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Oscars 2024 Best Picture Predictions: Nominees & Winner


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Summary

  • The 2024 Oscars Best Picture race is becoming more diverse in genre and style thanks to an expanded and more diverse voting body.
  • Front-runner titles for Best Picture include Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon, but awards season is still in its early stages and campaigning will play a role in the final decision.
  • Other potential Best Picture nominees to watch for include American Fiction, Maestro, The Holdovers, and Poor Things, among others.

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The Oscars 2024 race is heating up, as a growing list of movies hope to compete for a coveted Best Picture nomination with hopes of winning the Academy Awards’ top prize. Hollywood’s biggest awards ceremony has undergone significant changes in recent years that have brought in an expanded and more diverse voting body. The effects of this have been seen across the board, but the Best Picture nominees have become more varied in genre and style than before. This has also been aided by the decision to expand the category to always nominate 10 movies, which is perfect for a year like 2024 with several strong contenders.

Predictions for Best Picture have long included a few front-runner titles among the expected 2024 Oscars nominees, such as Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer and Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, and that has not changed after their releases. While they might seem like the strongest contenders to earn the biggest Academy Award, awards season is still in its relative infancy, with plenty of jockeying, campaigning, and shrewd tactics sure to factor into the final decision. With that in mind, this list of the 2024 Oscars’ Best Picture nominations and predicted winner will be updated as the January 2024 nominations announcement date approaches. Screen Rant’s predicted Best Picture nominees are:

Movie

Studio

Producers

1

Oppenheimer

Warner Bros.

Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, Christopher Nolan

2

Killers of the Flower Moon

Apple Studios

Dan Friedkin, Martin Scorsese, Bradley Thomas, Daniel Lupi

3

Barbie

Warner Bros.

David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley, Robbie Brenner

4

Poor Things

Searchlight Pictures

Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone

5

Maestro

Netflix

Fred Berner, Bradley Cooper, Amy Durning, Kristie Macosko Krieger, Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg

6

The Holdovers

Focus Features

Mark Johnson, Bill Block, David Hemingson

7

The Zone of Interest

A24

Ewa Puszczynska, James Wilson

8

Past Lives

A24

David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon, Pamela Koffler

9

American Fiction

Amazon Studios/MGM

Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson, Jermaine Johnson

10

May December

Netflix

Jessica Elbaum, Will Ferrell, Christine Vachon, Pamela Koffler, Natalie Portman, Sophie Mas, Grant S. Johnson, Tyler W. Konney

Past Lives returns to the predicted top 10, knocking out Origin

The list of predicted Best Picture nominees at the 2024 Oscars is bound to change, as more movies are released and the positioning of them in the eyes of the Academy’s voting body switches. That means several other movies should still be considered contenders to earn nominations if they have an incredibly strong reception or re-appraisals of previously released movies take place. Other potential movies that could receive Best Picture nominations include:

Movie

Studio

Producer

Origin

Neon

Ava DuVernay, Paul Garnes

The Color Purple

Warner Bros.

Oprah Winfrey, Steven Spielberg, Scott Sanders, Quincy Jones

Anatomy of a Fall

Neon

Marie-Ange Luciani, David Thion

The Iron Claw

A24

Tessa Ross, Derrin Schlesinger, Juliette Howell, Angus Lamont

Napoleon

Apple Studios

Ridley Scott, Kevin J. Walsh, Mark Huffam, Joaquin Phoenix

Ferrari

Neon

Michael Mann, P.J. Van Sandwijk, Marie Savare, John Lesher, Thomas Hayslip, John Friedberg, Andrea Iervolino, Monika Bacardi, Gareth West, Lars Sylvest, Thorsten Schumacher, Laura Rister

The Killer

Netflix

Ceán Chaffin

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Sony

Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, Avi Arad, Christina Steinberg

Saltburn

Amazon Studios/MGM

Emerald Fennell, Josey McNamara, Tom Ackerley, Margot Robbie

Air

Amazon Studios

David Ellison, Jesse Sisgold, Jon Weinbach, Ben Affleck, Matt Damon, Madison Ainley, Jeff Robinov, Peter Guber, Jason Michael Berman

