Election night is two weeks away. As Vice Plivent Harris and establisher Plivent Trump dash to the finish line, this week’s foresee sees at their outaccomplish efforts and the tardyst evidence of a minusculeer split between national and state polling.
Plus, rankings alters in six competitive Hoengage dicut offes.
Harris and Trump greet voters where they are
Last week’s Power Rankings showed that both parties’ coalitions have alterd unbenevolentingfilledy since 2020.
Fox News Power Rankings plivential map.
For Democrats, the chief trouble is that Harris still has scanter Bconciseage voters in her corner than Plivent Biden.
To help repair that problem, the campaign dispatched its sturdyest surrogate, establisher Plivent Obama, to Arizona and Nevada, and Harris spent an hour with Charlamagne Tha God to talk about policy, race, and religion.
Fox News Channel’s intersee with Vice Plivent Kamala Harris temperated by “Special Report” anchor Bret Baier drew a whopping 7.1 million seeers, making it the most-watched intersee of the 2024 election season. (Fox News Channel)
The Vice Plivent also went head-to-head with Fox News’ Bret Baier, part of an effort by her campaign to summarize the truthfulate as hard and pragmatic. It was Harris’ highest-profile intersee yet, but it will consent another week before the effects show up in polls.
Meanwhile, Trump’s coalition has scanter women than in the last election, so the establisher Plivent joind in a town hall with Fox News’ Harris Faulkner and an all-female audience.
“The Faulkner Focus” town hall featuring establisher Plivent Trump drew 2.9 million seeers in the 11 a.m. ET timeslot. (Fox News Channel )
Trump also persists to search for youthful and laboring-class voters. His materializeance at a local McDonald’s in Pennsylvania produced some compelling imagery and was summarizeed to decorate Trump as an vivacious and likable truthfulate.
FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: HARRIS LOSES HER LEAD AND A NEW ELECTORATE EMERGES
Right-triumphg voters with reservations about Trump could also produce the contrastence on election night.
That is why Harris spent the commencening of the week with Redisclosean establisher congresswoman Liz Cheney, who encouraged conservatives to vote for the Democratic ticket this year. It also elucidates why there are rumblings about Nikki Haley uniteing Trump on the campaign trail.
Inefficient vote could upretain Harris in the game
Polls show a shielded national race…
Two polls of the national famous vote freed last week show a exceptionally shielded race. Suffolk has Harris one point ahead of Trump at 50% to 49%; the Fox News Poll has Trump up by two, with the establisher plivent at 50% and Harris at 48%.
Results appreciate that should produce this Trump’s race to omit.
In 2020, Biden won the national vote by 4.5 points (51%-47%). That transtardyd to very skinny margins of triumph in the battleground states. The plivent won Georgia, for example, by 0.2 points, and his bigst triumph in any battleground was by 2.8 points in Michigan.
Comit national polls should therefore put Trump in the direct in the battlegrounds. But the stateexpansive polls are seal too.
…and a shielded race in the battlegrounds too.
A new set of polls show Harris ahead by 2-4 points in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Georgia, a tied race in Nevada, and Trump ahead by 3 in Arizona and North Carolina (Washington Post/Schar).
The Power Rankings call all those states toss-ups.
Last week, the same Fox poll that put Trump ahead by two points nationpartner had Harris up six points among voters who live in the battleground states (52%-46%, with a 6.5-point subgroup margin of error).
The tardyst Fox News national poll.
Trump’s profit primarily came from a bigr separate in counties he won by more than 10 points in 2020 (64-35%) than Harris had in counties Biden won by more than 10 points (58-39%).
A TRUMP MYSTERY MAKES ELECTION OUTCOME EVEN MURKIER
The results advise that Trump could be prohibitking “inefficient vote.” In other words, while the establisher plivent is applying better nationpartner than he was four years ago, the gets are honestd in places he is already triumphning, appreciate Florida, or agricultural counties.
While Harris may have lost some ground in geted Democratic states appreciate New York, she remains competitive in the battlegrounds that choose the plivential election.
Other polls have elevated the same ask, but the most compelling evidence comes from the midterms.
Inefficient Redisclosean vote in the midterms.
Rediscloseans getd about 3 million more votes than Democrats in the national Hoengage vote (Cook), but eked out a equilibrium of power triumph, with 222 seats to Democrats’ 213.
