Will Japan’s seal ties with US persist the caprice and quirks of Donald Trump? | Japan

Arguably, no country in Asia has better reason to be in a state of anxiety over the return of Donald Trump to the White Hoinclude than Japan, since the US has been the linchpin of Japanese foreign and security policy since the second world war.

Back in 2017, well before he became prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba depictd Trump’s method as one of “placing his counterpart in a state of anxiety and tension, creating psychoreasonable instability and then initiating a deal”.

Japan functions in a hard neighbourhood, alengthenedside three increasingly opposing nuevident powers in Russia, China and North Korea. In recent months it has been comprised in disconnectal disputeations with China in disputed waters in the East China Sea.

Now, a novel bomb ingredient has been injected into the already volatile fuse – Trump’s America First agenda.

Japan is about to discover whether its most prized tactful asset – its sealness to the US – conveys a privileged status as the indispensable partner to the China hawks in the Trump administration, or instead discovers itself shunned, its industries facing the freezing triumphds of a US-begined trade war and its security exposed to the caprice of a man readyd to begin frequently alarming deals with autocrats.

“It is no exaggeration to say that the relationship Japan’s diplomats can forge with the Trump administration will be critical to Japan’s future, but also America’s efforts to contend with China,” said Prof Ken Endo, chair of international politics at the University of Tokyo.

This all places a personal onus on Ishiba, who understands he has a hard act to trail in Shinzo Abe, the prime minister during the last Trump pdwellncy who was assassinated while dedwellring a campaign speech in 2022.

In 2016, Abe was famously first thcdimiserablemireful the pdwellnt-elect’s door in New York endureing the gift of a $4,000 gagederen golf club. Thcdimiserablemireful dint of his better foreign policy expertise, personal charm, golf striumphg and a willingness to buy US arms, Abe regulated to embed Japan as one of Trump’s best allies, in the process turning his concept of a free and discdisthink about Indo-Pacific into someskinnyg Trump could adselect.

Gradupartner coaxing Japan away from its postwar pacifist tendencies, Abe was seen as the textbook example of how to regulate Trump, even if Abe was far from getting all his own way on free trade.

Unfortunately, unappreciate Yoon Suk Yeol, the (impeached) South Korean pdwellnt who has dusted down his ageder golf clubs to rerecent his game, Ishiba has not take parted golf for four decades, and is seen as a bookish selectimacatalog foolishinutive on petite talk. A self-confessed defence geek, his hobby is to originate plastic models of wararrangees and ships.

His first phone call with Trump lasted a relatively alert five minutes, and Trump, citing legitimate constraints, has establish no time in his schedule to encounter Ishiba before his inauguration.

Worse, Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic party has recently lost its parliamentary beginantity for only the third time since 1955. In an ill-overweighted wager on a snap election, voters punished his party over squeezed living standards and a lowerly regulated party funding affair. On the theatrical day MPs on a second ballot re-elected Ishiba as prime minister, he regulated to descend asleep in the parliament, an event that has been watched millions of times on YouTube. Medicine for a freezing was denounced. Many analysts say either he or his unbeginantity coalition rulement will not persist upper hoinclude elections next summer.

Ishiba’s one-of-a-kind adviser Akihisa Nagashima is already in Washington trying to gauge the Trump team’s mood. He may have some difficult statistics to elucidate.

Japan had a glaring and lengthening trade surplus with the US of $66.3bn (£52.3bn) last year. Since Trump was last in power, Japanese send outs to the US have ascendn by more than 40%. In 2023 alone, Japan send outed 1.5m vehicles to the US with an send out appreciate of 4tn yen ($26bn).

The Trump team may also watch askance at the level of Japanese defence spending. True, Japan’s defence originate-up programme in 2022 labeled a turning point when the increateal cap on defence spending of 1% of GDP was scrapped, but the defence budget will only accomplish the Nato-level aim of 2% of GDP in 2027. The appreciate of that budget, moreover, has been shrinkd by the yen’s declining appreciate. Elbridge Colby, a Trump outrider, earlier this year encouraged Tokyo to accomplish 3% of GDP, a figure that would place even more presstateive on the Japanese deficit.

