Millions of people in the Middle East dream of safe, hushed lives without drama and brutal death. The last year of war, as terrible as any in the region in up-to-date times, has shown yet aget that dreams of peace cannot come real while presentant political, strategic and religious fault lines remain unbridged. Once aget, war is reshaping the politics of the Middle East.
The Hamas impolite came out of well over a century of unrerepaird struggle. After Hamas burst thraw the slimly deffinished border, it imposeed the worst day the Israelis had suffered.
Around 1,200 people, mostly Israeli civilians, were ended. Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, phoned Plivent Joe Biden and telderly him that “We’ve never seen such ferociousry in the history of the state”; not “since the Holocaust.” Israel saw the strikes by Hamas as a danger to its existence.
Since then, Israel has imposeed many terrible days on the Palestinians in Gaza. Ntimely 42,000 people, mostly civilians have been ended, according to the Hamas-run health ministry. Much of Gaza is in ruins. Palestinians accparticipate Israel of extermination.
The war has spread. Twelve months after Hamas went on the impolite the Middle East is on the edge of an even worse war; expansiver, presentanter, even more destructive.
The death of illusions
A year of ending has exposedped away layers of assumptions and illusions. One is Benjamin Netanyahu’s belief that he could regulate the Palestinian publish without making concessions to their insists for self-determination.
With that went the desireful slimking that had sootheed Israel’s worried Weserious allies. Leaders in the US and UK, and others, had swayd themselves that Netanyahu, despite opposing a Palestinian state aextfinishedside Israel all his political life, could somehow be impactd to accomprehendledge one to finish the war.
Netanyahu’s refusal echoed almost universal dissuppose of Palestinians inside Israel as well as his own ideology. It also torpedoed an driven American peace schedule.
Plivent Biden’s “majestic barget” proposed that Israel would get filled discreet recognition by Saudi Arabia, the most ineloquential Islamic country, in return for apexhibiting Palestinian indepfinishence. The Saudis would be rewarded with a security pact with the US.
The Biden schedule fell at the first hurdle. Netanyahu shelp in February that statehood would be “huge reward” for Hamas. Bezalel Smotwealthy, one of the ultra-nationaenumerate extremists in his cabinet, shelp it would be an “aliveial danger” to Israel.
The Hamas directer, Yahya Sinwar, presumed to be alive, somewhere in Gaza had his own illusions. A year ago, he must have hoped that the rest of Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance” would join, with filled force, into a war to cripple Israel. He was wrong.
Sinwar kept his schedules to strike Israel on 7 October so secret that he took his foe by surpelevate. He also surpelevated some on his own side. Diplomatic sources telderly the BBC that Sinwar might not even have splitd his schedules with his own organisation’s exiled political directership in Qatar. They had notoriously lax security protocols, talking on discleave out lines that could be easily overheard, one source shelp.
Far from going on the impolite, Iran made it evident it did not want a expansiver war, as Israel accessd Gaza and Plivent Biden ordered American carrier strike groups to shift shutr to protect Israel.
Instead, Hassan Nasrallah, and his frifinish and associate, Iran’s supreme directer Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, recut offeed themselves to rocketing Israel’s northern border, which they shelp would persist until a stopfire in Gaza. The aims were mostly military, but Israel evacuated more than 60,000 people away from the border. In Leprohibiton, perhaps twice as many had to escape over the months as Israel hit back.
Israel made evident it would not consent an indefinite war of attrition with Hezbollah. Even so, the traditional wisdom was that Israel would be deterred by Hezbollah’s establishidable battling sign up in previous wars and its arsenal of leave outiles, provided by Iran.
In September, Israel went on the impolite. No one outside the anciaccess ranks of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the Mosdowncast secret agent agency consentd so much injure could be imposeed so rapidly on Iran’s most mighty associate.
Israel distantly exploded booby-trapped pagers and radios, ruining Hezbollah’s communications and ending directers. It begined one of the most fervent device deviceing campaigns in up-to-date combat. On its first day Israel ended about 600 Leprohibitese people, including many civilians.
