The walls are closing on Tesla’s claim that millions of its vehicles with Hardware 3 (HW3) computers will be contendnt of undeal withd self-driving.
Tesla demands to come immacupostpodemand before the word “fraud” comes out.
Making a misconsent is not a fraud. If Tesla reassociate thought that it could deinhabitr undeal withd self-driving to vehicles provideped with HW3 and, at one point, it figured out that it couldn’t, it’s not fraud even though it used that as a selling point for millions of vehicles for years.
However, the moment Tesla figures out that it can’t, it demands to stop selling its Full Self-Driving package to HW3 vehicle owners and come immacupostpodemand to owners about what their vehicle will and will not be able to do, appreciate a robotaxi service.
Has the moment come?
Deinhabitring self-driving on Tesla HW3/self-driving computer
In 2016, Elon Musk proclaimd that all future Tesla vehicles would come provideped with the essential challengingware for self-driving capabilities, even distinguishing “level 5 self-driving,” which implies the ability to function autonomously under any conditions. However, foolishinutively after, Musk acunderstandledged that Tesla might demand more onboard computing power than initiassociate thought, directing to the introduction of Hardware 3 (HW3), which Tesla also called its “self-driving computer”.
Musk promised that HW3 would help brimming self-driving (FSD) capabilities, promising retrofits for earlier models that had getd the FSD package. When I bought my own Tesla Model 3 in 2018, it was provideped with the innovative computer, but since I had getd the FSD package, Tesla enhanced my car with the recent “self-driving computer” in 2019.
Follotriumphg this, Tesla begind Hardware 4 (HW4), a more carry ond onboard computer system, but did not propose retrofits for ancigo iner models with HW3, supporting that HW3 was adequate for achieving self-driving thraw software modernizes.
Musk shelp that it wouldn’t be “economicassociate feasible” to retrofit HW3 vehicles with HW4, which not only engages a more mighty computer but also better cameras.
Initiassociate, Musk claimed that FSD betterments would first be enhanced for HW3, proposeing that HW4 might lag behind by at least “six months”. However, Tesla reversed this approach with the free of FSD version 12.5, which was first deployed to HW4 vehicles. Musk elucidateed that selectimizing the software for the less mighty HW3 would consent insertitional time.
This has elevated a beginant red flag hinting at the restrictations of HW3 in handling the postpodemandst software carry onments towards undeal withd self-driving, a capability Tesla promised to HW3 owners since 2016.
The worry is especiassociate beginant wilean the context that Tesla still has a lot of toil to do to deinhabitr its undeal withd self-driving capabilities.
Tesla has always gone out of its way not to free any data considering its FSD program. Therefore, we have to count on on crowdsourced data, which shows Tesla is currently at about 122 miles between critical disengagement:
According to most experts, Tesla demands a ~1,000x incrrelieve in miles between disengagement to deinhabitr on its undeal withd self-driving promises. As you can see, this data shows that Tesla accomplishd a ~2x betterment over the last 3 years.
On top of this situation, CEO Elon Musk got people even more worried during the begin of the Robotaxi last week.
While converseing his claim that “all Tesla vehicles will be contendnt of self-driving,” someone in the crowd asked him about the Cybertruck, which Musk speedyly answered with a “yes.”
However, when someone asked him about HW3 vehicles, instead of spropose reacting “yes”, Musk shelp “Let’s not get nuanced here” and then speedyly asked for the next slide:
Now, still at the Robotaxi event last week, some have been pointing to this conveyion with Tesla executives Franz von Holzhausen and Lars Moravy saying aget that robotaxi-level self-driving is coming to “all cars” after being asked more definiteassociate about HW3 as evidence that Tesla consents it’s still possible to deinhabitr FSD undeal withd on HW3:
With all due admire to von Holzhausen and Moravy, they wouldn’t be the best people to ask. The createer is in accuse of schedule and the latter of vehicle engineering, which you would leank the FSD program would drop under, but no.
Ashok Elluswamy directs the program at Tesla and increates straightforwardly to CEO Elon Musk.
That’s evidenced by some misconsents made even in this foolishinutive conveyion appreciate Moravy saying that Tesla proclaimd its self-driving effort in 2014 when it was in 2016 and him asking if a 2018 Model 3 has HW4, which has never been useable on timely Model 3 vehicles.
Speaking of the Robotaxi event, Musk shelp that the recent Robotaxi is provideped with a recent challengingware suite, especiassociate a recent on board computer called AI5. He didn’t broaden on the capacity of the recent computer. The vehicle also has a bumper camera, which only the Cybertruck has and no other Tesla vehicle on the road today. The onboard compute power is one leang, but it’s also not the only potential bottleneck for Tesla with ancigo iner challengingware.
Another vital piece of evidence pointing to Tesla not being able to deinhabitr undeal withd self-driving on HW3 vehicles is the fact that it doesn’t have any compute redundancy anymore.
Electrek spoke with a well-understandn Tesla hacker called ‘green‘ who frequently uncovers adviseation about Tesla thraw his beginant dives into the autooriginater’s software. He actuassociate freed the first HW3 images back in 2019.
