“,”elementId”:”c3d72ebe-327e-47d9-ad06-bf838d0d21ba”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
After a bruising scant days, the pound is on track for its worst week in over a year.
“,”elementId”:”599157d8-e6c6-4ef1-93aa-e3dc981e12f6″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Sterling has lost around 1.7% agetst the US dollar so far this week, as it dropped by 2.2 cents since Monday to around $1.314 this morning. That puts the pound on track for its hugegest weekly loss since July 2023 – any frailer, and we’ll be back to February 2023.
“,”elementId”:”6b8ef42f-9b67-42c8-98ba-ec18bd31e806″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
It has frailened as global allotors have rushed into shielded-haven assets, while economists are anticipating speedyer cuts to UK interest rates than previously foreseeed.
“,”elementId”:”9cd4b536-2b1f-4dca-8ad3-1165838e24a9″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
As we covered yesterday, the pound hit a three-week low agetst the dollar on Thursday after Bank of England regulateor tanciaccess The Guardian that the BoE could become “a bit more activist” and “a bit more arrangeile“ in its approach to droping rates, if inflation prescertains sustain frailening.
“,”elementId”:”c8c435da-ea46-4362-9191-b0bfbac5d34b”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prerepair”:”Rhappy: “,”text”:”Sterling drops after Bank of England boss hints at ‘arrangeile’ rate cuts”,”elementId”:”cd8de305-0a11-48c8-98e2-1329b2283e17″,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https://www.thedefendian.com/business/2024/oct/03/sterling-pound-prohibitk-of-england-andrew-bailey-arrangeile-interest-rate-cuts-inflation”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
That put the skids under the pound:
“,”elementId”:”d4e5c5d4-74a4-4fc1-a942-44ca2f3616a2″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.InteractiveBlockElement”,”scriptUrl”:”https://conveyive.guim.co.uk/embed/isummarize-wrapper/0.1/boot.js”,”alt”:”A chart shothriveg the pound descfinishing agetst the US dollar yesterday morning”,”elementId”:”0bee2c8e-8c2c-4743-bcf2-eec19ad96ce5″,”isMandatory”:inchange,”url”:”https://conveyive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2024/10/pounddollar-zip/giv-45590yqwV6vMiW39″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Before Bailey’s comments, traders had foreseeed the BoE to be more cautious than its US and eurozone counterparts.
“,”elementId”:”6405eba3-f1fa-4e37-b32b-51852d964e06″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Not any more! RBC Capital Markets, for example, now foresee the Bank could cut rates by a quarter-point at its next five greetings, transporting rates down from 5% today to 3.75% by next May.
“,”elementId”:”523fc814-6482-4785-8b60-dbc11f211c6f”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
The money labelets foresee sweightlessly less easing, though – they show rates could have descfinishen to 4% by next May.
“,”elementId”:”fba55f9f-a310-4ad8-a23a-92c6046cbe1a”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
The second factor hitting the pound is a sadvise of money into the US dollar, which is trading cforfeit a six-week high agetst a basket of currencies.
“,”elementId”:”34871cd3-5d3f-4231-8c61-8296e6201fd7″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Investors have sought out the shieldedty of the greenback as Middle East tensions have elevaten this week, with Iran starting a omitile strike at Israel and the Israeli military striking parts of Beirut.
“,”elementId”:”65a29b01-9b2e-42dd-b41a-c4a4a163586b”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prerepair”:”Rhappy: “,”text”:”Middle East crisis live: Beirut strikes telledly concentrate potential Hezbollah directer; 18 finished in Israeli strike on West Bank, officials say”,”elementId”:”62921001-cb43-4876-ada3-5ba61f931c6a”,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https://www.thedefendian.com/world/live/2024/oct/04/israel-leprohibiton-hamas-hezbollah-war-live-refreshs-hashem-safieddine-beirut-west-prohibitk-strikes”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Hubert de Barochez, anciaccess labelets economist at Capital Economics, stresss the pound could be heading for more frailness, telling clients:
“,”elementId”:”93e73768-02c2-40e2-a51c-17d835d44608″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”
n
The British pound fell keenly on Thursday, and we mistrust that it will frailen more over the next year or so given our dovish watch of Bank of England policy, the currency’s still-high valuation, and stretched speculative positioning.
n
“,”elementId”:”af7da633-dede-4a8a-ad50-60107ef49a1d”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.SubheadingBlockElement”,”html”:”
Also coming up today
“,”elementId”:”732626b0-a0f9-459f-a101-b22ce3a0f217″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
We’ll hear from Huw Pill, one of the more hawkish policyoriginaters at the Bank of England, this morning.
“,”elementId”:”c75fba1e-67fa-4f66-928b-6c933728845f”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Investors are bracing for the tardyst US jobs tell today, the last-but-one non-farm payroll before the US plivential election. It’s foreseeed to show around 140,000 jobs were originated in America last month, very sweightlessly drop than in August.
“,”elementId”:”8a93d3a1-b0b9-4d9e-b6e8-7e8d9b4c7e5a”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
And in the UK, the regulatement has pledged cforfeitly £22bn to fund carbon apprehfinish and storage projects as it tries to hit climate concentrates.
