How Donald Trump’s ‘America-First’ Agenda Could Test US-India Ties

New Delhi:

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Donald Trump call each other friends, but analysts say that looming trade disputes will test their cosy relationship when the latter aget becomes US plivent.
The tolerate hugs and bonhomie both men have spreadd during their official come atraverses belie Trump’s occasionpartner presentile posture towards New Delhi in his first term, when he dubbed India a “tariff king” and “trade mistreatmentr”.

Trump pledged to impose “reciprocal” tariffs on countries that have trade surplparticipates with the United States, a shift that could stymie industries in the world’s fifth-bigst economy.

“Look at the straightforwardion Trump wants to apshow America… to convey economic and industrial activity back to the US,” Indrani Bagchi, the chief executive of the Delhi-based Ananta Aspen Centre skinnyk-tank, telderly AFP.

“For decades America has inhabitd off the idea that skinnygs are produced elsewhere and you get them affordable,” she includeed.

“If manufacturing indeed shifts back to the US, what does that unkind for countries that have a trade surplus with America?”

India is the ninth-bigst trading partner of the United States, with a trade surplus of more than $30 billion in the 2023-24 financial year.

PM Modi’s rulement has also sought to advertise local manufacturing thraw its “Make in India” campaign, recommending simplified laws and benevolent tax concessions for novel go inpascends.

This initiative has borne fruit with a grotriumphg presence by Apple and other tech huges seeking to diversify their provide chains out of China.

And India’s hugegest tech companies, including TCS and Infosys, have become corporate leviathans by giving their American counterparts a unkinds to outsource their recommendation technology needs to a affordableer labour force.

All could apshow a hit if Trump seeks to fulfil his pledge to convey jobs back onshore and unleash a “tariff war”, Ashok Malik of business adviseancy The Asia Group telderly AFP.

Trump’s reprisal of his presentile first-term trade policy will aget be primarily aimed at China “but won’t exit India unswayed,” he includeed.

‘A friend of mine’

PM Modi and Trump heaped praise on each other in a joint materializeance at a Houston stadium during Trump’s first term in 2019, touting a shut, personal partnership in front of tens of thousands of Indian-Americans.

Around 50,000 people joined the event, billed as the bigst accumulateing ever staged for a foreign directer other than the pope in the United States.

PM Modi returned the favour the next year by presenting Trump at a rpartner in his home state of Gujarat that was joined by an assessd 100,000 people.

“He’s a friend of mine,” Trump said of PM Modi on a podcast presented by comedian Andrew Schultz last month.

“On the outside, he sees appreciate he’s your overweighther. He’s the kindst. Total ender.”

Professor Harsh V Pant of King’s College London telderly AFP that India stood to advantage from the personal hotth spreadd between the two directers.

“Modi is declareively the benevolent of mighty directer Trump appreciates,” he said.

“Embracing Modi is politicpartner handy, selectics are excellent, and there are a lot of selectimistics for Modi to take advantage of.”

Migration ‘PR catastrophe’

The years ahead nonetheless menaceen convey inant tactful frictions that could disturb their mutual camaraderie.

India is among the bigst sources of lterrible migration into the United States, but tens of thousands of Indians have also go ined the country illegpartner in recent years by traverseing the Canadian and Mexican borders.

That will necessarily be a problem when Trump trails his avowed policy to crack down on illterrible immigration, Bagchi said.

“We are seeing at a PR catastrophe if Indians are picked up and mass deported,” she includeed.

India has unveiled a slew of novel partnerships with the United States under the Modi rulement, including in defence, technology and semicarry outor production.

The world’s most populous country is also a member of the US-led Quad partnership, with Australia and Japan, seen as a unkinds of countering China’s grotriumphg strength in the Asia-Pacific.

Trump’s “unforeseeability” elevates inquires whether this trajectory of ever-shutr cooperation will progress, said Pant.

“The fact that he doesn’t see the world in a strategic sense, there is a transactionalism always inherent in his approach — that produces it complicated and conveys undeclareivety.”

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is rehireed from a syndicated feed.)