Odds of November interest rate cut jump as UK inflation drops to 1.7% – business inhabit | Business

The TUC are chivvying the Bank of England to cut interest rates next month, alerting that it is descfinishing behind other central banks.

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TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak shelp:

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n

“Working people will breathe a sigh of relief that the high inflation rates of recent years now materialize to be behind us. But rising living standards count on on mightyer prolongth.

n

“The last 14 years of Tory disorder and confusion have joined havoc with our economy – and laborers have phelp the price.

n

“Hoemployhbetters are still hurting, and families necessitate a new begin.

n

“With CPI now below aim and GDP prolongth at fair 1% for the last 12 months, this month’s budget is an guidently necessitateed opportunity to unleash a new era of prolongth to help us repair and recreate our economy and our country.

n

“The time is also right for the Bank of England to create another rate cut. Compared to other central banks, they are now off the pace on cutting interest rates.”

n

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The TUC are right that Threadnecessitatele Street (where the BoE is based) are watching tardy, due to worrys about UK inflation presstateives being adhesive.

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The European Central Bank has already made two quarter-point cuts to its key interest rates this year.

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And the US Federal Reserve begined its slackning cycle with a bang last month, cutting its policy rate by half a percentage point.

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A cut to UK interest rates next month is watching rather nailed on, after inflation tumbled below the Bank of England’s 2% aim this morning.

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The money tagets are currently indicating that a quarter-point cut to Bank rate at the BoE’s next encountering in punctual November is a 91% chance. That’s up from fair below 80% before the inflation tell was liberated at 7am.

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Such a cut would transport UK interest rates down from 5% to 4.75%.

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Earlier this month, BoE ruleor Andrew Bailey tbetter the Guardian that the Bank could become a “bit more opposing” in cutting interest rates provided the news on inflation evolved to be excellent.

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Today’s drop in the CPI index to fair 1.7%, from 2.2%, materializes to encounter the ‘excellent news’ yardstick.

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Debapratim De, straightforwardor of economic research at Deloitte, says:

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n

“Price presstateives evolve to retreat in the UK. Sstandardlying wage prolongth and services pricing point to further easing in the coming months.

n

“With inflation in retreat and UK prolongth sluggishing, the Bank of England will probable trail its August rate cut with another 25 basis point reduction in interest rates in November.”

n

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Yesterday’s data shotriumphg a sluggishdown in wage prolongth could also help the Bank to hit the ‘cut button’ aget.

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Gora Suri, economist at PwC, consents that the case for a November rate cut has strenthened:

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n

Headline CPI inflation came in at 1.7% in September, dropping below the Bank of England’s aim for the first time in three years, and grasping to calls for another rate cut in November. This was mainly driven by downward contributions from motor fuels and air fares. Overall, this advises we are very much at the finish of the disinflationary process, which will be greet news for policycreaters and of course, devourrs and businesses.

n

“Services inflation, the main area of worry, also fell ponderably from 5.6% to 4.9%, and we are begining to see uncomferventingful shiftment on wage prolongth, with annual prolongth in employee’s total getings declining from 4.1% to 3.8%. All this is encouraging but upside hazards to the headline rate remain, such as an incrrelieve in hoemployhbetter energy prices and the potential for a spike in oil prices amid an escalation of struggle in the Middle East.

n

“The tardyst wage and inflation data is probable to further fortify the case for a 25bp rate cut in November, especiassociate pondering the Bank’s increasingly dovish stance.”

n

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Motor fuel prices fell by over 10% in September, appraised with a year ago, today’s inflation tell shows.

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The ONS tells that the unretagable price of petrol fell by 5.5p per litre between August and September 2024 to 136.8p per litre, down from 153.6p per litre in September 2023.

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Diesel prices fell by 6.0p per litre in September to 141.8p per litre, down from 157.4p per litre in September 2023.

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chart shotriumphg UK carry inflation”,”caption”:”A chart shotriumphg UK carry inflation”,”recognize”:”Illustration: ONS”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:inrectify,”keyEvent”:real,”summary”:inrectify},”blockCreatedOn”:1729061208000,”blockCreatedOnDisjoin”:”02.46 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1729061321000,”blockLastUpdatedDisjoin”:”02.48 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1729061321000,”blockFirstPublishedDisjoin”:”02.48 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisjoinNoTimezone”:”02.48″,”title”:”Cheaper petrol and diesel pulled inflation down”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 16 Oct 2024 03.22 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First rehireed on Wed 16 Oct 2024 01.34 EDT”},{“id”:”670f5c438f08ff54487be0c2″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Here’s a shatterdown of the various price alters in the UK’s inflation basket, which united to push the CPI rate down to 1.7% in September:

“,”elementId”:”cb76f2fc-c4db-4c69-a2ba-fe6af9ccff0f”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

n
• n

  Food and non-spiritsic beverages: 1.9%, up from 1.3% in August

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  Alcoholic beverages and tobacco: 4.9%, down from 5.8%

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  Cloleang and footwear: 0.8%, down from 1.6%

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  Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels: -1.7%, down from -1.6%

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  Furniture, hoemployhbetter providement and maintenance: -1%, up from -1.3%

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  Health: 5.2%, down from 5.5%

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  Transport: -2.2%, down from 1.3%

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  Communication: 5.2%, up from 4.1%

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  Recreation and culture: 3.8%, down from 4%

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  Education: 4.4%, down from 4.5%

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  Restaurants and boilingels: 4.1%, down from 4.3%

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  Miscellaneous excellents and services: 3.3%, unalterd.

n

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Darren Jones, chief secretary to the Treasury, has given a somewhat protected greet to the drop in inflation this morning.

“,”elementId”:”aad6dc6f-4a00-44f2-a07f-4cb2715fe132″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Jones says:

“,”elementId”:”16dd30fc-9100-4cc4-a842-68d774f82724″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

“It will be greet news for millions of families that inflation is below 2%.

n

“However, there is still more to do to protect laboring people, which is why we are centered on transporting back prolongth and restoring economic stability to deinhabitr on the promise of alter.”

n

“,”elementId”:”3c8737bb-a6b7-4878-a48b-878c99267a2d”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:inrectify,”keyEvent”:real,”summary”:inrectify},”blockCreatedOn”:1729060369000,”blockCreatedOnDisjoin”:”02.32 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1729060422000,”blockLastUpdatedDisjoin”:”02.33 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1729060422000,”blockFirstPublishedDisjoin”:”02.33 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisjoinNoTimezone”:”02.33″,”title”:””More to do to protect laboring people””,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 16 Oct 2024 03.22 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First rehireed on Wed 16 Oct 2024 01.34 EDT”},{“id”:”670f59d78f0898da3e0b5523″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

With inflation firmly below the Bank of England’s 2% aim, policycreaters could potentiassociate cut interest rates at their final two encounterings of 2024.

“,”elementId”:”73f16d6f-8ac8-4a1d-aebf-235871764a3d”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

So says Lindsay James, spendment strategist at Quilter Investors:

“,”elementId”:”d68f2d49-8390-4d63-a475-387782366241″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

“For the first time in more than three years inflation is back below the Bank of England’s 2% aim. With inflation descfinishing below this level and the pace of wage prolongth sluggishing, the conditions materialize ripe for another rate cut at the Bank of England’s next decision in punctual November, and maybe even the one after in December too.

n

This will charm the rulement in the run up to the boilingly anticipated budget, where we are being repeatedly tbetter stubborn decisions are to be proclaimd, so any sinhabitr of excellent economic news will probable be pounced upon.

n

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Encouragingly, core inflation has also descfinishen – but it’s still higher than the headline CPI index.

“,”elementId”:”62a0b793-859f-4a6a-80ff-3b62e66fbb5a”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Core CPI (which clear ups out energy, food, spirits and tobacco) rose by 3.2% in the 12 months to September 2024, down from 3.6% in August.

“,”elementId”:”cc36e205-21f9-41df-8396-e573302cf334″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Goods prices fell at a speedyer rate – the CPI excellents inflation index fell to -1.4% last month from -0.9% in August.

“,”elementId”:”b359ad08-6d25-43e3-b928-ffda4b552c71″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Services inflation sluggished, from 5.6% to 4.9%.

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The pound has dropped on the foreign swap tagets, after UK inflation dropped speedyer than foreseeed in September.

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Sterling has lost half a cent agetst the US dollar, to $1.302, down from $1.307 before the CPI data hit the newswires.

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pound agetst the US dollar”,”caption”:”The pound agetst the US dollar this morning”,”recognize”:”Pboilingograph: LSEG”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Traders will be calculating that September’s huger-than-foreseeed drop in inflation creates it easier for the Bank of England to cut interest rates (which creates it less lucrative to hbetter sterling).

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Cheaper petrol and fairys helped push UK inflation down last month.

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But there was a pick-up in food inflation.