Priscilla

A24

Sofia Coppola, Youree Henley, Lorenzo Mieli

All of Us Strangers

Searchlight Pictures

Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Sarah Harvey

Asteroid City

Searchlight Pictures

Wes Anderson, Steven Rales, Jeremy Dawson

The Boys in the Boat

Amazon Studios/MGM

Grant Heslov, George Clooney

11 May December

Elizabeth (Natalie Portman) taking notes while Gracie (Julianne Moore) puts on makeup in May December

May December

Release Date
December 1, 2023

Distributor(s)
Netflix

Netflix has a contender for Best Picture it appears in Todd Haynes’ movie May December. The film started to gain recognition following its debut at the Cannes Film Festival, which is when Netflix came aboard to distribute the drama. Natalie Portman stars as an actress researching a woman, played by Julianne Moore, who she is about to play in a movie. The meta-movie story could hit well with the Academy just as it has with critics at large. This would be the first Best Picture Oscar nomination for any movie Todd Haynes has directed. Its case looks stronger after a Golden Globes Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy nomination.

Related

Golden Globes 2024 Nominations 11 Biggest Implications On The Oscars Race

Even though the ceremonies are different, there’s no doubt that the 2024 Golden Globes nominations will have a big impact on the upcoming Oscars race.

10 American Fiction

Erika Alexander Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction

American Fiction

Release Date
September 8, 2023

Director
Cord Jefferson

Cast
Jeffrey Wright , Tracee Ellis Ross , John Ortiz , erika alexander , Leslie Uggams , Adam Brody​ , Keith David , Issa Rae , Sterling K. Brown

Distributor(s)
Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer

Amazon Studios and MGM have hope of hearing American Fiction earn a Best Picture Oscar nomination in 2024 based on current trends. The directorial debut of Cord Jefferson looks to be among the biggest crowd-pleasers of the year, one that is only bolstered by the strong performances of Jeffrey Wright and Sterling K. Brown. Its most notable awards season victory so far is winning the People’s Choice Award at TIFF following its premiere. The praise and adoration for American Fiction has only grown since then, including earning a Golden Globe nomination for Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy.

9

8 Past Lives

Greta Lee and Teo Yoo looking at each other on a ferry in Past Lives

Past Lives

Release Date
January 21, 2023

Director
Celine Song

Cast
Greta Lee , Teo Yoo , John Magaro

Past Lives has been pinpointed as a likely 2024 Oscars contender since before 2023’s ceremony even took place. The emotional romantic drama had its debut at the Sundance Film Festival in January 2023, which is where the first wave of rave reviews came from. The movie had a slow rollout as it was taken to many other film festivals ahead of its June theatrical release. Past Lives is among the best-reviewed movies of 2023, and the 98% Rotten Tomatoes score has started bringing in some recognition ahead of the Oscars, including a Best Motion Picture – Drama nomination from the Golden Globes.

7 The Zone of Interest

A couple lying down in grass in The Zone of Interest

Director: Jonathan Glazer

Cast: Christian Friedel, Sandra Hüller

The return of Jonathan Glazer over a decade after his last movie has helped position The Zone of Interest firmly in the Best Picture race. The historical drama focused on an Auschwitz commandant starting a life near a concentration camp has been heralded by critics for tackling difficult subjects and re-examining horrific events. The Zone of Interest had its world premiere at Cannes, where it lost the Palme d’Or to Anatomy of a Fall, but continued to earn high praise at subsequent showings at Telluride and the Toronto International Film Festival. The fact that it earned a Golden Globes nomination for Best Motion Picture – Drama bolsters its chances.

6 The Holdovers

Paul Giamatti in a brown suit in front of a chalk board in The Holdovers

The Holdovers

Release Date
November 10, 2023

Director
Alexander Payne

Cast
Paul Giamatti , Da’Vine Joy Randolph , Dominic Sessa , Carrie Preston

Distributor(s)
Focus Features

The Holdovers is heading toward a Best Picture Oscars nomination in 2024 barring any major setbacks it seems. Alexander Payne is no stranger to such potential success, as he delivered his first Best Picture nominee in 2012 with The Descendants. He has also won two Oscars for his screenplays, and The Holdovers looks to be a contender for that award in 2024, along with Paul Giamatti thought of as in the running for a Best Actor nomination too. From the initial reviews following the movie’s debut at Telluride to its Golden Globes nomination for Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy, The Holdovers is contending.