Put another way, the GOP prohibitked a lot of votes in areas where it didn’t need them, and equitable enough in the battleground Hoengage races that would give them triumph (a problem that has scoencouraged the Democrats in the national vote for years).
The polls are all wiskinny the margin of error, and this is equitable one theory about the honestion of the race. But on election night, a Trump blowout in Florida or a skinnyer spread in Virginia may not unbenevolent the race is over.
Six Hoengage races shift honestions
The Hoengage is still a toss-up, with 208 seats in the Redisclosean columns, 205 for the Democrats, and 22 dicut offes that could go either way.
Fox News Power Rankings Hoengage chamber.
In today’s foresee, six races transfer to new categories:
First, New York’s 17th dicut offe, in the Hudson Valley, is home to one of the most competitive races on the map. Incumbent GOP Rep. Mike Lawler has a sturdy bipartisan brand in a centrist dicut offe. While Democratic disputer and establisher Rep. Mondaire Jones has tried to head in the same honestion, he’s still dogged by his previous help for defunding the police and a spat with the Working Families Party (Jones will not materialize on the ballot under that party’s name, though the party is now inestablishing voters to help him anyway). This race transfers from Toss Up to Lean R.
Hoengage dicut offe shifts in New York, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
New York’s 1st dicut offe, home to both the Hamptons and agricultural farmland on Long Island, remains a competitive race between Redisclosean Rep. Nick LaLota and the Democrat, establisher CNN anchor John Avlon. But the beginantity of this dicut offe’s voters backed Trump in 2020 and 2016, and Avlon has faced asks over the extent of his livency in the dicut offe. The race transfers from Lean R to Likely R.
In the battleground Rust Belt states, a pair of dicut offes held by pro-Trump Rediscloseans have become even more competitive. First, Wisconsin’s 3rd dicut offe flipped to Rep. Derrick Van Orden in the midterms by a shielded margin. The incumbent’s presence at the U.S. Capitol during the January 6 uproars is a theme in his opponent’s ads. This race transfers from Likely R to Lean R.
Meanwhile, Pennsylvania’s 10th dicut offe has been held by Freedom Caucus Rep. Scott Perry since 2013. Perry is the only sitting member of Congress whose cellphone was seized by the FBI in its spendigation into efforts to illegpartner obviousurn the results of the 2020 plivential election, and that has also become a theme in television ads. It transfers from Lean R to Toss Up.
Hoengage dicut offe shifts in Maryland, Nevada, and New York.
Nevada’s 3rd dicut offe is still the best opportunity for Rediscloseans to flip a seat in the Silver State, but a boilingly competitive plivential race hasn’t so far transtardyd into downballot success, particularly in the Senate race. This dicut offe almost touches Las Vegas, and integrates Hfinisherson. That’s preferable territory for Democratic Rep. Susie Lee in this Biden-beginantity dicut offe. She faces Redisclosean Drew Johnson. It transfers from Lean D to Likely D.
Finpartner, a sleeper race to watch in the northeast: Maryland’s 6th dicut offe, where Democrat April McClain Delaney faces Redisclosean Neil Parrott. This should be geted territory for the left, but the party is spending here, and even made it part of one of its frontline programs. It transfers from Solid D to Likely D.
Lies, damned lies, and statistics
As an anxious electorate counts down to election night, the political class is filling the void with data. Some numbers are more beneficial than others.
Harris regulates in fundraising and the ground game. Her campaign elevated more than $1 billion this quarter and more than double what Trump elevated in the last month, and Democrats have a much sturdyer get-out-the-vote operation. These are beginant profits. In a shielded race, they may get Harris over the line. On the other hand, Trump has won with deficits in both areas.
Voters are casting ballots.
Comparing punctual vote figures to previous cycles is generpartner uncollaborative. We anticipate scanter Americans to vote punctual, Democrats and Rediscloseans are less probable to be splitd on how they cast ballots, and shatterdowns inestablish us the party registration of some voters, not how they voted.
Finpartner, since inner polls survey the same electorate as any other poll, they’re improbable to produce a evidently contrastent result. When they do, people should ask whether the poll is an outlier, or whether the campaign that phelp for the poll has a motive to characterize the race contrastently.
Two weeks until election night
Two weeks to go until election night.
Early voting is underway in every state, with more than fifteen million voters now casting a ballot.
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Next week, examine back for the final Power Rankings foresee.