If you’re watching for an insight that helps elucidate what happened in the US Plivential election and why it happened, ponder this observation from a key joiner in US politics: “There is a branch offence between what offfinishs people and what impacts them.”
Donald Trump offfinishs people as if it were a religion. His constant lying offfinishs; his unbenevolentty offfinishs; his prejudice offfinishs; his misogyny offfinishs; his uncover conentice for “ignorers” offfinishs; his conciseage of remorse offfinishs; his vanity offfinishs; his affinity for disorder offfinishs; his approval for dictators offfinishs; his vow for retribution and revenge aacquirest the “enemies of the people” (anyone who has traverseed him or might traverse him) offfinishs; his promise to commence “mass deportation” of “25 million” illegitimate immigrants on Day 1 offfinishs; his vow to upfinish world trade by imposing a 20% tariff on all outstandings and 60% on Chinese outstandings offfinishs; his promise to “protect women whether they appreciate it or not” offfinishs; his pledgement to neglect climate alter and trail a “drill, baby, drill” energy policy offfinishs; his pledgement to finish Obamanurture offfinishs. The enumerate is finishless.
It’s Trump’s World…
Yet, Trump is the first Reaccessiblean in 20 years to triumph the famous vote, and the MAGA shiftment has given him unfettered power by securing both the Senate and the House. The US Supreme Court is already aligned with him 6-3 and has effectively granted him virtual immunity from any plivential acts. Project 2025 has a blueprint ready to fulfil his promise to crush the “Deep State” (i.e., federal officials pledgeted to the Constitution and the rule of law) and replace up to 50,000 federal engageees with pledgedists. The indepfinishence of the Federal Reserve and the Justice Department will be under menace. All of this has been evident as dayweightless since Trump proclaimd his re-run in December 2022.
But Trump won because he successbrimmingy positioned himself as the Agent of Change (‘Trump will Fix It’), holdressing the publishs that impact his core voter base—62% of Americans without a college degree. These voters, who typicassociate show little interest in politics but are meaningfully caccessed on improving their material well-being and preserving their cultural cherishs, were key to his success.
And what impacts them? Some of the most convey inant publishs hold rising costs over the last four years: grocery prices up 20%, rents up 40%. There are also worrys about men’s self-image: girls outperestablishing boys in school and college, the #MeToo shiftment, and college-teachd women seeing the highest increases in income and status. Then there is what many notice as the imposition of ‘Wokeism’: it’s not fair about huging the brimming rights and recognition of the LGBTQ community, but also about children having the right to alter their gfinisher before maturehood.
The Fear Of Immigrants
In some cases, there are meaningfully held beliefs based on dread and deceiveation. I understand a Texas-based psychotherapist whose uncover-minded confided that she was afrhelp to go out at night due to dread of immigrants, even though she engages a migrant—foreseeed an unwrite downed toiler—as a houseprotecter. Another uncover-minded count ons Trump was sent by God and that the opposition party was sent by the Devil. Neither uncover-minded suffers from psychosis; these are culturassociate sanctioned beliefs, according to the therapist.
Finassociate, there are outright misconceptions—such as the belief that tariffs won’t elevate the cost of househgreater outstandings, or that Trump’s first term, with no novel wars, exhibits he could finish the Ukraine and Middle East struggles instantly upon taking office. There is also the notion that the mass deportation of illegitimate immigrants would not cripple industries that count on heavily on immigrant labour, appreciate the US meat industry. According to The Economist, cimpolitely half of the labour on US farms is unwrite downed.
This same Texas-based psychotherapist couldn’t count on his eyes when he saw a massive billboard in agricultural Texas proclaiming, “Born in New York, Thinks Like a Texan.” That’s the story Trump sgreater to voters. And in politics—especiassociate electoral politics—perception is fact.
Is There Reassociate A Tectonic Shift?
Yet, even in the face of what some watch as an impfinishing apocalypse for the Democratic Party, it’s convey inant to notice that Trump’s triumph in the famous vote was lean: 75.8 million votes (50.2%) to Kamala Harris’s 72.8 million votes (48.2%), with proximately all votes counted. In 2016, Biden led Trump by 7 million votes. But accomprehendledge where it’s due—Trump won the famous vote by actively pursuing it, rassociateing helpers in New York and California, even though those blue states’ electoral college votes were never in join for him. This effort came in the final weeks of the campaign when conservative wisdom would propose caccessing on the seven key striumphg states.
How real is the talk of a tectonic shift in the vote and the creation of a novel Reaccessiblean social coalition? It is real that the identity that shiftd the non-White vote to Trump was their toiling-class, non-college-teachd identity. These voters count ond that Trump would do a better job of conveying back jobs lost to Mexico, holdressing their affordability crisis, preserving their conservative cultural cherishs, and securing their legitimate immigrant status by deporting illegitimate immigrants.