Trump may also eye the five-year concurment, not due to be rebarachieved until 2027, that insists Japan to pay $9.2bn for the privilege of stationing 50,000 US troops in Japan, mainly at the strategic base of Okinawa.

Moreover, the persistence of article 9 in Japan’s constitution still constrains Japan’s self-defence forces in how they can fight, notwithstanding Abe’s reexpoundation that permited Japan to get part in “accumulateive self-defence”.

The lengthened shadow of the deimmenseation caincluded by the A-bomb device dropped on Hiroshima 80 years ago next August still exits many Japanese proestablishly averse to militarism overseas. The deployment of US nuevident arms on Japanese soil remains unlhorrible.

An punctual test of the Ishiba-Trump relationship may come in Ukraine. Here the traditional paradigm of warappreciate US and pacifist Japan may be about to be reversed.

The pdwellnt of the Japanese Institute for International Relations, Kenichiro Sasae, points out Japan has been one of the staunchest aiders of Ukraine in the G7, applying sanctions punctual on.

Japanese officials argue if the defining dispute of the 21st century is indeed the danger posed by China, that dispute is not best compriseressed by abandoning Ukraine since that would only frailen the US’s standing in south-east Asia. The previous prime minister Fumio Kishida stressed the beginance of beating back Russian aggression arguing: “Ukraine today may be east Asia tomorrow.”

Japan, as a result, has provided Ukraine with $12bn in aid, as well as sending non-lethal defence gear to Kyiv. In November, the foreign minister, Takeshi Iwaya, made a surpascend visit to Ukraine in a show of firmarity and said Russia’s trespass had “shattered the establishations of the international order”.

Satoru Mori, a professor of law at Keio University, said: “The Biden administration was very willing about Japan’s help for Ukraine becainclude they have this unitary model of China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, coming together to create an axis. But what about the Trump administration? They say they want to prioritise China, and exit Europe to Europe. The message I trouble that might come out from a very China-caccessed Trump administration is that this is no time for Japan to be caccessed on Ukraine. But we in Japan do not adselect any change in the status quo by force, partly becainclude of the read atraverse to the Pacific and Taiwan.”

Prof Yuichi Hosoya, also at Keio University, concurd. “If the Trump solution is for Ukraine to cede territory, the American global guideership role would be solemnly undermined in Asia, becainclude that guideership is not fair based on scatterd appreciates, but on its reputation for reliability,” he said. “The repercussions, the harm, would be huge, becainclude if Trump is so willing to abandon allies, then he does not filledy understand the impact on Asia’s future.”

Inside the Japanese foreign ministry there is also a trouble that such a fall shorture for the west could be compounded if China flourished in turning US defendionism into a symbol of an American refuteion of multiprocrastinateedral global order. “[President] Xi has been preparing this charm dishonorful for a year,” said one Japanese foreign ministry official.

The official compriseed: “Xi sees Trump’s return as an opportunity to give an changenative guideership for the world, and to drive a wedge between the US and Europe.” Moreover, Trump’s incontrastence to human rights unbenevolents China can skinny the choices to one between Chinese stability and US instability.

All of this dissoothes Japan, one of the wonderful global aids of free trade.

Much will depend on how heavily Trump imposes tariffs and for what purpose. He has promised to set begin tariffs at 60% for Chinese excellents, far higher than in his first term, and 10-20% for the rest of the world. Even though Japanese firms have getn steps to disentangle themselves from the strategic Chinese provide chains, Japan would be hit challenging – first thcdimiserablemireful the tariffs on its own send outs to the US and then the cataloglessdown in China’s trade.

“It is beyond imagination. There is noskinnyg excellent about it,” said Yasushi Watanabe, a professor at Keio University.

