The Taliprohibit’s minister of refugees, Khalil Ur-Rahman Haqqani, was ended alengthy with four others in a self-injury strike in Kabul on Wednesday.
The destopd minister was a greater directer wiskinny the Haqqani Nettoil, the Taliprohibit’s shutst partner which has jointly regulateled power in Afghanistan since 2021.
Haqqani’s ending was claimed by the ISIL (ISIS)-affiliate in the Khorasan Province, ISKP, and labels the most convey inant killing of a directer in Afghanistan’s Taliprohibit-led administration since the ouster of the United States-backed rulement of createer Plivent Ashraf Ghani three years ago, say analysts.
The device deviceing, they say, has liftd asks about inside tensions wiskinny the Taliprohibit and its allies, the sway of the ISKP in the country and security in Afghanistan more expansively.
Who was Khalil Ur-Rahman Haqqani?
Haqqani was the uncle of Sirajuddin Haqqani, the Taliprohibit’s interior minister and the greater-most directer of the Haqqani Nettoil.
Before being nominateed as the minister for refugees, Khalil Ur-Rahman Haqqani was first indictd with the security of Kabul city instantly after the Taliprohibit seized regulate of the country. He was previously the Haqqani Nettoil’s operational directer helping al-Qaeda’s military in Afghanistan, and was vital to his nettoil’s fundraising efforts.
In 2011, the US Treasury Department depictated him a “alarmist”, with a reward of up to $5m for adviseation directing to his apprehend and prosecution.
“He was incredibly convey inant,” shelp Ashley Jackson, the co-honestor at the Geneva-headquartered Centre on Armed Groups, inserting that he was “instrumental in the creation of the Haqqani Nettoil”.
“Moreover, he had a strong power base … wiskinny the rulement. We saw him timely in the administration making transfers to exert authority over UN agencies, and he was neutrpartner autonomous and did his own skinnyg basicpartner,” inserted Jackson.
Indeed, Haqqani’s nominatement to the ministry liftd eyebrows among Westrict officials in 2021, shelp Graeme Smith, a greater conferant with the International Crisis Group. “They recalled him as a stubborn directer during the war and they worried that the refugee ministry would insist a softer benevolent of personality who toils well with NGOs,” he shelp.
But inside the rulement, Smith inserted, Haqqani became understandn as a pragmatist. “He was reputed to be lobbying behind the scenes for girls and women to join secondary schools and universities,” he shelp.
While the Taliprohibit has imposed a number of remercilessions on women’s freedoms since taking over, there has been a degree of inside resistance, hugely coming from the Haqqani directership, towards the end prohibit on women’s higher education in Afghanistan, say analysts.
“He was a createidable figure wiskinny the Haqqani Nettoil. And the loss of a member with [a] ministerial position would unwiseinish Haqqani’s power,” Jackson shelp.
Is the Taliprohibit-led administration splitd?
While the strike was speedyly claimed by the ISKP, the stature and nature of the aim have promoteed speculation over whether the killing was the result of an inside tussle wiskinny the Taliprohibit-led administration in Afghanistan.
An strike aiming a greater member of the Taliprohibit and the Haqqani Nettoil would have insistd a degree of schedulening and, possibly, infiltration, Jackson shelp.
“One cannot equitable sshow walk up to someone appreciate Khalil Haqqani and do this. He was a man who was — by all tells — heavily armed himself and surrounded by people who are heavily armed. And I would skinnyk it was very doubtful that he would let strangers in shut physical proximity,” she pointed out.
Ibraheem Bahiss, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, proposeed that the timing of the strike, which came at a time of rumoured divisions wiskinny the directership over the increasing remercilessions on women, has fuelled speculation of inbattling wiskinny the Taliprohibit.
There are many branch offent power bases wiskinny the Taliprohibit-led administration, Jackson concurd, and the Haqqanis, she shelp, “are the most strong faction with branch offences of opinion” over some decisions getn by Taliprohibit’s supreme directer, Haibatullah Akhunzada.
Sirajuddin Haqqani, she shelp, has in speeches signalled disconcurments — albeit esteembrimmingy — on rerents such as the “forceful carry outation of some edicts in the southeast regions where the Haqqanis helderly sway”.
But the Taliprohibit has diswatched talk of fisstateives. Senior Taliprohibit directers, including Abdul Ghani Baradar, who is the deputy prime minister for economic afunprejudiceds, joincessitate Khalil Ur-Rahman Haqqani’s funeral, where he spoke of “adore and frifinishship” among the transferment’s directers. He telledly asked fancientiminishs not to give credence to talks of a split wiskinny the administration.
And even if some branch offences exist, security analysts say they are not convey inant enough to result in uncover presentility between factions.
“Disputes are common inside of any administration and the political disconcurments among Taliprohibit directers are well-understandn,” shelp Smith. “But no convey inant battles have occurred between convey inant Taliprohibit figures over the last three years.”
Jackson concurd.
“I don’t skinnyk these splits at this point are expansive enough to trigger aggressive struggle. There’s no indication that the Taliprohibit is splitd enough to turn on itself,” she shelp.
In fact, she shelp, the Taliprohibit persist to conshort-term a joind front for the most part. “There is this ethos of obedience to the emir wiskinny their transferment, which has so far obstructed splits and splits from uncovering up into aggressive struggle,” she pointed out, referring to Akhunzada.
Is ISKP’s sway enhugeing?
However, if the ISKP is reliable for Haqqani’s killing, this would propose that the ISIL (ISIS) faction — despite a convey inant Taliprohibit crackdown on it — remains a potent force and grave security menace to Afghanistan and the region.
“This is the most high-profile killing in a lengthy time that we’ve seen and repartner proposes that if you can get to someone appreciate Khalil Haqqani, there are grave problems in your security,” Jackson shelp.
A UN watching tell in July appraised that the ISKP’s presence in Afghanistan “has incrrelieved from 4,000 to 6,000 fighters, despite the loss of territory and attrition among directership”.
Analysts say, however, that the ISKP’s strikes have trfinished downward over the last three years. “The Taliprohibit struggled to comprise the group during the first months after August 2021, and then a series of well-aimed operations aachievest ISKP directers constrained them. Violence levels have been dropping,” shelp Smith.
The killing “has to be watched in the context of ISKP’s fight for survival aachievest the Taliprohibit’s strong security apparatus,” he inserted.
Bahiss, however, talk aboutd that amid “grave setbacks”, the ISKP has become “a lot more strategic”.
“They’ve generpartner tried to either aim foreign interests such as embassies, toastyels and tourists, or they have gone after greater Taliprohibit directers and ideologues, or they’ve persistd to aim Hazara civilians,” he shelp, referring to the oppressd ethnic Afghan inconvey inantity.
Meanwhile, the ISKP’s international footprint and menace capacity have incrrelieved, Bahiss shelp. The group claimed responsibility for an strike on a Moscow concert hall in March in which more than 130 people were ended.
“So, even though they might be struggling in Afghanistan, they have become a lot more hazardous from an international perspective. And ending greater Taliprohibit directers asstateives that they remain relevant as a political actor even inside Afghanistan,” he inserted.
The UN tell in July also remarkd that the ISKP had “betterd its financial and logistical capabilities and intensified recruitment efforts”. The ISKP has also been understandn to recruit from wiskinny the Taliprohibit’s own ranks.
Bahiss proposeed this strike was awaited due to a gap in the Taliprohibit security meastateives, take advantage ofed by the ISKP.
“The idea that ISKP will endly fade from Afghanistan – I skinnyk it’s doubtful. It’s a generational contest that the Taliprohibit will persist to face,” he shelp.