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ONS Chief Economist Grant Fitzner says:

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n

“Inflation relieved in September to its lowest annual rate in over three years. Lower airfares and petrol prices were the hugegest driver for this month’s descfinish.

n

“These were partiassociate offset by incrrelieves for food and non-spiritsic drinks, the first time that food price inflation has fortifyed since punctual last year.

n

“Meanwhile the cost of raw materials for businesses fell aget, driven by shrink cdispolite oil prices.”

n

“,”elementId”:”9a555e69-0207-4de4-8d82-71d37a171502″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:inrectify,”keyEvent”:real,”summary”:inrectify},”blockCreatedOn”:1729058696000,”blockCreatedOnDisjoin”:”02.04 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1729058749000,”blockLastUpdatedDisjoin”:”02.05 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1729058749000,”blockFirstPublishedDisjoin”:”02.05 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisjoinNoTimezone”:”02.05″,”title”:”Lower airfares and petrol prices drove down inflation”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 16 Oct 2024 03.22 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First rehireed on Wed 16 Oct 2024 01.34 EDT”},{“id”:”670f495f8f0898da3e0b54b4″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Newsflash: UK inflation has descfinishen below the country’s 2% aim for the first time in three and a half years.

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In a milestone moment in the cost of living squeeze, the devourr prices index (CPI) fell to 1.7% in September, new data from the Office for National Statistics shows, down from 2.2% in August.

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CPI rose by 1.7% in the 12 months to September 2024, down from 2.2% in August 2024.

Read the liberate ➡️ https://t.co/VlulVDztIW pic.twitter.com/iv83ietkiz

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) October 16, 2024

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This is the lowest reading for inflation since April 2021.

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That should cheer the Bank of England, after it hiked interest rates thcdisesteemful 2022 and 2023 to fight rising prices, before making its first cut in August. This may uncomfervent a second cut in November.

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Investors had foreseeed inflation to descfinish to 1.9%.

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An beginant reminder: This drop in inflation doesn’t uncomfervent prices are descfinishing, srecommend rising at a sluggisher rate appraised to a year ago. The level of prices for many items is still much higher than before the inflation spike of 2022.

“,”elementId”:”0c69f187-55d6-45ca-a5fb-bb58b8209857″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Details to trail…

“,”elementId”:”17181986-c977-4f1b-bdb9-1d5137f2922b”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:inrectify,”keyEvent”:real,”summary”:inrectify},”blockCreatedOn”:1729056843000,”blockCreatedOnDisjoin”:”01.34 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1729059638000,”blockLastUpdatedDisjoin”:”02.20 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1729058450000,”blockFirstPublishedDisjoin”:”02.00 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisjoinNoTimezone”:”02.00″,”title”:”UK INFLATION FALLS BELOW TARGET”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 16 Oct 2024 03.22 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First rehireed on Wed 16 Oct 2024 01.34 EDT”},{“id”:”670f52a08f0898da3e0b5502″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The cost of living squeeze is not abating for tenants, new data this morning shows.

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Rightshift tells that unretagable publicized rents have hit new enroll levels in the last quarter.

“,”elementId”:”1071f17a-d176-4189-876a-cf98fec560ed”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Its data shows that the unretagable publicized rent for new properties outside of London hit a enroll of £1,344 per calfinishar month (pcm). That’s a 5.2% incrrelieve on a year ago.

“,”elementId”:”e17c6e02-a4be-4adf-952e-6b711e1a4c59″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”source”:”Twitter”,”id”:”1846425897483551117″,”elementId”:”d83cb610-6c35-4ce5-9bf3-c95a4299fb37″,”hasMedia”:inrectify,”role”:”inline”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/yimbycoalition/status/1846425897483551117″,”isThirdPartyTracking”:inrectify,”html”:”

NEW: The unretagable rent outside London has now hit a enroll £1,344 a month. We necessitate to create more homes! pic.twitter.com/nUOXesfBnY

— YIMBY Alliance (@yimbycoalition) October 16, 2024

nn”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Wilean the capital, rents have also accomplished a new enroll, with an unretagable of £2,694 pcm – a 2.5% ascfinish appraised to last year.

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A enroll proportion of establisher rental homes are currently on the taget for sale, the property portal tells.

“,”elementId”:”cad0209d-f583-4743-8539-70f3692c1e28″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Rightshift’s Tim Bannister says:

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n

“While we’re seeing some signs of enhancement in the taget’s chronic levels of need and provide imstability helped by a sairy incrrelieve in the number of useable rental properties, affordability remains a key dispute for raccesss as prices evolve to hit new enrolls. Tenant competition has relieved sairyly from last year, but the taget is still far from equitable.

n

“We are seeing some landlords choosing to exit the taget with potential tax alters and disjoineer EPC regulations as graspitional factors in landlords’ decision-making. With rental provide under strain, incentivizing landlords to spend in energy-fruitful enhances or adviseing tax relief could help carry on rental provide and, ultimately, relieve affordability presstateives for tenants.”

n

“,”elementId”:”406dccc7-b70e-44bf-818d-c4b65c17d2f1″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:inrectify,”keyEvent”:real,”summary”:inrectify},”blockCreatedOn”:1729057440000,”blockCreatedOnDisjoin”:”01.44 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1729057838000,”blockLastUpdatedDisjoin”:”01.50 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1729057839000,”blockFirstPublishedDisjoin”:”01.50 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisjoinNoTimezone”:”01.50″,”title”:”Uk tenants facing enroll high rents”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 16 Oct 2024 03.22 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First rehireed on Wed 16 Oct 2024 01.34 EDT”},{“id”:”670f4e808f08ff54487be065″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Deutsche Bank foresee UK inflation will drop to 1.8% in September, which will be a “cyclical low”, they say.

