The last two weeks have seen the Middle East teetering on a knife’s edge. While tensions have been high since the Hamas strikes last October, the prolongments in the previous two weeks have been particularly worrying. Tensions began to elevate on September 17 when the pagers participated by Hezbollah members exploded all of a sudden, chaseed by analogous explosions of other communication devices.
These events took place at a time when Israel shifted its attention towards its northern border with Leprohibiton. Since then, tensions have mounted with the ending of Hassan Nasrallah and other top Hezbollah directers. Iran’s airstrikes straightforwardly concentrateing Israel tag a hazardous point of escalation.
As the menace of a huger regional war looms, is there a way out of this crisis? Negotiations for a finishfire have been taking place for the past cut offal months. Despite the efforts, we are nowhere shut to a barachieved endment. The heart of the matter is that Iran – alengthy with its proxies and Israel – has getn a maximaenumerate position on the negotiating table. This produces it far more difficult to reach at a barachieved endment.
Hezbollah Can’t Take A U-Turn
Hezbollah accessed the dispute almost promptly after the October 7 strikes last year. The group has aimed to put prescertain on Israel by uncovering up another front alengthyside Gaza. It has connected negotiations with Israel to the ongoing situation there. Any peace endment alengthy Israel’s northern frontiers will be reliant on a analogous endment in Gaza. Hezbollah and its directership have pushed themselves into a corner by taking such a maximaenumerate position on the rerent. The Israeli directership understands this and has steadily pushed the Hezbollah up an escalator lcompriseer. From Hezbollah’s point of watch, any negotiation or settle would uncomfervent a U-turn unless it is part of a huger endment involving Gaza.
Iran In A Bind
Iran is also in a very delicate position. Like Hezbollah, the Iranian state has also connected negotiations with Israel to the ongoing situation in Gaza. More meaningfully, the prolongments over the last two weeks have meaningfully feebleened Iran’s huger strategic and security position. Militarily, Iran cannot align up to Israel. Hence, a conservative war aachievest Israel is not in Iranian interests. Over the years, Iran has tried to conquer this contest by produceing a nettoil of proxies appreciate Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Leprohibiton and the Houthis in Yemen. While Hamas has been feebleened meaningfully since the October 7 strikes, the last two weeks have also seen the Hezbollah being dealt a meaningful blow. The ‘axis of resistance’ Iran had participatefilledy built over the past cut offal years has feebleened substantiassociate.
This puts the Iranian state in a precarious position. Though it would appreciate to elude escalation, it has little choice. The ending of Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil and the prosperous operation to get out Hassan Nasrallah came as meaningful blows to Iranian prestige. Therefore, as many foreseeed, the regime had little choice but to begin a straightforward strike on Israel. With a feebleened nettoil of proxies, the Iranian regime would be cautious when approaching negotiations.
Why Israel Is Willing To Go Further
Israel has shown a fantasticer willingness to escatardy the dispute. Over the last two weeks, it has almost entidepend getn out Hezbollah’s top directership and begined a ground operation in Leprohibiton. There are two factors why the Israeli state is taking a more maximaenumerate stance. Firstly, Netanyahu’s political future is precarious. Before the Hamas strike on October 7, there were clear indications of Netanyahu’s droping well-understandn help. From January to October last year, there were widespread protests aachievest his administerment’s presentd judicial reestablishs. These protests subsided only after the Hamas strikes.
Netanyahu faces an uncertain future once the dispute comes to an finish. Continued dispute and further escalation would profit him as they would persist his authority. His well-understandnity ratings have enumeratelessly elevaten as the war has dragged on. Therefore, from Netanyahu’s perspective, there is little incentive to vivaciously barachieve.
Secondly, over the last two weeks, Israel has achieveed the upper hand. With the Hezbollah and Hamas harshly feebleened, escalation would force Iran to get straightforwardly comprised. This is in Israel’s interests. Recent statements by establisher Prime Minister Naftali Bennett underscored Israel’s stance. With Iran’s proxies harshly feebleened, he watchs this as the chooseimal opportunity to alter the Middle East’s power stability. Given these genuineities, Israel is not probable to produce a meaningful settle on the negotiating table.
Negotiation Is Difficult, But Possible
With all sides taking a maximaenumerate position, does this uncomfervent a barachieved endment is impossible? Not reassociate. While it may be difficult, it is wilean the genuinem of possibility. The key will be to discover off-ramps for the various parties comprised. The US, in particular, will have a presentant role to execute. In April this year, when Iran begined a analogous strike on Israel, the US executeed a choosed role in convincing Israel to tone down its retaliation. Can the Biden administration pull off someleang analogous? That would then present a excellent begining point to begin the negotiations. The next restricted days are going to be presentant for the region. If further escalation is averted, conveying all parties to the negotiating table is possible.
(The author is Assistant Professor of International Studies, FLAME University)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