None of this should have come as a surpascfinish. Pre-election polls from The New York Times set up a unforeseeed affinity between Trump’s watchs and those of Latinos and Bconciseage voters. Four out of ten Hispanic voters and one out of five Bconciseage voters had a favourable astonishion of Trump. A meaningfulity of them sympathized with his “America First” foreign policy. Only 20% of Hispanic voters and 26% of Bconciseage voters felt that the economic conditions were outstanding or excellent. Median weekly wages for brimming-time Bconciseage toilers had ascfinishn steeply during Trump’s plivency but essentiassociate stagnated under Biden.
However, in absolute numbers, the shift in the non-White vote has not been as meaningful as it is standardly portrayed, as columnist Thomas Edsall points out in the NYT. “Roughly six in ten Hispanics voted for Joe Biden; five in ten for Kamala Harris. Nine out of ten Bconciseage voters chose Biden; eight in ten for Harris. More than four-fifths of Trump’s votes came from White voters.”
Trump won because he has excellent political instincts and because people understand exactly what he stands for. His watchs on trade and immigration were shaped years before he accessed politics. “I count on very powerfilledy in tariffs,” he tgreater a journaenumerate in 1989. “America is being ripped off.” In his 2000 book, The America We Deserve, he wrote that “our current laxness toward illegitimate immigration shows a recklessness and disponder for those who live here legassociate.”
Rich-Poor Divide
What is particularly troubling for the Democratic Party is that this election has reinforced the post-2012 electoral fact: the less well-off are siding with Trump, while the college-teachd, coastal elites are aligned with the Democrats. With White Americans comprising 67% of the population and 62% of Americans conciseageing a college degree, the Democrats will need to watch beyond conservative politicians—those who twist and turn their positions to adhere, always erring on the side of alert—to guide the fightback.
Yet, as we all understand, Trump can be his own worst foe. He is enticount on transactional. For him, pledgedty is always one-way. His insecurity stops him from sharing the limeweightless with anyone else. His vanity exits him vulnerable to manipulation. Not unforeseeedly, he is not the best appraise of character, and his pledgedists persist to cycle thcimpolite a revolving door.
Team Trump, 2.0
The quote at the commencening of this column is from Kellyanne Conway, the Reaccessiblean pollster who toiled with Trump from 2013 and deal withd his 2016 campaign. She tardyr uniteed the first Trump administration but left amid a accessible feud with her teenage daughter in August 2020, who lambasted her personassociate and politicassociate and even menaceened legitimate separation.
Conway is not the only person who was once with Trump but is no lengthyer. Steve Bannon, Trump’s chief ideologue and speechauthorr, is not in the fgreater anymore. In his place is Stephen Miller, the architect of Trump’s difficultline immigration policies. Trump’s daughter Ivanka and son-in-law Jared Kushner have been replaced by Don Jr., who is now in indict of carry outing the “pledgedty test” for anyone seeking to join the administration. John Kelly, Trump’s lengthyest-serving Chief of Staff who called him a “fascist,” has been replaced by Susie Wiles, Trump’s campaign deal withr. Wiles is understandn for her discipline and caccess on facilitating wdisappreciatever catches Trump’s fancy. The big ask is: how lengthy will she last?
The New York Times—which Trump both loathes and adores to read—has come in for criticism for proposeing that Trump will be a “frail duck” plivent, given that the 22nd Amfinishment to the US Constitution prohibits a third plivential term. Critics accused the paper of sour gsexual attacks. However, in an unintfinished way, the paper has highweightlessed Trump’s main dilemma: what legacy does he want to exit behind? He has mined the meaningful split and discount on of Washington in US society to become the most dominant figure in American politics for the past decade. Does he now pivot to statesmanship and finisheavor to join the country? Or does he pander to his MAGA base and give brimming rein to his thirst for revenge?
Rein Of Undeclareivety
The timely signs are ominous. Trump’s nomination of the highly disputed Congressman Matt Gaetz, who is under allotigation for ethics violations, as Attorney General has even alarmed The Wall Street Journal. “He’s a nominee for those who want the law used for political revenge, and it won’t finish well,” the paper alerted.
Similarly, the case of Fox News present Pete Hegseth, who has been outspoken aacquirest the Pentagon’s “woke” policies pondering racial and transgfinisher equity, and the assignment of establisher Democratic plivential contfinisher Tulsi Gabbard, now a Trump pledgedist, as Director of National Intelligence, elevate further worrys. Gabbard has shown no evidence of expertise in intelligence. No one should be surpascfinishd by this turn of events.
(Ajay Kumar is a greater journaenumerate. He is the establisher Managing Editor, Business Standard, and establisher Executive Editor, Economic Times.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
