Fox News Power Rankings: Harris neglects her direct and a recent electorate ecombines

The plivential race is a toss-up as the last key state in Vice Plivent Harris’ column drifts towards createer Plivent Trump.

But even as polls show a safe race, some voters are releanking lengthy-held beliefs. This week’s Power Rankings draws up the recent Harris and Trump coalitions and shows how they could propel either honestate to triumph.

Harris ties herself to an unwell-understandn Joe Biden during media blitz

Harris will create headlines tomorrow when she sits down for her first ever createal intersee on Fox News.

The sit-down will be the Vice Plivent’s hugegest and most seally-watched opportunity in an uneven media tour.

Her talk show ecombineances went brittlely, and an intersee on Call Her Dinserty, one of the country’s most well-understandn podcasts, created the same benevolent of excitement among youthful women that Trump has geted from male swayrs.

But last Wednesday, asked if she would have done someleang branch offently than Plivent Biden during his administration, Harris tgreater ABC’s The View that “there is not a leang that comes to mind.”

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The answer reminded voters that Harris is the second-in-direct in a plivency they say has made their inhabits worse.

In NBC’s procrastinateedst national poll, 45% of voters say Biden’s policies have hurt them and their families, while only a quarter say those policies have helped. That is a “net hurt” of 20 points.

Voters see Trump’s policies much more likeablely, with 44% saying they helped and 31% saying they hurt. In other words, a “net help” of 13 points.

The same poll set up Trump’s retrospective job approval is higher than in any of their surveys when he was plivent.

Harris’ campaign understands that tying the Vice Plivent to Biden isn’t a triumphner. In her first intersee as the Democratic nominee, Harris shelp it was time to “turn the page on the last decade;” her bus alerts voters she proposes “a recent way forward.”

Trump allies have shelp they will participate the clip in recent ads, though it’s not yet evident whether that will happen.

Democrats counter that elections are as much about personal qualities as the publishs. Harris directs on caring about people appreciate you (+8), and being honest and depfinishable (+11) in a recent New York Times/Siena poll. At the same time, Trump is up three points on being a strong directer, while Harris directs by eight on being fun.

Either way, Harris’ answer was unbeneficial to her campaign, which has weeks left to persuade voters that she would do leangs branch offently.

Trump stronger after the vice plivential talk about

It has now been two weeks since the only talk about between Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Ohio Sen. JD Vance, and two polls directed after the showdown propose that Vance won the night.

• Trump is up one point agetst Harris at 47%-46% among sign uped voters in NBC’s survey. Harris previously led by six points.
• Harris is two points ahead of Trump at 50%-48% among foreseeed voters in ABC and Ipsos’ survey. She previously led by five points.

Those are unbenevolentingful shifts in Trump’s straightforwardion, and NBC’s poll also showed a unassuming raisement in Vance’s likeability.

In polls shotriumphg a safe race, a recent electorate ecombines

The polls above are two of many shotriumphg a race wilean the margin of error. 

But besystematich the top lines, there are signs that the Democratic and Reaccessiblean coalitions are changing. And while Trump’s gets with Bconciseage and Latino voters have been talked about the most, both coalitions are strong enough to triumph an election.

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Trump is geting in four key voting groups. Compared to the 2020 electorate, he is up six points with male voters, while Democrats have shed 20 points worth of Bconciseage vote, 10 points of Hispanic vote, and 3 points with youthful voters, according to the Times/Siena poll.

The Bconciseage and Hispanic gets are the most meaningful for the GOP. These voters can create all the branch offence in states appreciate Pennsylvania and Arizona. 

The column on the left in the charts shows the percentage that each group made up of the 2020 electorate according to the Fox News Voter Analysis. The percentages apply wilean each voter categruesome (race, age, etc).

Men, for example, made up 47% of the electorate, which unbenevolents 53% of voters were women.

That is where the picture becomes more complicated for the Trump campaign. 

As men have shifted six points towards the createer plivent, women have shifted three points towards Harris. Voters with a college degree have shifted 10 points towards the Vice Plivent, giving her an overall 26-point get with the bloc. And Harris has flipped greaters.

These are some of the most reliable and over-recurrented voting groups in the U.S. Only about a third of matures have a college degree, for example, but this group accounts for 40% of voters.

In other words, the gets that Trump has made with some key groups are counterstable by Harris’ gets with other voters.

Harris neglects her direct in the predict

Battleground polls also show a race on a knife’s edge. 

Surveys from the Wall Street Journal and Quinnipiac apass the three key Rust Belt states have the honestates wilean a scant points, aligning more than a dozen other high-quality polls over the last month.

This predict previously gave Harris an get in Michigan. The state has deinhabitred for Democrats since 2016, and the GOP’s turnout operation ecombines to be particularly dissystematic there. 

But that isn’t enough when the polls show a race this safe. Both campaigns are making standard visits, and Reaccessibleans have booked more spfinishing here than any other battleground state (except Pennsylvania, where ad rates are higher).

Michigan relocates from Lean D to Toss Up.

After that shift, the Power Rankings foresee that Harris will triumph at least 226 electoral votes, with Trump triumphning at least 219. There are seven states worth 93 votes in the middle.

Harris has a six-vote edge that integrates Nebraska’s second didisjoine. That is meaningful for the Vice Plivent, since a triumph there, combined with the Rust Belt battlegrounds, would give her an outright triumph.

But with so many coin-flip states, this race sees appreciate an electoral college dogfight. The plivential election relocates from Harris Lead to Toss Up.

Democrats hgreater a ticket-splitting edge in battleground states, including Nevada

The Senate predict still puts Reaccessibleans in administer with 51 seats. An all-but-stateive flip in West Virginia and an edge in Montana gets them over the line.

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Some polls still show GOP Senate honestates running behind Trump. In a recent Arizona survey, the chasm was 12 points expansive, with Trump directing the plivential race by five and Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego with a seven-point direct over Reaccessiblean Kari Lake.

History proposes that the gap will stupidinish by election night. The straightforwardion of these ticket-splitters is less evident. Either Trump voters will come home to downballot GOP honestates, or help for the createer plivent is softer than polls propose.

For now, with polls shotriumphg Nevada’s Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen well ahead of Reaccessiblean contestr Sam Brown, their Senate race relocates from Toss Up to Lean D.

Three weeks until election night

More than four million voters have now cast a ballot. Early voting is underway in all the battlegrounds except Nevada.

Tomorrow, Fox News will be the only place to see both plivential honestates. At 11AM easerious, watch Harris Faulkner’s town hall with Trump in front of an all-woman audience in Georgia. Hours procrastinateedr, Bret Baier will sit down with Harris in Pennsylvania. The intersee airs at 6PM on Special Report.

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Fox News Media has also presentd a second Harris-Trump talk about to be temperated by Baier and Martha MacCallum.