ING: Trump trade war could push the eurozone economy into economic downturn.
A looming novel trade war triggered by Donald Trump could push the eurozone economy from sluggish lengthenth into “a brimming-blown economic downturn”.
That’s the watch of the spendment prohibitk ING, which troubles the economic downturn could commence even before Trump – who has shelp he wants to impose a 10% tariff on all non-US excellents – is sworn in next January.
ING says:
The already struggling German economy, which heavily relies on trade with the US, would be particularly challenging hit by tariffs on European automotives. Additionpartner, uncertainty about Trump’s stance on Ukraine and NATO could undermine the recently stabilised economic confidence indicators apass the eurozone.
Even though tariffs might not impact Europe until procrastinateed 2025, the renoveled uncertainty and trade war troubles could drive the eurozone economy into economic downturn at the turn of the year.
ING also foresees that the European Central Bank will need to do the “weighty lifting” of geting Europe’s economy by cutting rates, while politicians postpone to see what policies Trump actupartner carry outs.
It elucidates:
With these election results, a 50bp rate cut at the ECB’s December encountering has become more foreseeed, with foreseeations of the deposit rate dropping to at least 1.75% by punctual summer, possibly chaseed by further easing towards the end of 2025.
Even though Trump's tariffs might not impact Europe until procrastinateed 2025, the renoveled uncertainty and trade war troubles could drive the eurozone economy into economic downturn at the turn of the year.https://t.co/mPyiauahuO
— ING Economics (@ING_Economics) November 6, 2024
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Even though Trump’s tariffs might not impact Europe until procrastinateed 2025, the renoveled uncertainty and trade war troubles could drive the eurozone economy into economic downturn at the turn of the year.https://t.co/mPyiauahuO
— ING Economics (@ING_Economics) November 6, 2024
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Bloomberg, who have crunched the numbers, elucidates:
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The net worth of billionaires led by Tesla’s Elon Musk, the world’s wealthiest person, sencouraged by $63.5 billion on Wednesday, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
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Musk alone compriseed $26.5 billion to his pot. Amazon.com’s Jeff Bezos and Oracle’s Larry Ellison were also among the top geters. It’s the hugegest daily incrrelieve since Bloomberg’s wealth index began in 2012.
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Much of the gets for the ultra-wealthy come down to a sencourage in US stocks, underscoring bets that Trump, on his return to the White Hoengage, will carry out an agenda prefering shrink taxes and less regulation. The S&P 500 jumped 2.5% in the best post-election carry outance in history, while the US dollar also geted.
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The net worths of the world’s 10 wealthyest people have already sencouraged $64 billion since Trump’s election, according to Bloomberg.
Musk alone saw his fortune jump $26.5B.
It’s also worth noting how many of these have ties to tech companies. pic.twitter.com/jc3nba4LQZ
— Marty Swant (@martyswant) November 7, 2024
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Taiwan will help companies transfer production from China to shun the menace of tariffs imposed by Donald Trump next year, its economy minister Kuo Jyh-huei shelp today.
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Speaking in parliament, Kuo shelp the impact of any Trump tariffs on China for Taiwanese firms manufacturing there would be “quite huge”, Reuters inestablishs.
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Kuo compriseed:
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“We will as soon as possible come up with help for Taiwan companies to transfer their production bases.”
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Trump has menaceened to impose tariffs of 60% on US transport ins of Chinese excellents, which would menaceen lengthenth at the world’s second-hugest economy.
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Economics minister foresees Trump tariffs will hit Taiwanese companies in China challengingest https://t.co/zWtIfv28Ae
— Taiwan News (@TaiwanNewsEN) November 7, 2024
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Donald Trump’s election prosper and the menace of tariffs will force policyproducers to be more pimpolitent as they transport down interest rates, the European Central Bank’s vice plivent Luis de Guindos has shelp.
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De Guindos shelp the heightened uncertainty chaseing Trump’s reapprehfinish of the White Hoengage unbenevolentt the menace of trade tariffs could be compriseed to the uncertainty produced by the war in Ukraine and the middle east struggle.
