It’s 13 December 2023. Excited alerts of a “landtag” global climate concurment reverberate around the world from the COP28 climate summit in Dubai.
At around 11am, weary diplomats with circles under their eyes from fierce, all-night negotiations cheer, cry and hug.
The US’s climate envoy John Kerry throws his arms around German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock. There’s a round of applaemploy for Tina Stege, a fierce recontransientative from the Marshall Islands who had fought among the challengingest for the pledge.
They and more than 190 other countries have fair concurd to “transition away from fossil fuels” – the culmination of a fraught two weeks of talks at the UN conference.
This may not sound very “historic”, given burning fossil fuels is the number one caemploy of climate alter, and these annual talks had been going on for almost 30 years.
But no pact had ever even refered the words “fossil fuels” before – not even the historic Paris Agreement. It had always faced opposition from economies that count on on fossil fuels, appreciate Russia and Saudi Arabia.
This was the first time these countries could stomach such a pledgement – and it was challenging won.
Several countries had fought tooth and nail to hold such words out of the final concurment, now understandn as the “UAE Consensus”.
They had also battled over a pledge to triple renovelable energy by 2030, but that cinched its way into the pact too.
Fast forward to this year, as we approach COP29 in Azerbaijan in November, it’s now possible to alert whether countries have stuck to their pledge – or whether it was all boiling air.
And there is someslenderg unpredicted going on.
The excellent novels
Let’s commence with what’s going well: an explosion in renovelable electricity.
The world’s directing energy authority, the International Energy Agency, recently produced its annual alert tracking energy trends.
Sky News analysis of this data finds the amount of renovelable power predict for 2030 has jumped by 13%, appraised with last year’s predict.
Power produced by renovelables appreciate solar and triumphd is on course to soar from around 4,250 GW today to csurrenderly 10,000 GW in 2030.
That’s not quite a tripling, but an incrrelieve of 2.3 times at least.
How’s the ‘transition away from fossil fuels’ going?
You would slenderk the increaseth of renovelable electricity would unbenevolent a drop in the amount of fossil fuel power.
But, to the dismay of some analysts, the amount the world is predict to employ in 2030 has shown no increasement in comparison with last year’s predict.
And projected coal employ in 2030 has actuassociate incrrelieved since that pledge.
We’re now predicted to burn 10% more coal in 2030 than anticipated this time last year.
So although coal, oil and gas are still on course to peak before 2030 – that’s excellent – their deteriorate sees sluggisher than anticipateed.
That unbenevolents eignoreions of greenhoemploy gases, which are about to peak, will also be higher for lengtheneder.
Countries for whom this may be matter of life and death, such as low-lying island states, are enraged by the paltry carry on.
“Small island states despair that we are defering in vain to see the keen deteriorate in fossil fuel production that was heralded,” shelp Samoa’s Dr Pa’olelei Luteru, who recontransients a vulnerable group of petite island nations understandn as AOSIS.
“Alas, saying someslenderg is one slenderg and actuassociate unbenevolenting it is quite another.”
But why haven’t all these renovelable power arranges made more of a dent in projected fossil fuel employ?
The problem of our ‘insatiable insist for energy’
Although renovelables are exploding in many parts of the world, so is our energy insist.
Dave Jones from energy slenderktank Ember shelp what “got me” in the alert was that the world is “continuing to employ more total energy than anyone was reassociate anticipateing”.
In 2035 the world’s electricity insist is going to be a transport inant 6% higher than anticipated last year, the IEA shelp as it editd up its predict.
That unbenevolents the sdirect in renovelable electricity fair can’t hold up.
This should be “a wake-up call”, shelp Jones. “Are we going to be able to alter that trajectory of our rising, insatiable insist?”
Of course, some of that incrrelieve was anticipateed.
Camilla Born, who has directd various COP plivencies, including the UAE last year, shelp insist incrrelieve was “always going to be there” as countries enhuge.
