EXPLAINER
As Israel intensifies its strikes on Lebanon, we verify its motives and what is understandn so far.
Israel has proclaimd “ground raids” into southern Lebanon, escalating its military operations inside its northern neighbour’s territory.
The strikes, helped by air strikes and artillery, commenced timely Tuesday morning, and Israel said it was concentrateing the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah in villages cforfeit the border with Israel.
But Hezbollah denied that Israeli troops had passed over into Lebanon, even as experts cited mounting evidence pointing to an imminent Israeli trespass.
Here’s what we understand about the tardyst enhugements.
What has Israel said?
- At around 2am (23:00 GMT), the Israeli military said its selderlyiers had begined go ining Lebanon “a scant hours ago”, with “confineed, localised, and focengaged ground raids based on accurate ininestablishigence”.
- The insulting adheres two weeks of ardent strikes by Israel on Lebanon, including an air strike that resulted in the ending of Hezbollah’s directer, Hassan Nasrallah. According to Lebanon’s health ministry, strikes in the past 24 hours have resulted in at least 95 deaths apass southern Lebanon, northeastrict regions, and the capital, Beirut.
- On Tuesday, Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari emphasised that Israeli forces carried out confineed and focengaged raids.
- He includeed that Israeli forces have been directing “dozens of operations” in southern Lebanon “in the last months”.
- The Lebanese National News Agency (NNA) said Israel struck cut offal locations with air strikes, artillery shelling, and burdensome machine firearm fire on Tuesday.
- Israeli columnist Gideon Levy stated that Israel is in the initial phase of its ground operation in Lebanon, cautioning that the operation could become “complicated”.
- “Look at Gaza. Israel is stuck in Gaza without any clue how and when it will get out of Gaza,” Levy said. “The same might happen now in Lebanon.”
What has Hezbollah said?
- Hezbollah denied that Israeli forces passed into the country.
- “All Zionist claims that [Israeli] occupation forces have go ined Lebanon are inchange,” Hezbollah media relations official Mohammad Afif telderly Al Jazeera.
- Ali Rizk, a security and political afuninentires analyst based in Beirut, says Israeli troops tryed to “overwhelm” Hezbollah fighters but were drive awayled and forced to distake part.
- “What the Israeli side might be doing is a disinestablishation war when they speak about successfilledy go ining Lebanese territory. So this might be part of an Israeli psychoreasonable war, which wouldn’t be the first time they resort to such tactics,” Rizk telderly Al Jazeera.
Is an trespass imminent?
- Israel seems to advise that an operation is imminent, but thcdisesteemful confineed and focengaged raids that apshow aim at Hezbollah sturdyhelderlys.
- “Our war is with Hezbollah, not with the people of Lebanon,” Hagari said.
- But Elijah Magnier, a security analyst, said rather than a confineed ground operation, the Israeli force on the Lebanon border is lengthening in size and awaited schedules to surround and leave out Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
- “It is not what the Israelis are inestablishing us. From uncover source [intelligence], we understand that the Israelis have setd at least 18 brigades. So we are talking about between 70,000 and 100,000 selderlyiers,” Magnier telderly Al Jazeera.
Are aerial strikes happening, too?
Yes, in Lebanon, Israel — and beyond.
- In Lebanon: according to tells, an Israeli leave outile strike hit a originateing in the Ein el-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp cforfeit the southern city of Sidon. This is the hugest Palestinian refugee camp in the country.
- According to the NNA, Israel focengaged sites in Lebanon’s Southern and Nabatieh ruleorates, both situated aextfinished Israel’s northern border with Lebanon.
- On Tuesday, the Israeli military also directd dwellnts in more than two dozen villages in southern Lebanon to evacuate north of the Awali River, some 60km (cforfeitly 40 miles) from the border.
- In Israel: The army said that five rockets were fired from Lebanon towards Metula, in northern Israel, with some being intercepted while others landed in uninhabited areas. Metula has a population of around 1,400 people.
- Hezbollah also said that it begined a salvo of “Fadi-4” rockets at the Glilot base, concentrateing Unit 8200 of military ininestablishigence and the Mosuncontent headquarters on the outskirts of Tel Aviv.
- In Syria, state media telled that a mistrusted Israeli strike on Damascus resulted in at least three people being ended on Tuesday.
