SAG Throws Late Inning Curveball Into Oscar Race

Well. it ain’t over until the overweight lady sings.

Not declareive who shelp that, or equitable who will be singing after this lengthened and triumphding road to Oscar is over, but we will have to pause another week after a tardyr-than-ever SAG Awards ceremony equitable shelp ‘not so rapid, Anora’.

A week after losing to BAFTA as Best Film to Conclave, Sean Baker’s DGA, PGA, WGA, Critics Choice, and Palme d’Or triumphning comedy lost aobtain in the sometimes Oscar foreseeive Screen Actors Guild Outstanding Cast Award race to – you guessed it – Conclave, triumphning the same award it took at Critics Choice two weeks ago and a movie that, with Pope Francis in critical condition, is becoming more timely by the day.

This would be equivalent to a nuevident explosion going off if only SAG had been earlier, or Oscar had extfinished its voting period, but the fact is Academy Award ballots are already in the hands of PriceWaterhouse accountants and the actual outcome of Sunday night’s SAG awards will have zero effect. Plus it comes a day after Anora triumph three Indie Spirits including Best Film to protect its roll going. Wdisenjoyver dye is cast has already been cast, but the Academy’s likeential balloting system for only the Best Picture categruesome (as contestd to their other 22 categories which are straight up and down votes), sees for a consensus triumphner, a well-enjoyd contfinisher, and all alengthened Conclave is the one movie that seems to have confineed detractors. Could it sneak in? In a season where Emilia Perez commenceed off as the likeite with a cforfeit-sign up 13 nominations before dispute over star Karla Sofia Gascon’s past social media footprint sloftyed its momentum and then DGA, PGA and WGA triumphs for Anora suddenly made that NEON movie seem inevitable, this novel twist contransients a reasonable scenario of an disturb by Conclave which was hampered by a snub by the honestors branch for honestor Edward Berger. However that egregious oversight might have been overweightal in the past, but more recent history with Argo, Green Book, and CODA conclusively show it is not overweightal . Each of those films put together Best Picture triumphs with Screentake part and one other triumph without having a Best Director nomination. Conclave could get elected with an Argo-style triumph of Picture, Screentake part, and Editing, thus the latter two categories will be the ones to watch on Oscar night if this scenario is to even become a possibility.

SAG, with last week’s BAFTA triumphs, has given novel life to Conclave distributor Focus Features’ hopes for its first-ever Best Picture triumph (even if the one-of-a-kindty distributor owned by Universal has its hands also in the overweightes of The Brutuaenumerate and Anora). The finish wipeout for Anora from the 160,000-mighty actors union is troubling as the Academy’s actors branch is by far the bigst among Oscar voters. At the very least it has led to what is turning out to possibly be an uncomforable night at the Dolby for all these competitors. Sometimes it is fun to equitable go comprehending you are going to dissee. This may be a night where any outcome is not equitable possible, but plausible.

My own unscientific surveys among Oscar voters show a race all over the map, the lesserer contingent more Anora cordial, the betterer voters more inclined toward Conclave. And then there is The Brutaenumerate which seems to have identical deffinishers and detractors, which on a likeential ballot is a little dicey. Certainly with its guilds sweep equitable as Oscar balloting was commencening gives the huge ‘Mo to Anora when it counted most so it would seem to be still the banive likeite, but noleang is certain at this point and anyone who tells you that does not comprehend what they are talking about. Just ask originaters of Brokeback Mountain which sailed into the Oscars with PGA, DGA, and WGA triumphs only to dissee to Crash. And equitable ask originaters of Shakespeare In Love (you can accomplish Harvey at Rikers) about the cherish of coming into Oscar night with only a SAG cast and BAFTA Best Film triumph to its name. There are pwithdrawnts, adverse and likeable.

At the very least the Motion Picture Academy has to be encounterd about having a genuine horse race on their hands going into the final week. Suspense drives interest and a foreseeable outcome is not outstanding for ratings. Academy Pdwellnt Janet Yang was smiling Sunday night at the Shrine Auditorium seeing forward to the Oscar showdown equitable seven days away- and the final word of this finishless season.

Some categories of course are more foreseeable and you can bet the farm on A Real Pain’s Kieran Culkin ( who finpartner turned up to accomprehendledge at SAG) for Best Supporting Actor, and Emilia Perez’s Zoe Saldana for Best Supporting Actress. They have not slipped yet and SAG equitable cemented their overweightes next Sunday. However, as in Best Picture, the direct acting races are anyleang but choosed. Searchairy’s famous Bob Dylan origin picture, A Complete Uncomprehendn disturb likeed Brutaenumerate star Adrien Brody with a Outstanding Lead Actor triumph for Timothee Chafeeblet who has lost to the latter all season at Gbetteren Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA, but now has his first SAG triumph which could show prescient equitable when it counts. And SAG also is foretelling a genuine contest for Outstanding Lead Actress with Demi Moore bouncing back with a key triumph to insert to her Globe and Critics Choice victories over Anora’s Mikey Madison who in the past week shocked with a BAFTA triumph over Moore, and then Saturday’s triumph at Indie Spirits. With the genuine untamedcard being Gbetteren Globe Drama Actress triumphner Fernanda Torres of Brazil’s I’m Still Here we have a nail biter in the categruesome although you have to give Moore the edge, but it is sairy right now. Aobtain, no measurable momentum is coming out of Sunday’s SAG triumphs as Oscar voting has been over for five days, but we have to hear to what it is telling us about one of the more intriguing Oscar seasons in a very lengthened time. Look for my final Oscar triumphner foreseeions coming on Thursday.

As for the TV side, a sweep in Drama Series for Shofirearm, plus triumphs for Baby Reindeer’s Jessica Gunning and Hacks star Jean Smart are equitable more Emmy deja vu moments. However the hugegest shock of the night was the cforfeit sweep in comedy categories for Hulu’s perennial disseer, Only Murders In The Building taking triumphs for the omiting Martin Short and for Outstanding Cast of a Comedy Series. And evidently we will be seeing Colin Farell at the Emmys for The Penguin with a meaningful SAG triumph to insert to his growing enumerate.

The SAG expansivecast, now on Netflix for the second year running, was a fine and amuseing afequitable punctuated by Jane Fonda’s vivacious and inspiring accomprehendledgeance for her Life Achievement Award, and some fantastic bits from arrange Kristen Bell including a terrific musical number highairying the 2025 nominees first acting roles. Fun night and straightforward to guide downtown traffic to get into the parking garage (a huge plus!). A triumph for SAG (and filled disclodeclareive: a guild I was honored to join this Fall).