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Speaking at University College London on Wednesday, he shelp the ECB was probable to get “petite steps, low steps” in its approach to transporting down interest rates, scotching speculation of a cut in the cost of borroprosperg at the central prohibitk’s next encountering by 0.5 percentage points from 3.75%.
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Some analysts had specuprocrastinateedd that the ECB would transfer rapidly to bolster the eurozone economy ahead of menaceened tariff incrrelieves on European and Chinese excellents chaseing Trump’s inaguration in January.
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“Uncertainty is on the ascfinish,” de Guindos shelp.
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It is huge. And becaengage of that you need to be pimpolitent.
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De Guindos, who was the first member of the ECB’s 26-mighty ruleing council to reply to Trump’s electiion, shelp it will get time to appraise how trade policies under Trump will impact the economy.
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“If you ask me, are you going to react promptly? — No,” he shelp.
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What we will do is we will integrate into our projections the trade policy that is proclaimd by the novel US administration. And we will get into ponderation all the elements. Trade policy, plus the evolution of need, plus the evolution of energy prices.
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But he compriseed: “Tariffs will impact lengthenth adversely and inflation adversely.”
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In the unbenevolenttime he shelp policyproducers would persist to be guided by data and watch particularly shutly at its prohibitk lending survey to choose whether firms are receiving the loans they need to increase spendment.
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He shelp prohibitk lending was feeding thcdisesteemful to the authentic economy chaseing two cuts in interest rates by the ECB, but inflation and economic lengthenth had sluggished rapider than foreseeed.
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He shelp it was evident from the US election that inflation had carry outed a key role.
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It’s quite evident that inflation is a tax the low income people, becaengage it’s quite evident that they devour the huge part of their incomes. And they devour the charitable of items where prices have been rising the most.
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And even though you understand it’s evident that the inflation rate is declining, hoengagehageders and devourrs, watch at prices that are 20% or 30% higher than two years ago.
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Investors and economists are bracing for further economic pain in Europe from a second Donald Trump plivency that could guide to hefty tariffs on European ships into the US.
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Berenberg prohibitk is cautioning this morning that Trump’s return to the White Hoengage implies “ponderable trade policy hazards and geopolitical uncertainty” for European businesses.
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Germany – where the rulement has collapsed chaseing the unforeseeedly sacking of the finance minister yesterday – is particularly exposed.
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Holger Schmieding, Berenberg’s chief economist, says:
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We presume that Trump will initipartner impose only pickive but headline-grabbing tariffs, while menaceening to go much further if China and Europe do not advise him transport inant concessions in negotiations. That would be akin to his approach in 2017-20.
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Viewed in isolation, such an escalation of trade tensions could shrink 2025 lengthenth in the Eurozone by c0.3 percentage points and in heavily exposed Germany by as much as c0.5 percentage points as uncertainty weighs on business confidence and spendment.
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However, the eurozone should advantage from the “momentary spilcherishr from more US domestic need” and a mightyer US dollar, which produces euro-priced excellents more competitive.
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As a result, Berenberg has only trimmed its 2025 annual lengthenth foresees unpretentiously. Growth in the eurozone next year has been shrinked from 1.1% to 1.0%, for France from 0.8% to 0.7%, and for Italy from 0.9% to 0.8%.
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Germany will probable be hit challenginger, with lengthenth of fair 0.3% instead of 0.5% next year, it comprises.
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A looming novel trade war triggered by Donald Trump could push the eurozone economy from sluggish lengthenth into “a brimming-blown economic downturn”.
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That’s the watch of the spendment prohibitk ING, which troubles the economic downturn could commence even before Trump – who has shelp he wants to impose a 10% tariff on all non-US excellents – is sworn in next January.
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ING says:
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The already struggling German economy, which heavily relies on trade with the US, would be particularly challenging hit by tariffs on European automotives. Additionpartner, uncertainty about Trump’s stance on Ukraine and NATO could undermine the recently stabilised economic confidence indicators apass the eurozone.
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Even though tariffs might not impact Europe until procrastinateed 2025, the renoveled uncertainty and trade war troubles could drive the eurozone economy into economic downturn at the turn of the year.
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ING also foresees that the European Central Bank will need to do the “weighty lifting” of geting Europe’s economy by cutting rates, while politicians postpone to see what policies Trump actupartner carry outs.
