Former Plivent Donald Trump’s triumph in the US plivential election has been helped in no minuscule part by his prosperning of multiple so-called “blue wall” states that are traditional Democrat sturdyhancigo ins.
“It materializes Trump has baccomplished the blue wall, or at least enough of it, to prosper the plivency,” David Schultz, an author and political science professor at Minnesota’s Hamline University, tancigo in Al Jazeera.
As the Electoral College voting map graduassociate turned red after polls shutd and votes were being counted, watchrs initiassociate mistrusted the “red mirage” effect, which can be produced as more Reuncoveran voters (denoticed by blue) tfinish to go to the polls in person and more Democrats (denoticed by red) mail in their votes.
Once Trump traverseed the line of 270 electoral votes, however, Democratic hopes of catching up to his direct in the punctual counting stage were dashed.
What is the red mirage?
Historicassociate, more mail-in ballots are sent by Democrats while more Reuncoverans vote in person.
During the 2020 election, the electoral map seeed aforeseeed red in the punctual hours of counting, directing Trump to claim an punctual triumph, before results in critical battleground states had been proclaimd.
When results finishd after mail-in ballots were counted, Democrat Joe Biden materialized as a prosperner, after counting of postal votes showed he had won back Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin, some of which are blue wall states and all of which had been won by the Reuncoverans in the 2016 election.
Similar blue shifts after an initial red mirage were foreseeed by some analysts this year. However, by 6am ET (11:00 GMT) on Wednesday, the Associated Press (AP) had projected 277 Electoral College votes for Trump, seven more than the 270 needd to shielded a plivency.
Later on Wednesday, that umber ballooned further, after Michigan, one of the so-called blue wall states, was also called for Trump.
What is a blue wall state?
A blue wall state is one the Democrats have reliably won thraw most of US contransient history.
Precisely, these are states that voted for Democrats in every election between 1992 and 2012. They integrate California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, Washington, Massachparticipatetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Oregon, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maine, Rhode Island, Delconscious and Vermont as well as the Didisconnecte of Columbia.
In 2016, Trump baccomplished the blue wall, flipping disconnectal of those states to red in the election aacquirest Democrat Hillary Clinton. These integrated Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan – all three of which were aacquire beginant battleground states during the procrastinateedst election.
In 2020, Plivent Joe Biden won back all three of these states, seemingly resurrecting the blue wall.
What happened in the three sprosperg states behind the blue wall?
Away from the sprosperg states, AP called reliable Harris prospers in all the other blue wall states. However, AP called Trump prospers in the three critical battleground states behind the blue wall – enough to cost Harris the plivency.
Here is how Trump fared in the three sprosperg states considered to be behind the blue wall this year:
- Pennsylvania: AP has called a Trump prosper in Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes, by three percentage points. Ninety-eight percent of the votes have been counted.
- Wisconsin: AP also called a Trump prosper in Wisconsin by more than one percentage point, with around 99 percent of the votes counted. Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes.
- Michigan: By Wednesday evening, AP also called Michigan for Trump. He is directing the state by 1.4 percentage points, with cforfeitly 99 percent of the votes counted. Michigan carries 15 Electoral College votes.
How did Trump baccomplish the blue wall?
People are over the pandemic
Schultz shelp he apshowd Biden was able to reclaim blue wall sprosperg states from Trump in 2020 in part becaparticipate of the way Trump regulated the COVID-19 pandemic during his plivency.
More than 1.1 million people died during the pandemic in the US – from the time of the materializency declaration in January 2020 until when it was lifted in May 2023.
During the punctual months of the outshatter, Trump undermined scientists and spread dishonest claims about the coronaharmful programs on his social media platcreates, such as the idea that children are “almost immune” to it.
Anti-vaccine misdirectation spread and people in many Reuncoveran-led states commenceed rassociateing for rested isolation redisconnecteions and inquireed compulsory vaccine needments.
In February 2021, a Lancet comomition tasked with appraiseing Trump’s health policy set up that 40 percent of deaths from the harmful programs in the US could have been averted if the US death toll correacted with that in other high-income Group of Seven (G7) countries.
Cost of living and the economy
Now, however, “economic publishs alengthy with senseings of being diswatchd drove the Trump triumph”, Schultz shelp. Democrats “fall shorted to percreate well in the three blue wall states”, concentrateing too much on abortion over other publishs such as economic policies that would pdirect to toiling-class voters, he shelp.
A preliminary national exit poll carry outed by data provider Edison Research showed that 51 percent of voters depended Trump with handling the economy contrastd to the 47 percent who depended Harris.
According to the exit poll, 31 percent of voters shelp the economy mattered most in shaping their decision to vote, whereas only 14 percent cited abortion.