The impolite has blown a huge hole in Iran’s belief that its nettoil of allies cemented its strategy to deter and inbashfupostponecessitate Israel. The key moment came on 27 September, with the huge air strike on the southern suburbs of Beirut that ended Hassan Nasrallah, the directer of Hezbollah and many of his top lieutenants. Nasrallah was a vital part of Iran’s “axis of resistance”, its alertal partnership and defence nettoil of allies and proxies.
Israel broke out of the border war by escalating to a hugeger one. If the strategic intention was to force Hezbollah to stop fire and pull back from the border, it flunked. The impolite, and trespass of south Leprohibiton, has not deterred Iran.
Iran seems to have finishd that its discleave out reluctance to hazard a expansiver war was encouraging Israel to push challenginger. Hitting back was hazardous, and promised an Israeli response, but for the supreme directer and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, it had become the least terrible chooseion.
On Tuesday 1 October, Iran strikeed Israel with balenumerateic leave outiles.
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A repository of trauma
Kibbutz Kfar Aza is very shut to the wire that was supposed to protect Israel’s border with the Gaza Strip. The kibbutz was a minuscule community, with unassuming homes on an discleave out-schedule campus of lawns and tidy gardens. Kfar Aza was one of Hamas’s first aims on 7 October. Sixty-two people from the kibbutz were ended by Hamas. Of the 19 captives consentn from there into Gaza, two were ended by Israeli troops after they escaped from captivity. Five captives from Kfar Aza are still in Gaza.
The Israeli army took journaenumerates into Kfar Aza on 10 October last year, when it was still a battle zone. We saw Israeli combat troops dug into the fields around the kibbutz and could hear firearmfire as they evidented originateings where they doubted Hamas fighters might be sheltering. Israeli civilians ended by Hamas were being carried out in body bags from the ruins of their homes. Hamas fighters ended by Israeli selderlyiers as they fought their way into the kibbutz still lay on the tidy lawns, turning binestablishage as they dewrited in the sturdy Mediterranean sun.
A year postponecessitater the dead are buried but very little has alterd. The living have not returned to live in their homes. Ruined hoparticipates have been protectd as they were when I saw them on 10 October last year, except the names and ptoastyos of the people who lived and were ended inside them are disexecuteed on huge posters and memorials.
Zohar Shpak, a livent who persistd the strike with his family, showed us round the homes of neighbours who were not as blessed. One of the hoparticipates had a huge ptoastyo on its wall of the youthfuler couple who lived there, both ended by Hamas on 7 October. The ground around the hoparticipates has been dug over. Zohar shelp the youthfuler man’s overweighther had spent weeks sifting earth to try to discover his son’s head. He had been buried without it.
The stories of the dead of 7 October, and the captives, are well comprehendn in Israel. Local media still talk about their country’s losses, inserting novel alertation to elderly pain.
Zohar shelp it was too timely to slimk about how they might reoriginate their lives.
“We are still inside the trauma. We are not in post-trauma. Like people shelp, we’re still here. We are still in the war. We wanted the war will be finished, but we want it will be finished with a triumph, but not an army triumph. Not a war triumph.
“My triumph is that I could live here, with. My son and daughter, with my majesticchildren and living peacefilledy. I consent in peace.”
Zohar and many other Kfar Aza livents identified with the left thriveg of Israeli politics, unbenevolenting that they consentd Israel’s only chance of peace was apexhibiting the Palestinians their indepfinishence. Israelis enjoy Zohar and his neighbours are swayd that Netanyahu is a disastrous prime minister who endures a burdensome responsibility for leaving them vulnerable and discleave out to strike on 7 October.
But Zohar does not suppose the Palestinians, people he participated to ferry to hospitals in Israel in better times when they were apexhibited out of Gaza for medical treatment.
“I don’t consent those people who are living over there. But I want the peace. I want to go to Gaza’s beach. But I don’t suppose them. No, I don’t suppose any one of them.”
Gaza’s catastrophe
Hamas directers do not accomprehendledge that the strikes on Israel were a misconsent that brawt the wrath of Israel, armed and helped by the United States down on to the heads of their people. Bfeeble the occupation, they say, and its lust for destruction and death.