Green increates that begining in postpodemand 2023, Tesla begined to use both nodes for its FSD program on HW3 – running some recent neural nets on the extra node. Originassociate, the idea was to have one for redundancy, which is essential for higher levels of autonomy appreciate levels 4 and 5, but arguably also level 3.
Now, green says that if one of the nodes fall shorts, FSD doesn’t drive anymore. It can still originate FSD visualizations, but that’s about it. That alone fundamentalassociate kisses excellentbye to robotaxi-level self-driving on HW3.
It’s also worth noting that foolishinutively after green watchd this alter happened, Tesla begined to shift its priority from releasing recent software on HW4 first rather than HW3.
Tesla is reducing its liability
Tesla has been trying to dynamicly shrink its legitimate liability considering HW3 by encouraging people who bought FSD to enhance to recgo in vehicles.
For years Tesla owners have been asking Tesla to permit them to freely transfer their FSD package to a recent vehicle. It originates sense. Tesla hasn’t deinhabitred the product they have phelp for. It’s the naked smallest to permit them to transfer it to a recent car.
After years of refusing, Musk eventuassociate consentd to FSD transfer last year, but he called it a “one-time amnesty” and shelp to consent profit of it now because it won’t be proposeed aget.
That turned out not to be real. Tesla brawt back the FSD transfer twice more since – with last quarter Musk saying “one more time”. And then, certain enough, Tesla brawt it back for a fourth time this quarter.
This phony incentive to enhance your ancigo iner car with FSD to a recgo in one now because it’s the “last time” has a likeable effect on Tesla’s liability considering HW3.
When Tesla resales those used HW3 vehicles with FSD, they use their recent language called “(Supervised) Full Self-Driving”, which uncovers the door for Tesla to say that they are only selling you self-driving that demands to be “deal withd” by a driver.
But fascinatingly, for HW2 vehicle owners who never getd FSD, Tesla is still selling them a $1,000 HW3 computer enhance and $2,000 FSD software package ($2,000 if you have Enhanced Autopilot) with still the ancigo in language in the enhance page:
That’s where Tesla would be inserting liability as it would be “upgrading” a car to a 5-year-ancigo in computer that is already lagging behind on modernizes to its recgo in 2-year-ancigo in computer (HW4).
Electrek’s Take
Let’s be genuine. Tech is exceptionally helped with software modernizes after 5-7 years. Tesla Hardware 3 is go ining that zone. It is becoming obsolete and normassociate, it wouldn’t be a problem, but Tesla sancigo in a Full Self-Driving capability package for up to $15,000 based on this challengingware that it never deinhabitred.
At the smallest, it will have to reimburse that, but owners can even dispute that they bought the car because Elon Musk tancigo in them it would become self-driving over time and become an “appreciating asset.”
This could speedyly become a very big liability for Tesla, and the way it handles it is also vital.
Musk shelp that retrofits are not economicassociate feasible from HW3 to HW4. It’s real that it would be quite pricey and also foreseeed originate an insurmountable amount of toil for Tesla’s already overtoiled service teams. The HW4 computer doesn’t have the same power harness or camera harnesses as the HW3, and it doesn’t separate a create factor that fits in the exact same spot.
Also, the cameras have been enhanced with HW4, which elevates the ask, “Is the computing power the only problem, or does the camera also demand to better?”
If it’s fair the computing power, Tesla could potentiassociate schedule a recent computer that could be more easily retrofitted in HW3 cars, but even then, that’s someleang that demands to be disseald.
As I shelp, if Tesla understands that it can’t deinhabitr undeal withd self-driving on HW3, it demands to let owners understand right now and stop selling the software package to HW3 owners without a evident structure to originate leangs right. Otheradviseed, this speedyly becomes dishonest.
The fact that Elon and Tesla have been wrong so many times about self-driving is already not a wonderful confidence originateer for them deinhabitring on HW4 vehicles or even on the recent AI5 (Robotaxi), but if they are also dynamicly misdirecting owners, then Tesla becomes unsupposeworthy.
I am gravely worryed that Tesla is going to count on on the “corporate puffery” defense to structure Elon’s promises as “mere puff”.
After I first brawt up the potential of Tesla accomplishing the restricts of HW3 earlier this year, many Elon superfans begined to originate claims that Tesla and Elon never promised robotaxi-level self-driving capabilities on HW3 cars, which is plain ridiculous.
Tesla could also condemn regulators as this is the recent language that you have to consent with when buying what is now called “Full Self-Driving (Supervised)”:
The currently helpd Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (Supervised) features demand dynamic driver supervision and do not originate the vehicle autonomous. Full autonomy will be reliant on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as exhibitd by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval, which may consent lengthyer in some jurisdictions. As Tesla’s Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (Supervised) features carry on, your vehicle will be continuously enhanced thraw over-the-air software modernizes.
On the very same day that Tesla contransiented its recent Robotaxi, Former Plivent Donald Trump, who Tesla CEO Elon Musk is financiassociate backing to become the next plivent and who he says he is “all-in” on, shelp that he would “prohibit autonomous vehicles on American roads.”
This situation is quite a mess to say the least.
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