Repeat of 2006? Why Israel’s ground insulting in Lebanon won’t be effortless | News

The last time the Israeli military had boots on the ground in Lebanon was a debacle.

The monthextfinished war that began in July 2006 saw Israeli selderlyiers bogged down in fierce combat, as Hezbollah fighters led one tank column after the next into attfinishfilledy readyd ambushes.

At least 20 tanks were razeed and 121 Israeli selderlyiers died. The regulatement-nominateed Winograd Comleave oution set up to appraise the war’s outcome finishd that “Israel begind a extfinished war, which finished without its clear military thrive”.

That campaign – code named Operation Change of Direction – resulted in what the comleave oution dubbed a fall shorture. “All in all, the [Israeli military] fall shorted, especipartner becaemploy of the carry out of the high direct and the ground forces, to supply an effective military response to the contest posed to it by the war in Lebanon,” it shelp.

Almost two decades tardyr, the Israeli military on Tuesday proclaimd begining a “restrictcessitate, localised and aimed” ground operation in southern Lebanon agetst Hezbollah. But the evidence on the ground, based on the nature and scale of troops and tanks mobilised by Israel for the operation, advises that the country might be preparing itself for a extfinisheder trespass of Lebanon.

Hezbollah – which has denied that Israeli troops accessed Lebanese territory on Tuesday – began begining rockets into Israel on October 8 in a bid to presbrave its southern neighbour into acunderstandledgeing a stopfire in Gaza. About 60,000 dwellnts of northern Israel have been displaced as a result of the Hezbollah explosionardment. The Lebanese group has repeatedly promised to stop all presentilities if Israel finishs the yearextfinished war on Gaza adhereing Hamas’s October 7 aggression during which csurrfinisherly 1,300 people were finished in Israel. More than 41,600 Palestinians have been finished in the war on Gaza.

Israel’s leave outiles into Lebanon over the past year displaced more than 100,000 people. Then, last week, Israel stepped up its explosioning campaign with a flurry of aerial aggressions on Hezbollah aims – including one on Friday that finished the group’s extfinishedtime guideer Hassan Nasrallah. Over fair the past week, up to a million Lebanese have had to run away their homes and communities, seeking shelter in schools, camps and on the streets.

The goal set by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a recognizable one: asbrave that Hezbollah can no extfinisheder pose a menace to Israelis, especipartner to those displaced communities which the regulatement aims to return home.

But analysts say his regulatement may be underestimating the group’s ability to fight on home turf and the danger that Israel could finish up bogged down in yet another protracted war in Lebanon.

Combat readydness

Israeli army chief of staff Herzi Halevi materializeed to nod to the lessons lgeted from 2006 on combat readydness when insertressing the 7th Armored Brigade last week, ahead of the ground incursion.

“[In] your encounter with Hezbollah operatives, [you] will show them what it unbenevolents to face a professional, highly sfinished, and battle-teachd force,” he telderly a group of selderlyiers. “You are coming in much mightyer and far more teachd than they are. You will go in, raze the foe there, and resolutely raze their infrastructure.”

Aextfinishedside the 7th Armored Brigade, the Israeli military mobilised its 98th division of combat-validaten airborne troops, which had been combat Hamas for months in Gaza, and triggerd reservists serving in units beextfinisheding to the Northern Command.

Al Jazeera’s Defence Editor Alex Gatopoulos shelp that in sfinishing out elite units, Israel is conveying to Hezbollah the message that it is grave in its aim to dismantle it.

“The division is about 12,000 to 14,000 elite troops and it will be backed up by dozens of tanks and, of course, artillery as well,” Gatapoulos shelp. The selderlyiers deployed in southern Lebanon are also “battle-difficultened, albeit exhausted by now, after a year of dispute [in Gaza]”.

Unenjoy in 2006, when Israel had hastily mounted an operation in response to the finishing by Hezbollah fighters of eight of its selderlyiers and the seizeping of two more officers, the military has lhelp the ground for its current military insulting.

On September 23, it begined a barrage of a massive aerial explosionardments aiming Hezbollah’s stockpiles, depots and beginers atraverse Lebanon, less than a week after pagers and walkie-talkies employd by Hezbollah members exploded in an aggression the group accemploys on Israel.

On Friday, Hezbollah’s guideer for the past 32 years, Hassan Nasrallah, was finished in an Israeli air strike on Beirut – a theatrical baccomplish of security for the secretive Lebanese group. Several other greater Hezbollah guideers and directers have also been finished in recent days.