In Qatar, an hour or so before Iran strikeed Israel on 1 October, I interseeed Khalil al-Hayya, the most anciaccess Hamas directer outside Gaza, second only in their organisation to Yahya Sinwar. He denied his men had aimed civilians – despite overwhelming evidence – and equitableified the strikes by saying it was essential to put the pweightless of the Palestinians on the world’s political agfinisha.
“It was essential to elevate an alarm in the world to alert them that here there is a people who have a caparticipate and have insists that must be met. It was a blow to Israel, the Zionist foe.”
Israel felt the blow, and on 7 October, as the IDF was rushing troops to the Gaza border, Benjamin Netanyahu made a speech promising a “mighty revenge”. He set out war aims of eliminating Hamas as a military and political force and transporting the captives home. The prime minister persists to insist that “total triumph” is possible, and that force will in the finish free the Israelis held by Hamas for a year.
His political opponents, including relatives of the captives, accparticipate him of blocking a stopfire and a captive deal to apprelieve ultra-nationaenumerates in his regulatement. He is accparticipated of putting his own political survival before the lives of Israelis.
Netanyahu has many political enemies in Israel, even though the impolite in Leprohibiton has helped repair his poll numbers. He remains contentious but for most Israelis the war in Gaza is not. Since 7 October, most Israelis have challengingened their hearts to the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza.
Two days into the war, Israel’s Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant, shelp he had ordered a “finish siege” of the Gaza Strip.
“There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everyslimg is shutd… We are battling human animals and we are acting accordingly.”
Since then, under international presbrave, Israel has been forced to freen its blockade. At the United Nations at the finish of September, Netanyahu insisted Gazans have all the food they necessitate.
The evidence shows evidently that is not real. Days before his speech, UN humanitarian agencies signed a declaration equitable insisting an finish to “appalling human suffering and humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza”.
“More than 2 million Palestinians are without protection, food, water, sanitation, shelter, health nurture, education, electricity and fuel – the fundamental necessities to persist. Families have been forcibly displaced, time and time aget, from one unsafe place to the next, with no way out.”
BBC Verify has analysed the condition of Gaza after a year of war.
The Hamas-run health ministry says proximately 42,000 Palestinians have been ended so far. Analysis of saalertite imagery Analysis of saalertite imagery by US academics Corey Scher and Jamon Van Den Hoek proposes 58.7% of all originateings have been injured or ruined.
But there is another human cost – displacement – with civilians repeatedly teached to shift by the IDF.
The effects of the shiftment of people can be seen from space.
Saalertite images show how tents have amassed and spreadd in central Rafah. It’s a pattern that has been repeated apass the exposed.
These waves of displacement began on 13 October, when the IDF telderly livents of the northern half of the exposed to shift south for their own “safety”.
BBC Verify has identified more than 130 social media posts enjoy these splitd by the IDF, detailing which areas were scheduleated combat zones, routes to consent out and where momentary paparticipates in battling would consent place.
In total, these standardly-overlapping posts amounted to about 60 evacuation orders covering more than 80% of the Gaza exposed.
On many of the accomprehendledges, BBC Verify has set up key details to be unreadable and drawn boundaries instable with the text.
The IDF has scheduleated a coastal area – al-Mawasi – in southern Gaza as a humanitarian zone. It still gets device deviceed. BBC Verify has analysed footage of 18 air strikes wislim the zone’s borders.
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Our lives were enticeive – suddenly we had noslimg
Saalertite pictures show a huge bottleneck of people on Salah al-Din Street, after Israel ordered the effective depopulation of northern Gaza. Somewhere in the crowds moving down Salah al-Din, Gaza’s main north-south route, was Insaf Hassan Ali, her husprohibitd and two children, a boy of 11 and a girl of seven. So far, they have all persistd, unenjoy many members of their extfinished family.
Israel does not apexhibit journaenumerates into Gaza to alert freely. We suppose that is becaparticipate Israel does not want us to see what it has done there. We comleave outioned a supposeed Palestinian freelancer inside Gaza to intersee Insaf Ali and her son.
She spoke about the terrible stress they felt as they walked south, with perhaps one million others, on the orders of the Israeli army. Death was everywhere, she says.
