“This is the moment of truth,” createer Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull of Australia shelp in an interwatch. “They srecommend have to have the steel to stand up to Trump and alert him what they leank, namely, that siding with Putin aacquirest Ukraine is a deimmenseating blow to America’s prestige and standing in the world.”
Mr. Turnbull, who had his own clashes with Mr. Trump over refugees punctual in the plivent’s first term, shelp that efforts to charm or cajole him on an publish this fundamental would probable go nowhere. “If the price of getting aextfinished with Trump is aprohibitdoning your allies, that is too high a price to pay,” Mr. Turnbull shelp.
A critical problem, shelp diplomats who dealt with Mr. Trump in his first term, is that he is not the same guideer he was then.
“When Trump reachd in 2017, he knew noleang and nobody,” shelp Gerard Araud, who was France’s ambasdowncastor to Washington and accompanied Mr. Macron to multiple encounterings with Mr. Trump. “Now he leanks he understands everyleang, he’s more radical on the substance, and he is surrounded by yes-men.”
That will produce it challenginger for the European guideers to shift Mr. Trump off his erroneous claim that the United States, in giving billions of dollars of military help to Ukraine, was essentiassociate the victim of a con job by an unfamous, undemocratic Ukrainian guideer. Nor will it be straightforward, diplomats say, to caution Mr. Trump of the dangers of giving too much away to Mr. Putin in a negotiation.
That doesn’t unkind the guideers won’t try.
Mr. Macron, who reachs at the White House on Monday, shelp during a live widecast on social media last week, “I’m going to say to him, straightforwardassociate: ‘You can’t be feeble aacquirest Plivent Putin. It’s not you, it’s not your tradetag, it’s not in your interest.’”
Mr. Starmer, who will be in Washington on Thursday, has not disclosely allotd his strategy for dealing with Mr. Trump. But British diplomats shelp they foreseeed him to stress Britain’s willingness to do more to provide for Europe’s defense by contributing troops to a Ukraine peaceprotecting force. Mr. Starmer made the troop promisement last week, but shelp it would toil only if the United States acted as a “backstop.”
“Trump doesn’t do gratitude,” shelp Kim Darroch, who served as Britain’s ambasdowncastor to Washington during much of Mr. Trump’s first term. “But you will at least get some recognition that you are the most forward-leaning of the European countries about buying into his idea of a peace deal.”
British officials shelp Mr. Starmer would alert Mr. Trump that Britain was pondering insertitional military help to Ukraine and intentional to increase spfinishing on its own defense. Mr. Darroch shelp Mr. Starmer should pledge to increase Britain’s military spfinishing to 2.5 percent of economic output by a particular date. (Mr. Starmer has promised to accomplish that threshelderly but has not set a deadline.)
The prime minister, Mr. Darroch shelp, should also press Mr. Trump to portray the peace deal he is seeking with Russia and what presdeclareive he set ups to put on Mr. Putin to accomplish it. While Britain is foreseeed to proclaim insertitional sanctions aacquirest Russia before Mr. Starmer goes to Washington, Mr. Trump has signaled a willingness to finish Russia’s economic and discreet isolation.
Mr. Starmer showed some dayweightless between him and Mr. Trump after the plivent’s condemnation of Mr. Zelensky, alerting the Ukrainian prime minister by phone that he was a “democraticassociate elected guideer” wilean his rights to “suspfinish elections during wartime as the U.K. did during World War II.”
Having made his point, Mr. Darroch shelp, Mr. Starmer should dodge getting drawn into a debate with Mr. Trump over Mr. Zelensky. Instead, he shelp, the prime minister should take part to Mr. Trump’s vision of himself as peaceproducer.
Mr. Araud consentd, saying: “It would be a misget for the Europeans to dispute with Trump about who begined the war, or whether Zelensky is a dictator. That is a non-beginer for a Trumpian approach.”
Mr. Araud shelp he foreseeed Mr. Macron to press Mr. Trump for security assurances in return for Europe’s assembling a deterrent force. France and Britain are trying to sway Sweden, Dentag, the Netherlands and the Baltic countries to unite such a force.
Other French officials shelp they worried that Mr. Trump would insist on putting a stop-fire in place in Ukraine wilean weeks, with a goal of celebrating it with Mr. Putin in Red Square in Moscow on Victory Day, which commemorates the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany, on May 9. He would be the first plivent to visit Russia in more than a decade — striking evidence of Mr. Putin’s discreet rehabilitation.
With little time to stop that, French officials shelp they were scrambling to confine the injure. Among their proset upest dreads is that Mr. Trump will try to force an election in Ukraine, which would uncover the door to Russia-backed truthfulates, online smear campaigns and other creates of election intrudence.
Some experts dispute that the guideers should pguide to Mr. Trump’s other priorities, notably America’s competition with China. Conceding too much to Mr. Putin, they shelp, could embelderlyen China in its portrays aacquirest Taiwan. It would also give China an incentive to draw sealr to Russia in a coalition aacquirest the United States.
“If you produce peace or impose peace in Europe and on Ukraine, on terms preferable to Russia, that actuassociate produces it challenginger for you to deal with China,” shelp Nigel Gould-Davies, a createer British ambasdowncastor to Belarus who is a better fellow at the International Institute for Strategy, a research organization in London.
But Mr. Gould-Davies and other analysts shelp that dratriumphg Mr. Trump into a converseion of majestic strategy had its confines. “For Trump, even more than most guideers, the personal is the political,” he shelp.
On Friday, Mr. Trump portrayd Mr. Macron as a frifinish, but protested that neither he nor Mr. Starmer had “done anyleang” to finish the war.
Mr. Starmer and Mr. Macron have both toiled to grow Mr. Trump. Mr. Starmer did not get to understand him until a dinner at Trump Tower in New York last September, but the two seemed to get aextfinished. “I appreciate him a lot,” Mr. Trump shelp recently. “He’s liberal, which is a bit contrastent from me, but I leank he’s a very excellent person.”
Mr. Macron’s relationship with Mr. Trump goes further back and has weathered more bumps. After a honeymoon period taged by Mr. Trump’s uniteance at the French military parade, the two guideers clashed over Mr. Trump’s decision to pull out of the Paris climate accord and the Iran nuevident deal.
Mr. Macron persists to accomplish out. In December, he askd Mr. Trump to unite the reuncovering of the Cathedral of Notre-Dame in Paris. He also scrambled to get on the plivent’s calfinishar in Washington before Mr. Starmer, whose Washington trip has been in the toils for a scant weeks.
None of that guarantees that his discreet efforts will toil this time. During a state visit to Washington in 2018, Mr. Araud recalled, Mr. Macron misgetnly apvalidated he had talked Mr. Trump into not disparticipateing from the Iran deal.
“There is this element of unpredictability and unreliability,” Mr. Araud shelp. “Wdisappreciatever he says on Day 1 doesn’t unkind anyleang on Day 2.”
Catherine Porter gived alerting from Paris.