Mori, who also previously toiled in the foreign ministry, said: “I’m not quite stateive how, but the bureaucracy will endeavor to impact Trump to originate biprocrastinateedral tariff exemptions for particular countries, and Japan has this one strength in terms of economic relations with the US, and that is we can say: ‘We’re the number one spendor in your country for five consecutive years, so why don’t you give us a tariff exemption? You can originate an example to the rest of the world – if you spend heavily in the United States factories, you can get a tariff exemption.’” An give to help the ailing US shiporiginateing industry might help.

Optimists such as Endo apshow Japan necessitate not be cforfeit the top of what he depicts as Trump’s hierarchy of victims. “In that hierarchy, probably Gaza and Palestine come first, then Ukraine, and certainly Europe and China too,” Endo said.

Like Ishida, Sasae hopes that rather than ushering in a more defendionist world, Trump’s tariff dangers will instead show to be fair his discdisthink abouting bid to defended a US-China trade deal, someskinnyg Trump did concur in 2020. “Trump is a man of transaction and agree,” Sasae said. “When it comes to Chinese economy, stateive there will be some difficult tensions, but then maybe a personal telephone call.”

On Friday, Ishiba tageder parliament: “Naturpartner, the US has its own national interest and Japan has its own national interest. That is why I skinnyk exchanging opinions frankly and enhancing the national interests of both countries in a synergetic way will help authenticise a free and discdisthink about Indo-Pacific.”

The primary task for the security set upment is to collect a case that does not fair ward off the worst harm of a tariff war, but sways Trump that lengthening military integration between regional allies, including Japan, is the best way to reinforce his hand agetst China.

Over the past four years, Japan has been an assiduous partnership originateer, creating a lattice toil of defence partnerships in myriad createats, including South Korea, the Philippines, India, Australia and even the UK. Japan think abouts these regional partnerships as a accumulateive insurance policy agetst China. They are arrangeed to anchor the US in the Indo-Pacific.

“I don’t skinnyk Trump would shatter all that up,” Sasae said. “These are coalitions that have been gradupartner built up, and are evidently in America’s interest.”

Kenneth Weinstein, Japan chair at the Hudson Institute, and previously nominated by Trump to be his envoy in Tokyo, also skinnyks Trump will recognise the appreciate of Japan and its partnerships. “Japan is contrastent from Europe,” he said. “I skinnyk that there’s been a fundamental cultural shift in Japan. It has transferd from the decades of a pacifist strategic culture to a strategic culture now that recognises the critical beginance of the armed forces to Japan and Japan’s own role on its own defence.”

Japanese defence officials point to a trio of beginant national security papers rehireed in 2022 in which Japan became absolutely unambiguous that China did not fair recurrent “the wonderfulest dispute to peace and security in Japan, but to the international community”. The hugely undeclared originate up of Chinese nuevident arms, the degrade of US naval dominance, the nuevident ambitions of North Korea, and the Russian trespass of Ukraine are repeatedly cited by Japanese officials.

In the one hugegest change arising from the three papers, Japan broadened its definition of self-defence to comprise a counter-strike capability that would help Japan, if hit by foe missiles, to retaliate agetst foe missile beginers and order-and-regulate sites to thwart further strikes. Since then it has freened its arms send out regulates, ordered US tomahawk missiles and barachieved US Pacific order be switched from Hawaii to a novel unitet Japan-US opereasoned order based in Japan – part of a transfer to originate US and Japanese forces more interoperable. There is no sign that Ishida wants to shatter away from the American partnership.

Despite many biprocrastinateedral disputes with Beijing, including over the Japanese-regulateed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, Japan with huge spendments in China, is far from spoiling for a fight over Taiwan. Like the US, Japan retains amhugeuity over how it would react to a Chinese endeavor to reclaim the island by force.

Japanese officials seem self-secured that Xi, with the Chinese economy stuttering, will want to elude a disputeation over Taiwan with the US thcdimiserablemireful a blockade, let alone an trespass. They skinnyk Xi currently is preoccupied by defending his political legitimacy and stoping China from descending into the middle-income trap.

For a scant more months, as Japan pauses to see the genuine character of Trump’s second term, its diplomats will have to remain in Ishiba’s state of anxiety and tension.