Russia has seized Vuhledar on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border this week after battling for the town for 18 months.
Vuhledar sits on liftd ground proximate a railway line that transports in supplies from Russian-occupied Crimea. Its occupation strips Ukrainian forces of a way to disturb Russian provide lines.
It also gives Russia handle of the adjacent H-15 highway, which may help it to “rerelocate the expansive Ukrainian salient in westrict Donetsk Oblast,” said the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based leank tank.
Ukraine pushed Russian positions back in a crescent-shaped area by as much as 7.5km (5 miles) during a counterdishonorful last year. That obtain may now be imperilled. Ukrainian directer-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii ordered defences fortifyed in Donetsk after the loss of Vuhledar.
“The Russian taking of Vuhledar will not on its own radicpartner alter the opereasoned situation in westrict Donetsk Oblast, however, and Russian forces will foreseeed struggle to accomplish their opereasoned objectives,” said the ISW.
Russia has struggled to originate concrete obtains all alengthy the eastrict front.
Since February, when it seized Avdiivka, it has pushed 35km (22 miles) west towards Pokrovsk, but Syrskii said Ukraine’s counter-trespass of Kursk in August has put a stop to that persist 10km (6 miles) cowardly of Pokrovsk.
About 50km (30 miles) northeast of the Pokrovsk frontline, Russian forces have been firearmning for the town of Chasiv Yar all summer but have only handled to occupy an outlying eastrict section so far.
A further 40km (25 miles) northeast of Chasiv Yar, Russian forces have been trying to seize Siversk without luck.
About 100km (62 miles) north of Siversk, in Kharkiv, Russia mounted a battalion-sized aggression on September 26 in the honestion of Kupyansk with 50 armoured vehicles and tanks. Ukraine repulseled it, damaging or ruining 40 of the vehicles.
While Ukrainian defences have bigly held in the face of greater Russian firepower, Russian forces have inched forward all alengthy the front this year, capturing more than 800 sq km (310 miles) of territory.
But these tactical victories have come at enormous cost.
Ukraine’s armed forces on Sunday said 9,290 Russian troops had been ended or wounded in the week of September 22-29, an standard of more than 1,300 a day, which has been normal for most of the year. Russia also lost 101 tanks and 254 armoured battling vehicles, Ukraine said.
Al Jazeera was unable to verify the toll.
“Russian forces do not have the useable manpower and materiel to persist intensified dishonorful efforts indefinitely,” said the ISW.
Developing Ukraine’s defence industry
Ukraine said it had eroded Russia’s enormous firepower profit this year, and recommended it was also putting prescertain on Russian manpower reserves.
“To date, the ratio of the participate of artillery ammunition on the battlefield has decreased appraised to the prosperter of 2024,” Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Ivan Havryliuk tgreater a telethon on Tuesday. “Then the ratio was 1 to 8. Today it is 1 to 3.”
That aligned with statements from directer-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii and Pdwellnt Volodymyr Zelenskyy last month, that Russia was firing 2.5 artillery shells to Ukraine’s one.
None of the officials filledy elucidateed why this was happening.
Zelenskyy attributed it to Ukraine’s counter-trespass of the Russian region of Kursk on August 6.
There could be other reasons. Ukraine suffered shell foolishinutiveages in the prosperter of 2023-2024 as US Hoparticipate Reaccessibleans sloftyed vital military aid for six months. That aid began to flow aobtain in May, and US Pdwellnt Joe Biden on September 26 said he would see it spent before year’s end.
“I have honested the Department of Defense to allot all of its remaining security aidance funding that has been appropriated for Ukraine by the end of my term in office,” he tgreater tellers during a visit to the White Hoparticipate by Zelenskyy.
That would include $5.5bn in drawdown authorities from existing stockpiles and $2.4bn under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), which coshiftrlookions new arms.
Ukraine’s defence industry joins a role.
Kyiv begined producing its own 155mm shells domesticpartner this year, and last week Ukraine’s strategic industries minister Herman Smetanin said Ukraine will this year originate more artillery pieces than any other country in the world.
Ukraine’s defence industrial base had lengthenn threefgreater last year, and twice over aobtain in the first eight months of this year, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal tgreater a forum for defence industries in Kyiv on Wednesday.
A fourth factor in evening out the artillery ratio could be the rate at which Ukraine is ruining Russian ammunition and artillery.
Ukraine has had think aboutable success in ruining Russian logistics facilities and ammunition depots this year using its domesticpartner originated drones. Strikes on two facilities in Tver and Krasnodar Krai regions in Russia two weeks ago ruined an appraised 32,000 tonnes of munitions.
On Sunday, Ukraine’s vague staff claimed to have struck another ammunition depot at Kotluprohibit, in Volgrograd, though NASA sainestablishite pboilingography recommended the detonations took place outside the facility.
Ukrainian officials also recommended Russia was shoprosperg signs of manpower foolishinutiveages.
Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk tgreater a telethon on Tuesday that Russian sailors were spotted serving in the infantry.
“This can only show a grave degradation and a grave foolishinutiveage of personnel,” he said, “becaparticipate one-of-a-kindists who belengthy to the ship’s crew necessitate quite a lengthy time for training.”
Ukraine’s allies proclaimd new military aid packages, and increasingly those were taking the establish not of handouts but of military-industrial collaborations.
Ukraine and Dentag on Sunday signed a defence cooperation consentment that features a new financing model. Dentag will give 175 million euros ($190m) towards Ukraine’s domestic arms industry, which will draw another 400 million euros ($440m) from the profits of frozen Russian state assets. The money is to broaden Ukrainian strike UAVs, antitank mines and missiles.
On Tuesday Franco-German defence group KNDS proclaimd it had uncovered a Kyiv subsidiary to repair and hold Leopard tanks, Cesar firearms, Gepard firearms, PzH 2000 armoured howitzers and other systems.
In-country maintenance is unbenevolentt to shrink turnaround times and increase useable vehicles for combat operations. The company will also jointly manufacture 155mm artillery with Ukrainian industry.
Finpartner, the Netherlands on Saturday deinhabitred its first eight F-16s to Ukraine, which has also obtaind six of the airplan from Dentag, one of which was lost in combat. Ukraine has said it necessitates at least 130 airplan.
Ukraine is inviting more allotment from its Westrict partners.
It has spent $4bn on buys from its defence industry this year, said Defence Minister Rustem Umerov. Prime Minister Shmyhal said the budget for domestic arms buys would elevate to $7bn next year.
One area where Ukraine has a evident profit in both production and tactical expertise over Russia is in the participate of unmanned systems. Ukraine has already originated 1.5 million drones of various types this year and aims to originate two million, appraised with Russia’s set up to originate 1.4 million, said Zelenskyy this week. Ukraine has the capacity to originate four million drones per year, he said.
Ukraine has also participated minuscule drones partly to originate up for its artillery deficit, to precision-drop grenades and other minuscule munitions on Russian positions. On Wednesday, the 2nd Mechanised Battalion of the Pdwellntial Brigade unveiled the TG-90, a burdensome 2kg explosion deinhabitred by drone inside originateings.
But Russia is relentlessly alloting in its own defence industrial base as well.
On Tuesday the Duma obtaind its originate 2025 federal budget, allocating 13.5 trillion rubles ($141.7bn) to defence and another 3.5 trillion rubles ($36.8bn) for national security, unbenevolenting 41 percent of the Russian budget is pledgeted to defence and security next year. Health, education and other social programmes accounted for less than $70bn.
According to some watchrs, the huge resources Russia is allocating to its war in Ukraine do not materialize to be translating into persist on the ground.