Also, it’s an indication of the branch offent industries we’re moving into, appreciate electric heat pumps and cars.
But there is someslenderg else disturbing predicts.
The elevate and elevate of air conditioning and AI
Power-hungry air conditioning has absolutely boomed in the last year, as both incomes and temperatures elevate, especiassociate in emerging economies appreciate India and China.
India has been baked by disjoine heatwaves for the last three years in a row, with one this year lasting a record 24 days.
By 2035 global energy insist for air conditioning is due to elevate by an amount fantasticer than the entire Middle East’s electricity employ today.
The problem is not necessarily that people necessitate to stay chilly in a boilingter world, but that many are buying units that employ double the amount of energy than they necessitate to – someslenderg that can be increased with the right policies.
But it’s not fair about emerging economies, it’s actuassociate “an everywhere story”, shelp Jones, with insist now increaseing more aacquire in enhugeed countries too.
On top of this, as our employ of synthetic inalertigence proliferates, a “substantial incrrelieve in electricity consumption from data centres materializes inevitable”, shelp the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Another goal from last year, to double the rate of energy efficiency increasements, has the potential to drop eignoreions by 2030 by more than anyslenderg else, shelp the IEA.
But in a damming indictment, that pledge “sees far out of accomplish under today’s policy settings”, it shelp.
Jones shelp we should be trying to labor out “how we can go thcdisorrowfulmireful this transition less misemploybrimmingy than we are today”.
An alternative way to meacertain carry on on that pledge is by spreadigating what impact countries’ current climate arranges will have on greenhoemploy gas eignoreions, which caemploy climate alter.
These arranges will see eignoreions in 2030 fair 2.6% drop than in 2019, the UN’s climate body (UNFCCC) create in October. Last year predict a 2% descend.
It’s “marginal” carry on, but nowhere csurrender the 43% reduction that scientists say we necessitate. New arranges are due by February and will also test the pledge, but some countries are already rotriumphg back.
Saudi Arabia has claimed it was actuassociate fair one selection on a “menu”, while G20 members have disputed about whether to include it in their own concurments this year.
So did the fossil fuel pledge unbenevolent anyslenderg?
But Born shelp the concurment at COP28 in Dubai was a “echoion of where we were already” as the shift off polluting fossil fuels had already befirearm.
“It fair is very evident how bumpy and challenging that transition away is going to be.”
And countries wouldn’t fight so challenging over pledges if they unbenevolentt noslenderg.
Before the historic Paris Agreement was struck at COP21 in 2015, the world was on course for around 4C of hoting. Now it’s between 2.6-3.1C – still coercionate, but better. Since then, the global pipeline of coal power arrangets has collapsed by 72% and the cost of solar has plummeted by 90%.
Born shelp although that’s still not enough, “the fact that [the transition] is happening, rather than being fair predict to happen at some point, is a very branch offent story that we’re alerting these days”.
What’s next?
The next summit, COP29, commences in Baku, Azerbaijan, on 11 November.
A test of ongoing backing for the “transition away” pledge will be whether it produces it into this year’s final concurment.
Host nation Azerbaijan – a transport inant oil and gas producer – seems enthusiastic to gloss over the hydrocarbon conundrum.
Its direct negotiator Yalchin Rafiyev recently tageder journaenumerates: “We want to have a firm [agreement], but at the same time… Each COP has some main anticipateed hand overables. This year it’s finance.”
And it’s genuine, COP29 has been dubbed the “finance COP” becaemploy its primary aim is to concur a novel fund – aka the New Collective Quantified Goal – to pay for climate meacertains in enhugeing countries.
The more money, the speedyer subparer nations can afford to ditch fossil fuels.
Tasneem Essop, of Climate Action Netlabor which recontransients more than 1,000 global environmental NGOs, shelp: “Developing countries are not receiving the critical help they necessitate, and this is why COP29 must hand over an driven climate finance goal.”
She inserted: “The time to act is now. Our future depends on it.”