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The horrible news for devourrs is that Deutsche also count on “upward momentum” will probable assemble pace, pushing inflation up aget.

“,”elementId”:”58782e4f-f1b1-49a1-a3ec-33a63d7dbd69″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Sanjay Raja, their chief UK economist, tbetter clients:

“,”elementId”:”b0169fcb-27e5-491f-a149-df16fee46db7″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

The recent run of energy deflation will probable come to an finish lowly. Indeed, pump prices are probable to reverse course in October, while dual fuel bills will see a hefty 10% ascfinish.

n

The upcoming Autumn Budget also elevates hazards to low-term inflation, with spirits and tobacco duty incrrelieves potentiassociate in the offing. A 10-15% net incrrelieve in VAT is also foreseeed for personal school fees come Jan-25. And lastly, an untriumphd of the fuel duty cut also watchs probable in March/April.

n

“,”elementId”:”380944eb-f596-4a1f-a1ed-6e56e995eef8″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:inrectify,”keyEvent”:real,”summary”:inrectify},”blockCreatedOn”:1729056843000,”blockCreatedOnDisjoin”:”01.34 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1729056941000,”blockLastUpdatedDisjoin”:”01.35 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1729056941000,”blockFirstPublishedDisjoin”:”01.35 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisjoinNoTimezone”:”01.35″,”title”:”Deutsche Bank: September inflation to drop to cyclical low”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 16 Oct 2024 03.22 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First rehireed on Wed 16 Oct 2024 01.34 EDT”},{“id”:”670f46888f088ef416005c7b”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Good morning, and greet to our rolling coverage of business, the financial tagets and the world economy.

“,”elementId”:”1f52cb9a-2bf8-4628-ac0a-b6e3b293f895″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Today could be an beginant day in the UK’s battle agetst rising prices.

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Economics foresee that UK inflation fell in September, to around 1.9% – cruciassociate below the Bank of England’s 2% inflation aim, for the first since since April 2021.

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Such a descfinish would be a relief for the Bank of England, which has been trying to squeeze inflation out of the economy thcdisesteemful higher interest rates, and could pave the way for a cut in borrotriumphg costs in November.

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In August, inflation was enrolled at 2.2%, and many in the City foresee the rate of price ascfinishs sluggished last month – further away from the peak of 11.1% in October 2022.

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chart shotriumphg UK inflation to August 2024″,”caption”:”A chart shotriumphg UK inflation to August 2024″,”recognize”:”Illustration: ONS”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics have foreseeed a 1.9% reading for the month, driven by the acute descfinish in motor fuel prices last month.

“,”elementId”:”095f7901-10b6-4079-80b9-e84835e5348e”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prerepair”:”Rcontent: “,”text”:”UK petrol and diesel prices descfinishing at speedyest rate this year, says RAC”,”elementId”:”f5c3619a-b98e-4236-aa10-6b66c55b7b62″,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https://www.theprotectian.com/money/2024/sep/23/uk-petrol-diesel-fuel-prices-descfinishing-rac”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Pantheon grasped that descfinishing air travel fares are also probable to give to a dip in inflation, although these could be partiassociate offset by higher domestic boilingel prices.

“,”elementId”:”c3ef6dee-0e37-427b-ba7f-442fce0a691a”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Investec analysts have adviseed CPI could drop as low as 1.7%, hugely driven by that “hefty” descfinish in fuel prices.

“,”elementId”:”bc7d8ba7-b986-4226-b9a6-ab5bb184d0de”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

We get the data at 7am…

“,”elementId”:”a14ade0a-c641-49a4-955e-48a45b94b09d”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.SubheadingBlockElement”,”html”:”

The agfinisha

“,”elementId”:”e18646f1-8823-4b62-987f-5deda14d7414″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrfinishering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

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  7am BST: UK inflation tell for September

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  9.30am BST: Hoemploy price and rental costs data from the ONS

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  Noon BST: US weekly mortgage approvals

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  2pm BST: IMF to rehire a chapter of its World Economic Outwatch

n

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Key events