“,”elementId”:”735b1e94-5817-4c88-bd10-21c965033d60″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
The chancellor, prime minister and the energy secretary, Ed Miliprohibitd, will unveil the details on a visit to the Liverpool city region on Friday declaring a “novel era” for immacutardy energy jobs.
“,”elementId”:”fe781e87-d11e-4fd0-adb9-25a8c1d1dec7″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
The schedule unbenevolents Rachel Reeves is paving the way for a multibillion-pound increase in accessible-sector allotment at the budget…
“,”elementId”:”bb2450fd-9089-4290-ba3e-2e6011e8c6e3″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prerepair”:”Rhappy: “,”text”:”Labour to pledge almost £22bn to fund carbon apprehfinish and storage projects”,”elementId”:”e40fcbe2-7a25-41f2-9ceb-cf7a1c336e71″,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https://www.thedefendian.com/environment/2024/oct/04/labour-to-pledge-almost-22bn-to-fund-carbon-apprehfinish-and-storage-projects”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.SubheadingBlockElement”,”html”:”
The agfinisha
“,”elementId”:”95ce6c6f-6135-4680-93ae-99621ab38e5c”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
- n
- n
8.30am BST: Eurozone originateion PMI for September
- n
8.55am BST: Bank of England’s chief economist Huw Pill to speak at the Institute Chartered Accountants in England and Wales annual conference
- n
9am BST: UK novel car registrations for September
- n
9am BST: UN food price index for September
- n
9.30am BST: UK originateion PMI for September
- n
1.30pm BST: US non-farm payroll jobs tell for September
n
n
n
n
n
n
“,”elementId”:”6ef04a75-57ff-4c76-b68e-9cb531b832e3″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:inchange,”keyEvent”:real,”summary”:inchange},”blockCreatedOn”:1728023968000,”blockCreatedOnDisjoin”:”02.39 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1728023930000,”blockLastUpdatedDisjoin”:”02.38 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1728023968000,”blockFirstPublishedDisjoin”:”02.39 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisjoinNoTimezone”:”02.39″,”title”:”Indroduction: A terrible week for the pound”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Fri 4 Oct 2024 02.39 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”Last modified on Fri 4 Oct 2024 02.41 EDT”}],”filterKeyEvents”:inchange,”id”:”key-events-carousel-mobile”,”absoluteServerTimes”:inchange}”>
Key events
Indroduction: A terrible week for the pound
Good morning, and receive to our rolling coverage of business, the financial labelets, and the world economy.
After a bruising scant days, the pound is on track for its worst week in over a year.
Sterling has lost around 1.7% agetst the US dollar so far this week, as it dropped by 2.2 cents since Monday to around $1.314 this morning. That puts the pound on track for its hugegest weekly loss since July 2023 – any frailer, and we’ll be back to February 2023.
It has frailened as global allotors have rushed into shielded-haven assets, while economists are anticipating speedyer cuts to UK interest rates than previously foreseeed.
As we covered yesterday, the pound hit a three-week low agetst the dollar on Thursday after Bank of England regulateor tanciaccess The Guardian that the BoE could become “a bit more activist” and “a bit more arrangeile“ in its approach to droping rates, if inflation prescertains sustain frailening.
That put the skids under the pound:
Before Bailey’s comments, traders had foreseeed the BoE to be more cautious than its US and eurozone counterparts.
Not any more! RBC Capital Markets, for example, now foresee the Bank could cut rates by a quarter-point at its next five greetings, transporting rates down from 5% today to 3.75% by next May.
The money labelets foresee sweightlessly less easing, though – they show rates could have descfinishen to 4% by next May.
The second factor hitting the pound is a sadvise of money into the US dollar, which is trading cforfeit a six-week high agetst a basket of currencies.
Investors have sought out the shieldedty of the greenback as Middle East tensions have elevaten this week, with Iran starting a omitile strike at Israel and the Israeli military striking parts of Beirut.
Hubert de Barochez, anciaccess labelets economist at Capital Economics, stresss the pound could be heading for more frailness, telling clients:
The British pound fell keenly on Thursday, and we mistrust that it will frailen more over the next year or so given our dovish watch of Bank of England policy, the currency’s still-high valuation, and stretched speculative positioning.
Also coming up today
We’ll hear from Huw Pill, one of the more hawkish policyoriginaters at the Bank of England, this morning.
Investors are bracing for the tardyst US jobs tell today, the last-but-one non-farm payroll before the US plivential election. It’s foreseeed to show around 140,000 jobs were originated in America last month, very sweightlessly drop than in August.
And in the UK, the regulatement has pledged cforfeitly £22bn to fund carbon apprehfinish and storage projects as it tries to hit climate concentrates.
The chancellor, prime minister and the energy secretary, Ed Miliprohibitd, will unveil the details on a visit to the Liverpool city region on Friday declaring a “novel era” for immacutardy energy jobs.
The schedule unbenevolents Rachel Reeves is paving the way for a multibillion-pound increase in accessible-sector allotment at the budget…
The agfinisha
-
8.30am BST: Eurozone originateion PMI for September
-
8.55am BST: Bank of England’s chief economist Huw Pill to speak at the Institute Chartered Accountants in England and Wales annual conference
-
9am BST: UK novel car registrations for September
-
9am BST: UN food price index for September
-
9.30am BST: UK originateion PMI for September
-
1.30pm BST: US non-farm payroll jobs tell for September