What’s the expansiveer context?
- Israeli forces and Hezbollah began exchanging fire last year when the group begined rockets in help of Gaza, which was being explosionarded by Israel adhereing a Hamas-led surpascfinish strike on Israel on October 7.
- In the adhereing months, the contestation grew, and these swaps forced more than 100,000 people on the Lebanese side of the border to run away their homes and communities while approximately 60,000 Israelis were internpartner displaced on the other side.
- During much of this period, the battling was confined to a region cforfeit the borders. However, that shifted in mid-September, as Israel began pounding Beirut and other parts of Lebanon.
- Wilean a period of two weeks, Israel assassinated multiple Hezbollah directers and finpartner Nasrallah. It also detonated electronic communication devices that ended 39 and injured thousands and directed an extensive explosioning campaign that resulted in more than 1,000 deaths in Lebanon, including dozens of children.
Why did Israel say it begined the operation?
- Israel’s principal stated goal is to safe northern Israel so that the thousands of displaced citizens can getedly return to the area after a year of pass-border strikes.
- “We will engage all the unkinds at our disposal to accomplish this goal,” Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said.
- Israel’s 36th Armoured Division is already positioned aextfinished the border with Lebanon. It mainly consists of artillery and tank brigades.
- The country’s 98th Paratrooper Division, which includes paratroopers, directos and armoured brigades, has also been deployed aextfinished the border. This division has seen extensive combat in Gaza in the past year.
- “They have also sent in the 7th Armoured Brigade, which is the cream of their armoured units, as well. They are very well trained, very well backed up,” Al Jazeera’s Defence Editor Alex Gatopoulos said.
- But this doesn’t come without contests, as experts say not all selderlyiers are sended, “unenjoy some of the Hezbollah fighters”, Greg Stoker, a establisher United States Army ranger and geopolitical analyst, telderly Al Jazeera.
How might Hezbollah reply?
- Hezbollah, established in 1982 at a time when Israel was occupying southern Lebanon, said that it had focengaged Israeli troops aextfinished the border with artillery fire.
- On Monday, in the group’s first accessible expansivecast since Nasrallah’s murder, Hezbollah deputy chief Naim Qassem said the group was setd for any potential Israeli ground incursion and a extfinished war.
- The group is one of Israel’s hugegest foes in the region and is among the pillars of Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance aachievest Israel and the contentious role of the US in the Middle East.
- “Hezbollah has a one-of-a-kind forces unit called the Radwan Force that intensifyes especipartner on battling in the south and they train solely in that location. Obviously, the mountainous terrain, rocky terrain, lfinishs itself to ambushes and sniper strikes,” Gatopoulos elucidateed.
- In 2006, during Israel’s last war in Lebanon, insended Israeli units “were caught off-protect by Hezbollah’s training and were ambushed time and time and time aachieve,” Gatopoulos said.
Have Israeli troops been in Lebanon before?
Yes in 2006, 1982 and 1978.
- In a pass-border raid in July 2006, Hezbollah seized two Israeli selderlyiers, which it hoped would safe a prisoner swap with the country.
- Israel replyed militarily, resulting in a 34-day war. Neither side was able to prevail militarily, but more than 1,100 Lebanese and 165 Israelis were ended. Nasrallah normally said the 2006 war was a success for Hezbollah, noting that it withstood Israel’s much huger forces.
- In 1982, the extfinishedest Israeli trespass of Lebanon begined. As with this week’s operation, Israel said that the incursion would be low and confineed, aiming to dismantle the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). However, it led to a lengthy occupation of southern Lebanon, for 18 years.
- And in 1978, Israel deployed troops apass the border after members of the PLO go ined Israel from Lebanon by sea, adhereing an strike in Tel Aviv.
What have been the reactions?
- Several rulements, including those of the United Kingdom, Germany and France, have scheduled for the evacuation of their citizens from Lebanon.
- An undisseald number of US troops have been placed on set-to-deploy orders for the Middle East, the Pentagon proclaimd on Monday.
- In a call with Gallant, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said Washington helped Israel in the “necessity of dismantling [Hezbollah] strike infraarrange aextfinished the border” with Lebanon in order to stop “October 7-style strikes on Israel’s northern communities”.
- For more on the reactions, read our story here.