5 Maestro

Bradley Cooper as Leonard Bernstein conducting in Maestro

Maestro

Release Date
December 20, 2023

Distributor(s)
Netflix

Five years after A Star Is Born received a Best Picture nomination, Bradley Cooper’s biopic about the legendary composer Leonard Bernstein is poised to repeat the awards success of his directorial debut – as long as Maestro‘s controversy does not stop it. While it was always thought to be an awards contender, Maestro‘s likelihood of receiving a Best Picture nomination at the 2024 Oscars increased with its debut at the Venice International Film Festival, where it was nominated for the top prize, the Golden Lion. Now that Bradley Cooper’s movie is out and a Golden Globe nominee for Best Motion Picture – Drama, its position has strengthened.

Related

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4 Poor Things

Emma Stone looking shocked in Poor Things

Poor Things

Release Date
September 8, 2023

Director
Yorgos Lanthimos

Distributor(s)
Searchlight Pictures

Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone have joined forces again to create one of the biggest contenders to win the 2024 Oscars’ Best Picture. Following their shared success with The Favourite in 2018, Poor Things has been lauded for its creativity and uniqueness ever since it premiered at Venice, where it won the prestigious Golden Lion award. The result greatly increased the chance of a nomination, and possibly even a win, for Best Picture. Recent Golden Lion winners that became Best Picture winners include Nomadland and The Shape of Water. Adding a Golden Globes nomination for Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy should help too.

3 Barbie

Margot Robbie looking shocked in Barbie

Barbie

Release Date
July 21, 2023

Cast
Margot Robbie , Ryan Gosling , Simu Liu , Ariana Greenblatt , Helen Mirren , Nicola Coughlan , John Cena , Will Ferrell , Ritu Arya , Michael Cera , America Ferrera , Alexandra Shipp , Kate McKinnon

Distributor(s)
Warner Bros. Pictures

The overall success of Barbie is expected to translate to a 2024 Oscars nomination for Best Picture. The movie surpassed all box office expectations on its way to becoming the biggest movie of the year, and it now is on track to continue Greta Gerwig’s Oscars streak. Her previous two movies, Little Women and Lady Bird, both received Best Picture nominations under the older format. The support for Barbie‘s 2024 Oscars campaign can be seen with its various love from critics circles to dominating the 2024 Golden Globes nominations, where it tied for the second most nominations by a single film in history.

2 Killers of the Flower Moon

Leonardo DiCaprio looking up in Killers of the Flower Moon

Martin Scorsese has one of the strongest Best Picture contenders for the 2024 Oscars with Killers of the Flower Moon. Its premiere at Cannes led to a rapturous response heralding the true story as the latest Scorsese masterpiece, bringing all three of its leads to be viewed as locks for their own Oscar nominations. Martin Scorsese’s Oscars nomination history is significant, as he’s had nine movies nominated in the biggest category, but only The Departed won. The career legacy angle and a Golden Globes Best Motion Picture – Drama nomination could be used to the movie’s benefit, giving Killers of the Flower Moon a strong narrative to win.

1 Oppenheimer (Winner)

Cillian Murphy as Oppenheimer celebrating in front of an American flag

Oppenheimer

Release Date
July 21, 2023

Distributor(s)
Universal Pictures

Oppenheimer winning Best Picture at the 2024 Oscars appears to be the most likely outcome at this point. Christopher Nolan’s biopic about J. Robert Oppenheimer is arguably his best movie to date. Like Scorsese, a Nolan movie has never won Best Picture, but his movies have only received nominations twice before. Oppenheimer is guaranteed to at least be among the list of nominees announced in January 2024. Its case to win the award comes through the overall acclaim and success of the movie, which now includes a Best Motion Picture – Drama nomination from the Golden Globes.

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