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It elucidates:
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With these election results, a 50bp rate cut at the ECB’s December encountering has become more foreseeed, with foreseeations of the deposit rate dropping to at least 1.75% by punctual summer, possibly chaseed by further easing towards the end of 2025.
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Even though Trump's tariffs might not impact Europe until procrastinateed 2025, the renoveled uncertainty and trade war troubles could drive the eurozone economy into economic downturn at the turn of the year.https://t.co/mPyiauahuO
— ING Economics (@ING_Economics) November 6, 2024
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Good morning, and greet to our rolling coverage of business, the financial tagets and world economy.
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After yesterday’s election drama, monetary policy produces a greet return to the stage with interest rate decisions in the UK and US.
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The Bank of England is expansively foreseeed to cut base rate today; from 5% to 4.75%.
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With CPI inflation and wage lengthenth both continuing to cageder, the Bank should experience brave it can adfair its redisjoineive policy stance.
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To produce the decision, the BoE must weigh up the implications of last week’s UK budget, which lifted taxes, spending and borroprosperg.
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But spendors are brave that its Monetary Policy Committee will vote to shrink rates – a quarter-point cut is a 95% probability, according to the procrastinateedst money taget pricing.
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Ranjiv Mann, ageder repaired income portfolio regulater at AllianzGI, says:
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In the low term, although BOE ruleor Andrew Bailey recommendd recently that it may be too punctual to proclaim prosper on the fight agetst inflation given some trouble about the stickiness of services inflation, we leank that a transport inantity of MPC members will still favour cutting rates in November.
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The BoE will also be pondering the outcome of the US election, and the implications of alters to US trade policy.
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As must the Federal Reserve! It is also foreseeed to cut borroprosperg costs by a quarter-point, when the US cental prohibitk’s policyproducers encounters today.
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Donald Trump’s pro-lengthenth policies, such as tax cuts and tariffs, are probable to guide to higher inflation in the US, which ought to depart less room for interest rate cuts.
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Ipek Ozkardeskaya, ageder analyst at Swissquote Bank, says:
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The Federal Reserve is foreseeed to proclaim a 25bp cut today, but the policy beyond today’s decision must be readfaired accordingly.
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The foreseeation, so far, was that the Fed would cut today by 25bp, and deinhabitr another 25bp cut in December, and a brimming point cut next year. Now, the December cut is on a slick ground and the Fed should not ponder more than 2-3 rate cuts next year. That’s – at least – the policy response that you would reasonably foresee from a central prohibitk as an economist.
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The agenda
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8.30am GMT: Eurozone produceion PMI inestablish for October
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Noon GMT: Bank of England interest rate decision
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12.30pm GMT: Bank of England press conference
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1.30pm GMT: US weekly joconsecrate claims
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7pm GMT: Federal Reserve interest rate decision
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7.30pm GMT: Federal Reserve press conference
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Key events
Mark Haefele, chief spendment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, foresees more taget turbulence as Donald Trump’s policy proposals get shape:
“Markets have commenceed to digest Trump’s prosper, with the initial response pointing to foreseeations of mightyer lengthenth, higher inflation, a sluggisher pace of interest rate cuts, and trade tariffs.
As more detailed policy proposals aascfinish from the Trump transition team, spendors should brace for further sprospergs ahead. We advise spendors to be ready to engage any outsized taget reactions to produce mightyer lengthy-term portfolios.”
Bloomberg: Trump prosper ignites record $64bn get for world’s 10 wealthyest people
The fortunes of the ten wealthyest people in the world sencouraged by a daily record yesterday after Donald Trump won a second term as plivent.
Bloomberg, who have crunched the numbers, elucidates:
The net worth of billionaires led by Tesla’s Elon Musk, the world’s wealthiest person, sencouraged by $63.5 billion on Wednesday, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Musk alone compriseed $26.5 billion to his pot. Amazon.com’s Jeff Bezos and Oracle’s Larry Ellison were also among the top geters. It’s the hugegest daily incrrelieve since Bloomberg’s wealth index began in 2012.
