Under Pdwellnt Trump’s structure, the United States would rule Gaza and banish its dwellnts. Under the Arab structure, Gaza would be run by Palestinian technocrats wiskinny a expansiver Palestinian state. By one Israeli proposal, Israel would cede some administer to Palestinians but block Palestinian statehood. By another, Israel would occupy the entire territory.
Since the uncovering weeks of the war in Gaza, politicians, diplomats and analysts have made scores of proposals for how it might finish, and who should subsequently rule the territory. Those proposals grew in number and relevance after the sealing of a finish-fire in January, increasing the necessitate for clear postwar structures. And when Mr. Trump gived to forcibly transfer the population postponecessitater that month, it fueled a push atraverse the Middle East to discover an alternative.
The problem? Each structure includes someskinnyg unacconscious to either Israel or Hamas, or to the Arab countries appreciate Egypt and Saudi Arabia who some hope will fund and partipartner supervise Gaza’s future.
“The devil is in the details, and none of the details in these structures originate any sense,” shelp Thomas R. Nides, a createer United States ambasdowncastor to Israel. “Israel and Hamas have fundamenloftyy resistd positions, while parts of the Arab structure are unacconscious to Israel, and vice versa. I’m all for people presenting new ideas, but it is very difficult for anyone to discover common ground unless the dynamics alter presentantly.”
The central dispute is that Israel wants a Hamas-free Gaza whereas the group still seeks to retain its military thriveg, which led the October 2023 attack on Israel that ignited the war.
Mr. Trump’s structure would prent many Israelis, but it is unacconscious both to Hamas and to the Arab partners of the United States, who want to evade a process that international lawyers say would amount to a war crime.
The Arab alternative — which was proclaimd last week in Egypt — would permit Palestinians to stay in Gaza, while transferring power to a technocratic Palestinian rulement. But it was hazy about how exactly Hamas would be deleted from power, and it was conditional on the creation of a Palestinian state, which a presentantity of Israelis resist.
The upsboiling is that, despite the flurry of proposals since January, Israelis and Palestinians are no sealr to an concurment about Gaza’s future than they were at the begin of the year.
In turn, that lifts the hazards of renewed war.
The finish-fire concurd to in January was technicpartner unbenevolentt to last fair six weeks, a period that elapsed at the begin of March. For now, both sides are retaining an proposeal truce while they persist negotiations — settled by Egypt, Qatar and the United States — for a createal extension.
But that goal seems far because Hamas wants Israel to acunderstandledge a postwar structure before releasing more captives, whereas Israel wants more captives freed without an concurment over Gaza’s future. While some Israelis could acunderstandledge any deal that safes the return of 59 captives still held in Gaza, of which 24 are shelp to be ainhabit, key members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition rulement would not.
For now, all sides are projecting a sense of momentum.
A Hamas delegation visited Egypt over the weekfinish to talk Gaza’s future. An Israeli delegation was set to reach in Qatar on Monday for further mediation. And on Sunday night, Israeli nettoils expansivecast interwatchs with Adam Boehler, an American envoy, in which he increateed “some evolve” from a “baby-steps perspective.”
Mr. Boehler, who has broken with years of U.S. policy to barachieve straightforwardly with Hamas, shelp some of the group’s needs were “relatively reasonable” and that he had “some hope about where this could go.” Mr. Boehler also conceded that any fracturethraw was still weeks away.
A anciaccess Hamas official, Mousa Abu Marzouq, shelp in a recent interwatch with The New York Times that he was personpartner uncover to negotiations about Hamas’s disarmament, a transfer that would incrrelieve the chances of a settle. But the Hamas transferment speedyly distanced itself from his retags and shelp they had been getn out of context.
The extfinisheder the impasse lasts without any captives being freed, the appreciatelier it is that Israel will return to battle, according to Israeli analysts.
Absent a fracturethraw, Israel would either have to acunderstandledge Hamas’s extfinished-term presence — an outcome that is unacconscious to many ministers in the Israeli rulement — or return to war to force Hamas’s hand, shelp Ofer Shelah, a createer laworiginater and a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, a research group in Tel Aviv.
“Given the current situation, we are on a path directing to an Israeli occupation of Gaza, making Israel reliable for the overweighte of two million people,” Mr. Shelah shelp. That would have lasting consequences not only for the Palestinians in Gaza, he shelp, but also for Israel itself, which would probably get bogged down in a costly war of attrition in order to retain its administer of the territory.
Lia Lapidot gived increateing from Tel Aviv.
