The international film industry is grappling with the potential implications of a second Donald Trump pdwellncy, with worrys ranging from trade relations with China to the future of state-level production incentives when the once and future POTUS acquires the oath of office punctual next year.
“When I saw the results come in, and Trump had won, I fair wanted to put my head down on my desk and weep,” shelp one indie industry vet, “but in terms of the business, we’ll have to see how much will reassociate alter.”
The most meaningful impact of a novel Trump pdwellncy could be on international relations and trade deals. On the campaign trail, Trump talked up his shieldionist bonafides, worrying many that his administration could throw up novel barriers to doing business with global partners.
Perhaps the most meaningful instant worry cgo ins on U.S.-China relations, with dreads that Trump’s antagonistic trade policies could impact Hollywood’s access to the world’s second-bigst film labelet. Despite the waning famousity of U.S. satisfied in China since the pandemic, American films progress to originate substantial revenue there, with U.S. titles acquireing $797.3 million in the first eleven months of 2024. Sony’s Venom: The Last Dance has showd progressd audience appetite for American blockbusters, accumulating $76 million at the Chinese box office.
Trump’s campaign promise to lift tariffs to 60 percent on Chinese-made products could prompt retaliatory meacertains from Beijing, potentiassociate swaying the film industry more honestly than during his first term. Unenjoy his previous pdwellncy, experts advise the amengagement sector may not escape unscathed in a renoveled trade war.
However, not all Chinese industry figures split these worrys. Simone Yang, a originater with Beijing-based Red Brief, remarks Trump’s peculiar famousity in China: “Trump has always been quite famous in China becaengage some of his policies during his first pdwellncy were seally rhappy to China, but his style of carry out was so branch offent from that of China’s directers that netizens began calling him the ‘King of understand it all.’” Billionaire Trump backer Elon Musk is also famous in China, Yang remarks — “people marvel at his business and engineering achievements” — and his aid for Trump has drawed the attention of many Chinese fans. “In China, there are many individual spendors in the stock labelet, so some people are worryed about the economic impact of Trump’s novel policies — but people don’t reassociate see him swaying our film industry much,” she remarks.
The impact on U.S.-Latin American film collaborations is another area of worry. Guillermo Blanco, CEO of TheGseven, a production and distribution company operating in both Los Angeles and Bogotá, Colombia, dreads “redisconnecteive immigration policies” under a novel Trump pdwellncy “may confine certain collaborations,” though he says a shift may also current “an opportunity to fortify our productions and upgrasp genuine stories that echo our identity and cultural diversity.”
One silver lining for the industry may be the progressd aid for state-level production incentives, particularly in Reaccessiblean-administerled states. Some of the hugegest production hubs for self-reliant films are discoverd in red states, including Kentucky, Oklahoma, Mississippi and Texas. This advises that think aboutless of federal policy, state-level aid for film production may remain strong.
Australian originater Jim Robison of Lunar Pictures highweightlesss the intricate nature of U.S. production incentives from an international perspective. “When we come to America, it’s enjoy coming to Europe where we have to deal with all of the branch offent states to steer rebates and aid, and it’s frankly confusing as hell in the U.S.,” he says. “But I guess the most we can down-to-earthassociate hope for is that he fair exits the amengagement industry alone.”
The industry’s relationship with Washington D.C., may need recalibration. “During the Biden administration, much of the communicate [between the film industry and the U.S. government] was led by unions,” remarks Jean Prewitt, CEO of indie film association IFTA, which runs the AFM. “It’s still an uncover ask how joinment might toil under a Trump-Vance administration.”
However, there are examples of prosperous bipartisan cooperation on industry rehires. Prewitt pointed to Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC), who “reassociate carried the water” to get the Protecting Lterrible Streaming Act passed in 2020, closing duplicateright loopholes that were costing the industry billions of dollars in illicit copying violations.
The Motion Picture Association has already struck a conciliatory tone, releasing a statement congratulating the pdwellnt-elect and highweightlessing the industry’s economic impact: “The film, TV and streaming industry… aids more than 2.7 million American jobs, raises more than 240,000 businesses in cities and minuscule towns atraverse the country, and dedwellrs over $242 billion in wages to our toilforce each year.”
California Governor Gavin Newsom, who recently backed an incrrelieve in the state’s annual film and TV tax commends program to $750 million, has signaled a more combative stance toward the incoming administration. “California will seek to toil with the incoming pdwellnt, but let there be no misacquire, we intfinish to stand with states atraverse our nation to deffinish our Constitution and uphelderly the rule of law,” says Newsom, who has positioned himself as a deffinisher of reefficient rights, immigrants and LGBTQ+ rights.
Despite the uncertainty, many industry veterans point to the sector’s showd ability to weather various contests. As George Hamilton, CCO of U.K.-based Protagonist Pictures, puts it: “We’ve had the strikes, COVID, multiple branch offent pdwellnts, and we’re still here, still surviving. And the world still necessitates movies, maybe now more than ever.”