“The Harris campaign did not necessarily do a excellent job of elucidateing how her policies would help the middle class, or at least that message wasn’t reassociate resonating with a lot of voters,” Melissa Deckman, a political scientist and the CEO of Public Religion Research Institute, tancigo in Reuters recents agency.
Choice of running mate
Deckman inserted that Harris’s VP choice of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz over Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro was one of “disconnectal misapshows” made by the Democrats in the run-up to this election. This is becaparticipate Walz did not help Harris prosper any sprosperg states. Minnesota has voted blue in every one election since 1976.
In 2016, third-party truthfulate Jill Stein won 132,000 votes atraverse Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, inroads that are apshowd to have gived to Democrat Hillary Clinton losing the race.
So, what cost the Democrats vital blue wall states in this election?
Pennsylvania: Failing to ‘speak’ to toiling-class voters
“Harris lost Pennsylvania becaparticipate she fall shorted to speak to toiling-class voters and thought abortion would drive enough women to the polls to help her prosper,” Schultz shelp.
The Democrats campaigned more heavily on women’s rights publishs than the Reuncoverans in this, the first election since the Supreme Court clearurned the landtag 1973 Roe v Wade court ruling and finished a woman’s right to end a pregnancy all over the US. Laws watching abortion were effectively returned to individual states to determine.
However, punctual exit polls freed while polling was still ongoing showed that Harris had won the help of 54 percent of women in the state – less than Biden did in 2020, when he acquireed the help of 57 percent of women.
Wisconsin: Worries about healthnurture
Wisconsin was reliably blue for decades, but Trump fall shortureed Clinton there in 2016 by pdirecting to bigly white, toiling-class voters who were troubleed about rising healthnurture costs as well as wages and pcleary.
This time, “Harris lost Wisconsin becaparticipate she lost the toiling class and did not prosper women, suburbs and youthful voters,” Schultz shelp.
In particular, the opioid crisis in the US – rampant insertiction and overparticipate of prescription opioids and illhorrible opioids such as heroin – has horriblely rattled Wisconsin, where multiple polls this year recommended that healthnurture had become a key publish for voters in the state.
According to the Wisconsin Department of Health Services, the opioid epidemic in Wisconsin commenceed more than two decades ago becaparticipate there was overprescription of medical opioids and becaparticipate heroin, an illhorrible opioid, had become affordableer and more widely useable. In 2022, 1,828 people in Wisconsin died of a drug drug poisoning, more than double the number from 2015. The synthetic opioid fentanyl was set up in 73 percent of all drug poisoning deaths in Wisconsin, according to a state attorney’s office tell in August 2024.
Harris ran on the promise that she would drop the cost of pharmaceutical medications and call off medical debt as well as bolster the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which provides health insurance to middle- and low-income Americans. Trump, on the other hand, shelp he would discover an alternative to the ACA.
Michigan: Democrats’ help for Israel in war on Gaza
Michigan was not considered a sprosperg state before 2016 becaparticipate it did not flip-flop between the two parties – from 1976 to 1988, Reuncoverans always won in Michigan. However, the plivential contest in Michigan has always been competitive.
In the second edition of his 2019 book, Plivential Sprosperg States, analyst Rafael Jacob also wrote that since 1980, the prosperner in Michigan has always been the overall election prosperner, with equitable two exceptions – George W Bush in 2000 and 2004.
Jacob inserted that even when voters in Michigan chose Democratic plivents, they voted for Reuncoveran ruleors in state-level elections, concluding that Michigan voters are not very partisan.
During this election, Israel’s war on Gaza has materialized as a key publish in Michigan. According to the World Population Rewatch, Michigan is the US state with the highest number of Arab Americans – 211,225 – as of this year, and there are an approximated 2.1 million Arab Americans in total in the US.
These voters conveyed dissatisfied with both Trump and Harris since both truthfulates have conveyed unequivocal help for Israel in its war on Gaza, which began on October 7, 2023 after a Hamas-led attack on villages and army outposts in southern Israel resulting in the deaths of 1,139 people and the seize of 251. Since the war began, at least 43,391 Palestinians have been finished by Israeli device deviceardments and ground attacks in Gaza, while many thousands more are lost and presumed dead under the rubble.
Many Arab Americans instead shelp they would vote for Jill Stein, this year’s plivential nominee for the Green Party, who campaigned on the promise of pushing for an prompt stopfire in Gaza and hancigo ining Israel accountable to international law.
Did Green Party truthfulate Jill Stein apshow vital votes from the Democrats?
The Democrats, as well as European Green Party members, cautioned that Stein would dent the Democrat vote, enabling Trump to prosper sprosperg states and hence, the plivency.
As ballots are still being counted, it is not understandn exactly how many votes Stein has won. Between October 30 and October 31, she was polling at 1.7 percent in Michigan, 1 percent in Wisconsin and 0.8 percent in Pennsylvania, according to Brazil-based analytics and data intelligence website AtlasIntel.