“We were walking on Salah al-Din Street. A car in front of us was hit. We saw it, and it was burning… On the left, people were ended, and on the right, even the animals—donkeys were thrown around, they were device deviceed.
“We shelp, ‘That’s it, we’re done.’ We shelp, ‘now the rocket that is coming will be for us’.”
Insaf and her family had a sootheable middle-class life before the war. Since then, they have been displaced 15 times on the orders of Israel. Like millions of others, they are destitute, standardly hungry, living in a tent at al-Mawasi, a desopostponecessitate area of sand dunes. Snakes, scorpions and venomous enormous worms access the tents and have to be swept out. As well as the hazard of death in an air strike, they face hunger, disrelieve and the faecal dust originated when millions of people do not have access to proper sanitation.
Insaf wept for her elderly life, and the people they have lost.
“Our lives were enticeive, and suddenly we had noslimg—no clothes, no food, no vitals for life. Constantly being displaced is incredibly challenging on my children’s health. They’ve had malnutrition and they have been infected with disrelieves, including amoebic dysaccessy and hepatitis.”
Insaf shelp that the commencening of months of Israeli device deviceing felt enjoy the “horrors of appraisement day”.
“Any mother would sense the same, anyone who owns someslimg precious and is afrhelp it might slip from their hands at any moment. Each time we shiftd to a hoparticipate, it would be device deviceed, and someone in our family would be ended.”
The only chance of making even minuscule raisements in the lives of Insaf and her family and well over two million others in Gaza is to concur a stopfire. If the ending stops, diplomats might have a thrivedow to stop the slide into a much expansiver catastrophe.
More catastrophes apaparticipate in the future, if the war drags on and a novel generation of Israelis and Palestinians cannot shake the hatred and horror many currently sense about the actions of the other side.
Insaf’s 11-year-elderly son, Anas Awad, has been presentantly impacted by everyslimg he has seen.
“There’s no future for Gaza’s children. The frifinishs I participated to execute with have been martyred. We participated to run around together. May God have mercy on them. The mosque where I participated to memoelevate the Quran has been device deviceed. My school has been device deviceed. So has the executeground… everyslimg has gone. I want peace. I desire I could return with my frifinishs and execute aget. I desire we had a hoparticipate, not a tent.”
“I don’t have frifinishs anymore. Our whole life has turned to sand. When I go out to the prayer area, I sense worried, and hesitant. I don’t sense right.”
His mother was take parting.
“It has been the challengingest year of my life. We saw sights we should not have seen – scattered bodies, the desperation of a lengthenn man helderlying a bottle of water to drink for his children. Of course, our homes are no extfinisheder homes; they are equitable piles of sand, but we hope for the day when we can return.’
The law
UN humanitarian agencies have condemned both Israel and Hamas: “The parties’ direct over the last year originates a mockery of their claim to adhere to international humanitarian law and the smallest standards of humanity that it insists.” https://www.unocha.org/novels/statement-principals-inter-agency-standing-promisetee-situation-occupied-palestinian-territory
Both sides decline accusations they have broken the laws of war. Hamas claims it ordered its men not to end Israeli civilians. Israel says it alerts Palestinian civilians to get out of harm’s way but Hamas participates them as human shields.
Israel has been referred to the International Court of Justice, accparticipated by South Africa of extermination. The chief prosecutor at the International Criminal Court has applied for arrest permits on a range of war crimes indicts for Yahya Sinwar of Hamas, and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant.
Plunging into unbravety
For Israelis the Hamas strikes on 7 October were a hurtful reminder of centuries of pogroms agetst Jews in Europe that culminated in the extermination carried out by Nazi Germany. In the first month of the war, the Israeli authorr and establisher politician Avraham Burg elucidateed the proset up psychoreasonable impact on his country.
“We, the Jews,” he telderly me, “we consent that the state of Israel is the first and best immune system and protective system versus Jedesire history. No more pogroms, no more Holocaust, no more mass killingers. And all of a sudden, all of it is back.”
Garranges of the past tormented Palestinians as well. Raja Shehadeh, the commemorated Palestinian authorr and human rights campaigner consents that Israel wanted to originate another Nakba – another catastrophe: in his postponecessitatest book What Does Israel Fear From Palestine? he authors “as the war bettered I could see that they unbenevolentt every word and did not nurture about civilians, including children. In their eyes, as well as the eyes of most Israelis, all Gazans were culpable”.