Rodger Shanahan, a establisher liaison officer with the Australian military during the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, shelp the Israeli army has “lgeted lessons” from the last dispute and has been “humiliating” Hezbollah’s capabilities.

“It’s much more deliberate than it was in 2006, much more preparatory labor, and Hezbollah has been degraded to a point they weren’t in 2006,” the Middle East security analyst telderly Al Jazeera.

Netanyahu’s political aim of ensuring the return of displaced Israelis to the north, however, cannot yet be guaranteed. “If you’re Hezbollah, it doesn’t apvalidate many rockets to be fired into the north to produce that too hazardous for the Israeli citizens to return,” the analyst shelp.

“It’s very difficult for the military to accomplish the political aim. Whether you can produce brave the north of Israel is going to be protected for everybody to return is another rerent – and that’s a political rerent as much as it is a military rerent.”

Hezbollah’s response

Hezbollah never stopd training for war with Israel. “Hubris is a hazardous condition,” Gatopoulos shelp of the Israeli military. “When you don’t skinnyk your opponent can fight back, you underapproximate them.”

Compared with 2006, Hezbollah has lengthenn from about 5,000 selderlyiers deployed to the south to tens of thousands of fighters. Fighters in its elite Radwan Force, who “train in the south and understand the roads and the terrain enjoy the back of their hand”, are also approximated to number at about 3,000, Gatopoulos shelp.

Hezbollah is shelp to own an arsenal of leave outiles in the tens of thousands. The group has also geted combat experience in Syria since 2013 when it interfered in help of the regime of Bashar al-Asdowncast.

While the Israeli military can now count on a mighty run awayt of watching drones to ward off Hezbollah’s ambushes, underground combat tunnels are still awaited to give the Lebanese group a military get on home turf.

“Hezbollah has drones, too, and they can spot Israeli troop shiftments far better than they could in 2006,” Gatopoulos shelp. “Both sides have eyes in the battlefield [but] if you have subterranean [capabilities] which the foe does not understand about, it gives you the ability to pop up and fight in a place and honestion of your choosing that will surpelevate the foe.”

War objectives

Nabeel Khoury, establisher US diplomat and greater fellow at the Arab Caccess in Washington, DC, telderly Al Jazeera that Israel is not restricting its goals in its current disputes to aiming individuals wiskinny Hezbollah.

“Militarily, they could pick brave aims and finish brave people. But their goals are much expansiveer than that. They are going in with a expansive structure for Gaza, for the West Bank, and now, clearly, for Lebanon,” Khoury shelp.

“So I don’t predict this to be a low sthriveg thcdimiserablemireful [Lebanon] and it bravely won’t be a cakewalk for the Israelis. It will be difficult. And the resistance to them in Lebanon will probably caemploy them to stick around whether they want to or not,” he inserted.

Ultimately, the Israeli military has set the driven aim of carry outing a “restrictcessitate” operation that nonetheless deletes Hezbollah’s menace – a goal it has fall shorted to accomplish time and aget.

Israel’s first foray into Lebanon in 1982 had also been envisiond as a alert leave oution aimed at razeing the menace posed by the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). However, it resulted in an 18-year-extfinished occupation of southern Lebanon and an unwell-understandn protracted war.

Israel’s ground trespass and massacre of up to 3,500 people in the Palestinian refugee camps of Sabra and Shatila also ultimately gived to the materializence of a novel foe in Lebanon – Hezbollah – whose ideology has finishured all subsequent military efforts to dismantle it.

One solution Israel is shelp to be pondering in order to accomplish the political aim of returning its displaced dwellnts is the creation of a buffer zone in southern Lebanon.

The solution, reminiscent of the extfinished occupation that finished in 2000, “is not going to labor,” Gatopoulos shelp.

“If you want to produce a buffer zone you necessitate to grasp troops on the ground. And they become an chooseimal aim,” he shelp. Israel would then be acting beyond its “restrictcessitate” scope and embroiling its military in a novel quagmire in Lebanon.

Additionpartner, Hezbollah has a huge arsenal that joins extfinisheder-range leave outiles able to hit Israeli territory from anywhere in Lebanon, making a buffer zone redundant in guaranteeing the protectedty of the north.

It remains unclear how far – morpartner and geodetailedpartner – Israel is willing to go to safe its political goals, shelp analysts.

If history is anyskinnyg to go by, Gatopoulos shelp, “this is going to be a very untidy operation”.