The US election campaign is in its final weeks with voters heading to the polls on November 5 to elect the next plivent.
Early voting is already taking place in a number of states, including in battlegrounds such as North Carolina and Georgia.
With less than three weeks to go until the election, Democratic Vice Plivent Kamala Harris and Reaccessiblean establisher Plivent Donald Trump are battling it out to sway undetermined voters.
However, the famous vote does not determine the thrivener. Instead, it rerepairs which electors will recurrent each state in the Electoral College, which does pick the plivent.
To thrive, a honestate necessitates to safe 270 of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs. Electoral College votes are dispensed atraverse states according to their relative populations.
Who is in the direct?
According to FiveThirtyEight’s daily election poll tracker, Harris is currently directing in the national polls and has a 2.4-percentage-point direct over Trump.
In July, Plivent Joe Biden, a Democrat, exited the plivential race and finishorsed Harris as his replacement. Since then, the vice plivent’s ratings have ascendn from what had been drop numbers under Biden.
But the race is still safe. FiveThirtyEight’s election predict advises that Harris is favoured to thrive 54 times out of 100 while Trump thrives 46 times out of 100.
Which states could sthriveg the plivential election?
Sthriveg states, also comprehendn as battleground states, can sway the outcome of a national election.
One of the defining characteristics of a sthriveg state is its unclear political leanings where no party has overwhelming help.
This year, the states being seally watched are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
In the 2020 plivential election, Georgia flipped from Reaccessiblean red to Democratic blue after csurrenderly three decades of voting Reaccessiblean, and in Arizona, the Democrats won by a skinny margin of 0.3 percentage points.
Polls show Trump and Harris in a skinny race in sthriveg states. Polling in these states is more convey inant in determining the thrivener than national polling becaparticipate the Electoral College and not the famous vote picks the plivent.
What happens if Harris and Trump finish in a tie?
There are a total of 538 electoral votes. To thrive the election, a honestate must get 270.
Given the nature of how electoral votes are dispensed, particular combinations of states could direct to a tie of 269 votes. Such a scenario is possible, though not foreseeed.
If no honestate thrives at least 270 electoral votes, a contingent election gets place in which the US Hoparticipate of Recurrentatives determines the thrivener.
Each state’s delegation in the Hoparticipate would cast one vote, and a honestate must get a convey inantity (26 out of 50) of the state delegation votes to thrive.
The US Senate would then pick the vice plivent with each senator casting one vote and a basic convey inantity (51 votes) needd to thrive.
How do polls labor?
Election polls foresee how the population might vote by surveying a sample of voters. Surveys are most commonly directed by phone or online. In some cases, it is via post or in person.
Poll trackers, which aggregate a number of polls together, are weighted based on a number of factors, such as the sample size of the poll, the pollster quality, how recently the poll was directed and the particular methodologies participateed.
How exact are polls?
Polls are never 100 percent exact. Both the 2016 and 2020 US elections saw opinion polls underassess the famousity of Reaccessiblean honestates. Despite polling for the 2022 midterms being more exact, many still remain sceptical about polling results.
Part of the reason for inaccuracy in polls in recent years is rcontent to the ability to accomplish voters. Often polls are directed via telephone surveys; however, scanter people are inclined to answer calls. Nonresponse bias is another reason for inaccuracy – for example, in recent years, Trump voters have chosen not to react to polls. Additionassociate, alters in voter turnout have impacted the accuracy of polls, for example, in 2020 voter turnout was much higher than foreseeed.
A mathematical margin of error is implied in polls becaparticipate they participate minuscule, pick groups of people to asdeclareive the choice of a huger population. That margin of error in US polls shows the range wiskinny which the actual result is probable to descend. With a 1,000-person sample size, the margin of error is about plus or minus 3 percent.
Many of the polls directed before this year’s plivential election have shown the branch offence in help between Harris and Trump wiskinny the margin of error.