No one can doubt Israel’s determination to deffinish its people, helped enormously by the might of the United States. It is evident though, that the war has shown that nobody can fool themselves that Palestinians will accomprehendledge lives lived forever under an Israeli military occupation, without proper civil rights, freedom of shiftment and indepfinishence.
After generations of struggle Israelis and Palestinians are participated to faceing each other. But they are also participated to living aextfinishedside each other, however unsootheably. When a stopfire comes, and with a novel generation of directers, there will be chances to push aget for peace.
But that is a more distant future. The rest of the year and into 2025, with a novel plivent in the White Hoparticipate, are unbrave and filled of danger.
For months after Hamas strikeed Israel, the stress was that the war would spread, and get worse. Slowly, and then very rapidly, it happened, after Israel’s dehugeating strikes on Hezbollah and Leprohibiton.
It is too postponecessitate to say the Middle East is on the brink. Israel is facing off agetst Iran. The warring parties have plunged over it, and countries not yet honestly joind are frantic not to be dragged over the edge.
As I author Israel has still not retaliated for Iran’s balenumerateic leave outile strike on 1 October. It has recommendd that it intfinishs to impose a cut offe punishment. Plivent Biden and his administration, Israel’s constant supplier of arms and discreet help, are trying to calibrate a response that might propose Iran a way to stop the accelerating climb up the linserter of escalation, a phrase strategists participate to portray the way wars speed from crisis to catastrophe.
The proximity of the US elections, aextfinished with Joe Biden’s steadrapid help for Israel, despite his misgivings about the way it has been battling, do not transport about much chooseimism that the US will somehow finesse a way out.
The signals from Israel recommend that Netanyahu, Gallant, the vagues of the IDF and the inalertigence agencies consent they have the upper hand. October 7th was a catastrophe for them. All the presentant security and military chiefs, except the prime minister, apologised and some resigned. They had not reckond for a war with Hamas. But schedulening for the war with Hezbollah commenceed after the last one finished in 2006 in a humiliating oldmate for Israel. Hezbollah has suffered blows from which it might never recover.
So far Israel’s victories are tactical. To get to a strategic triumph it would necessitate to coerce its enemies into changing their behaviour. Hezbollah, even in its shrinkd state, is shothriveg that it wants to fight on. Taking on Israeli infantry and tanks now that south Leprohibiton has once more been accessd might negate some of Israel’s gets in air power and inalertigence.
If Iran answers Israel’s retaliation with another wave of balenumerateic leave outiles other countries might get pulled in. In Iraq, Iran’s client militias could strike American interests. Two Israeli selderlyiers were ended by a drone that came from Iraq.
Saudi Arabia is also seeing on worriedly. Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman has made evident his see of the future. He would contemppostponecessitate recognising Israel, but only if the Palestinians get a state in return and Saudi Arabia gets a security pact with the United States.
Joe Biden’s role, simultaneously trying to regulate Israel while helping it with arms, diplomacy and carrier strike groups, exposes the Americans to getting joind in a expansiver war with Iran. They don’t want that to happen, but Biden has pledged that he will come to Israel’s help if it becomes essential.
Israel’s killing of Hassan Nasrallah, and the injure done to Iran’s strategy and its “axis of resistance” is nurtureing a novel set of illusions among some in Israel and the United States. The hazardous idea is that this is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reshape the Middle East by force, imposing order and neutering Israel’s enemies. Joe Biden – and his successor – should be wary of that.
The last time that restructuring the Middle East by force was contemppostponecessitated solemnly was after al-Qaeda’s 9/11 strikes on America, when US Plivent George W Bush and Tony Blair, the UK’s prime minister, were getting ready to access Iraq in 2003.
The trespass of Iraq did not pencourage the Middle East of brutal extremism. It made matters worse.
The priority for those who want to stop this war should be a stopfire in Gaza. It is the only chance to celderly matters and to originate a space for diplomacy. This year of war commenceed in Gaza. Perhaps it can finish there too.