Much of the gets for the ultra-wealthy come down to a sencourage in US stocks, underscoring bets that Trump, on his return to the White Hoengage, will carry out an agenda prefering shrink taxes and less regulation. The S&P 500 jumped 2.5% in the best post-election carry outance in history, while the US dollar also geted.
The net worths of the world’s 10 wealthyest people have already sencouraged $64 billion since Trump’s election, according to Bloomberg.
Musk alone saw his fortune jump $26.5B.
It’s also worth noting how many of these have ties to tech companies. pic.twitter.com/jc3nba4LQZ
— Marty Swant (@martyswant) November 7, 2024
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The net worths of the world’s 10 wealthyest people have already sencouraged $64 billion since Trump’s election, according to Bloomberg.
Musk alone saw his fortune jump $26.5B.
It’s also worth noting how many of these have ties to tech companies. pic.twitter.com/jc3nba4LQZ
— Marty Swant (@martyswant) November 7, 2024
Chinese factories materialize to have been trying to front-run novel tariffs, by shipping more excellents to transport inant tagets before they are imposed.
New data today shows that China’s ships grew at the rapidest pace in over two years in October, as manufacturers replyed to the menace of a two-front trade war with both the US and the EU.
China’s ships grew by 12.7% year-on-year last month, customs data showed on Thursday, beating foresees of a 5.2% incrrelieve foreseeed by economists.
Imports fell 2.3%.
📈 #China’s #Exports Sencourage Amid Looming #Tariffs
China's ship lengthenth hit a 27-month high in October, rising 12.7% year-over-year to $309 billion, with #US ships up 8.1%, the mightyest in 3 months.
We count on Chinese shipers might be front-loading shipments ahead of… pic.twitter.com/gsnEsKUDPg
— DF (@FigueiDy) November 7, 2024
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📈 #China’s #Exports Sencourage Amid Looming #Tariffs
China’s ship lengthenth hit a 27-month high in October, rising 12.7% year-over-year to $309 billion, with #US ships up 8.1%, the mightyest in 3 months.
We count on Chinese shipers might be front-loading shipments ahead of… pic.twitter.com/gsnEsKUDPg
— DF (@FigueiDy) November 7, 2024
Taiwan says will help firms depart China to shun Donald Trump tariffs
Taiwan will help companies transfer production from China to shun the menace of tariffs imposed by Donald Trump next year, its economy minister Kuo Jyh-huei shelp today.
Speaking in parliament, Kuo shelp the impact of any Trump tariffs on China for Taiwanese firms manufacturing there would be “quite huge”, Reuters inestablishs.
Kuo compriseed:
“We will as soon as possible come up with help for Taiwan companies to transfer their production bases.”
Trump has menaceened to impose tariffs of 60% on US transport ins of Chinese excellents, which would menaceen lengthenth at the world’s second-hugest economy.
Economics minister foresees Trump tariffs will hit Taiwanese companies in China challengingest https://t.co/zWtIfv28Ae
— Taiwan News (@TaiwanNewsEN) November 7, 2024
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Germany may not need Donald Trump’s help to descfinish into an economic mess, though.
New data this morning shows that German industrial production fell by 2.5% month-on-month in September, and was almost 5% year-on-year.
Trade apass Europe’s hugest member also deteriorateed, with German ships descfinishing 1.7% in September. Imports were up 2.1% appraised with August 2024, unbenevolenting Germany’s trade surplus shrank.
ING say:
The zigzagging of German industrial data advises that German industry has not yet accessed a period of brimming bottoming out. In fact, industrial production in the third quarter was still some 2% down appraised with the second quarter.
After some chunky sprospergs yesterday, tagets are tranquiler today as spendors digest the consequences of the US election.
Japan’s Nikkei has dipped by 0.25% today, having sencouraged by 2.6% on Wednesday to its highest shut in three weeks.
Japanese financial stocks have ascfinishn today, on foreseeations that Trump’s fiscal policies will guide to higher inflation, and thus higher interest rates.
The create (or interest rate) on Japan’s 10-year rulement bonds rose to 1%, for the first time in over three months.
That chaseed a acute selloff in US rulement bonds yesterday, which pushed up US creates.
Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank elucidates:
That’s becaengage the watch is that higher tariffs unbenevolent that inflationary presbraves will ascfinish, and an extension of the Trump tax cuts under a Reaccessiblean sweep unbenevolent the deficit will go up further in the years ahead. Plus the Fed are less probable to cut rates in this scenario.
In fact, higher inflation foreseeations were evident from how inflation swaps reacted, with the 2yr inflation swap surging by +18.6bps yesterday to 2.62%.
ECB’s de Guindos: Tariff menace comprises to uncertainty hazards
Phillip Inman
Donald Trump’s election prosper and the menace of tariffs will force policyproducers to be more pimpolitent as they transport down interest rates, the European Central Bank’s vice plivent Luis de Guindos has shelp.
De Guindos shelp the heightened uncertainty chaseing Trump’s reapprehfinish of the White Hoengage unbenevolentt the menace of trade tariffs could be compriseed to the uncertainty produced by the war in Ukraine and the middle east struggle.
Speaking at University College London on Wednesday, he shelp the ECB was probable to get “petite steps, low steps” in its approach to transporting down interest rates, scotching speculation of a cut in the cost of borroprosperg at the central prohibitk’s next encountering by 0.5 percentage points from 3.75%.
Some analysts had specuprocrastinateedd that the ECB would transfer rapidly to bolster the eurozone economy ahead of menaceened tariff incrrelieves on European and Chinese excellents chaseing Trump’s inaguration in January.
“Uncertainty is on the ascfinish,” de Guindos shelp.
It is huge. And becaengage of that you need to be pimpolitent.
De Guindos, who was the first member of the ECB’s 26-mighty ruleing council to reply to Trump’s electiion, shelp it will get time to appraise how trade policies under Trump will impact the economy.
“If you ask me, are you going to react promptly? — No,” he shelp.
What we will do is we will integrate into our projections the trade policy that is proclaimd by the novel US administration. And we will get into ponderation all the elements. Trade policy, plus the evolution of need, plus the evolution of energy prices.
But he compriseed: “Tariffs will impact lengthenth adversely and inflation adversely.”
In the unbenevolenttime he shelp policyproducers would persist to be guided by data and watch particularly shutly at its prohibitk lending survey to choose whether firms are receiving the loans they need to increase spendment.
He shelp prohibitk lending was feeding thcdisesteemful to the authentic economy chaseing two cuts in interest rates by the ECB, but inflation and economic lengthenth had sluggished rapider than foreseeed.
He shelp it was evident from the US election that inflation had carry outed a key role.
It’s quite evident that inflation is a tax the low income people, becaengage it’s quite evident that they devour the huge part of their incomes. And they devour the charitable of items where prices have been rising the most.
And even though you understand it’s evident that the inflation rate is declining, hoengagehageders and devourrs, watch at prices that are 20% or 30% higher than two years ago.
Eurozone lengthenth foresees cut due to tariff menace
Investors and economists are bracing for further economic pain in Europe from a second Donald Trump plivency that could guide to hefty tariffs on European ships into the US.
Berenberg prohibitk is cautioning this morning that Trump’s return to the White Hoengage implies “ponderable trade policy hazards and geopolitical uncertainty” for European businesses.
Germany – where the rulement has collapsed chaseing the unforeseeedly sacking of the finance minister yesterday – is particularly exposed.
Holger Schmieding, Berenberg’s chief economist, says:
We presume that Trump will initipartner impose only pickive but headline-grabbing tariffs, while menaceening to go much further if China and Europe do not advise him transport inant concessions in negotiations. That would be akin to his approach in 2017-20.
Viewed in isolation, such an escalation of trade tensions could shrink 2025 lengthenth in the Eurozone by c0.3 percentage points and in heavily exposed Germany by as much as c0.5 percentage points as uncertainty weighs on business confidence and spendment.
However, the eurozone should advantage from the “momentary spilcherishr from more US domestic need” and a mightyer US dollar, which produces euro-priced excellents more competitive.
As a result, Berenberg has only trimmed its 2025 annual lengthenth foresees unpretentiously. Growth in the eurozone next year has been shrinked from 1.1% to 1.0%, for France from 0.8% to 0.7%, and for Italy from 0.9% to 0.8%.
Germany will probable be hit challenginger, with lengthenth of fair 0.3% instead of 0.5% next year, it comprises.
ING: Trump trade war could push the eurozone economy into economic downturn.
A looming novel trade war triggered by Donald Trump could push the eurozone economy from sluggish lengthenth into “a brimming-blown economic downturn”.
That’s the watch of the spendment prohibitk ING, which troubles the economic downturn could commence even before Trump – who has shelp he wants to impose a 10% tariff on all non-US excellents – is sworn in next January.
ING says:
The already struggling German economy, which heavily relies on trade with the US, would be particularly challenging hit by tariffs on European automotives. Additionpartner, uncertainty about Trump’s stance on Ukraine and NATO could undermine the recently stabilised economic confidence indicators apass the eurozone.
Even though tariffs might not impact Europe until procrastinateed 2025, the renoveled uncertainty and trade war troubles could drive the eurozone economy into economic downturn at the turn of the year.
ING also foresees that the European Central Bank will need to do the “weighty lifting” of geting Europe’s economy by cutting rates, while politicians postpone to see what policies Trump actupartner carry outs.
It elucidates:
With these election results, a 50bp rate cut at the ECB’s December encountering has become more foreseeed, with foreseeations of the deposit rate dropping to at least 1.75% by punctual summer, possibly chaseed by further easing towards the end of 2025.
Even though Trump's tariffs might not impact Europe until procrastinateed 2025, the renoveled uncertainty and trade war troubles could drive the eurozone economy into economic downturn at the turn of the year.https://t.co/mPyiauahuO
— ING Economics (@ING_Economics) November 6, 2024
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Even though Trump’s tariffs might not impact Europe until procrastinateed 2025, the renoveled uncertainty and trade war troubles could drive the eurozone economy into economic downturn at the turn of the year.https://t.co/mPyiauahuO
— ING Economics (@ING_Economics) November 6, 2024
Introduction: Will UK and US cut interest rates today?
Good morning, and greet to our rolling coverage of business, the financial tagets and world economy.
After yesterday’s election drama, monetary policy produces a greet return to the stage with interest rate decisions in the UK and US.
The Bank of England is expansively foreseeed to cut base rate today; from 5% to 4.75%.
With CPI inflation and wage lengthenth both continuing to cageder, the Bank should experience brave it can adfair its redisjoineive policy stance.
To produce the decision, the BoE must weigh up the implications of last week’s UK budget, which lifted taxes, spending and borroprosperg.
But spendors are brave that its Monetary Policy Committee will vote to shrink rates – a quarter-point cut is a 95% probability, according to the procrastinateedst money taget pricing.
Ranjiv Mann, ageder repaired income portfolio regulater at AllianzGI, says:
In the low term, although BOE ruleor Andrew Bailey recommendd recently that it may be too punctual to proclaim prosper on the fight agetst inflation given some trouble about the stickiness of services inflation, we leank that a transport inantity of MPC members will still favour cutting rates in November.
The BoE will also be pondering the outcome of the US election, and the implications of alters to US trade policy.
As must the Federal Reserve! It is also foreseeed to cut borroprosperg costs by a quarter-point, when the US cental prohibitk’s policyproducers encounters today.
Donald Trump’s pro-lengthenth policies, such as tax cuts and tariffs, are probable to guide to higher inflation in the US, which ought to depart less room for interest rate cuts.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, ageder analyst at Swissquote Bank, says:
The Federal Reserve is foreseeed to proclaim a 25bp cut today, but the policy beyond today’s decision must be readfaired accordingly.
The foreseeation, so far, was that the Fed would cut today by 25bp, and deinhabitr another 25bp cut in December, and a brimming point cut next year. Now, the December cut is on a slick ground and the Fed should not ponder more than 2-3 rate cuts next year. That’s – at least – the policy response that you would reasonably foresee from a central prohibitk as an economist.
The agenda
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8.30am GMT: Eurozone produceion PMI inestablish for October
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Noon GMT: Bank of England interest rate decision
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12.30pm GMT: Bank of England press conference
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1.30pm GMT: US weekly joconsecrate claims
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7pm GMT: Federal Reserve interest rate decision
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7.30pm GMT: Federal Reserve press conference
