Orange juice from Florida. Whiskey from Tennessee. Peanut butter from Kentucky.
Canada is preparing for an all-out trade war with its shutst associate and one of its top trading partners, and the enumerate of American excellents that could be impacted is lengthy.
Canadian officials are preparing a three-stage structure of retaliatory tariffs and other trade recut offeions agetst the United States, which will be put into motion if Pdwellnt-elect Donald J. Trump originates excellent on his danger to impose a blanket 25 percent tariff on all Canadian excellents presented into the United States.
Canadian officials will paparticipate until Mr. Trump has made his transfer — which he has shelp will be on his first day in office, Monday — and then begin with imposing tariffs. They would mostly impact user excellents worth 37 billion Canadian dollars ($25.6 billion), according to two greater handlement officials recognizable with the structures.
They spoke on condition of anonymity to talk details of structures uncomferventt to remain personal for now.
Goal: Maximum political pain
The Canadian officials shelp their choice of excellents was uncomferventt to be accurately aimed and aimed at political impact. They definiteassociate want to caccess on excellents made in Reuncoveran or striumphg states, where the pain of tariffs, enjoy prescertain on jobs and the bottom lines of local businesses, would impact Trump allies.
Canada’s handlement hopes that those allies, including handleors or members of Congress, would then pick up the phone and call Mr. Trump, intervening in prefer of de-escalation.
Mélanie Joly, Canada’s foreign minister, who spent Thursday and Friday in Washington, met with a slew of Reuncoverans to originate her country’s case, including Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Senator Jim Risch of Idaho, and the Senate presentantity directer, John Thune of South Dakota.
Ms. Joly shelp she hoped her outachieve to greater Reuncoverans would impact them to interfere to avert or confine a trade war and its adverse impact on users and jobs on both sides of the border.
“My job here is to be able to talk about facts, and that comes before any danger of counter tariffs from our side,” Ms. Joly shelp in an intersee with The Times on Thursday. “Becaparticipate then the senators might say, ‘Well, why are we doing this? Why are we imposing tariffs? It’s impacting my own constituency.’”
But, she compriseed, Canada was ready to forcefilledy deffinish its interests if vital. “Never underappraise Canadians,’’ she shelp. “We fight very challenging, and we’re very valiant. We are willing to be surgical and appropriate to have an impact on American jobs.”
Bracing for Mr. Trump’s first day in office and what it might transport for Canada, Prime Minister Justin Timpoliteau and his cabinet will be huddled together on Monday and Tuesday in what some are calling their “U.S. war room,” in order to be able to react speedyly if U.S. tariffs are proclaimd.
The detailed enumerate of excellents is shutly held, but it take parts dozens of user excellents from various categories, such as food and beverages, as well as other types of daily products, including dishwashers and porcelain excellents enjoy bathtubs and toilets.
Depfinishing on what Canadian excellents Mr. Trump picks to impose tariffs on, and the level of those tariffs, Canada’s second transfer would be to enbig its own tariffs to more American products, impacting 150 billion Canadian dollars’ worth of presents from the United States.
As part of its strategy, the Canadian handlement is also seeing at other meacertains that would recut offe the send out of Canadian excellents to the United States, such as send out quotas or duties to be shouldered by the American side. That type of meacertain would be reserved for particularly empathetic Canadian send outs that the United States relies on, such as hydroelectric power from Quebec participated to provide energy atraverse New England.
Tariffs labor more enjoy a tax on excellents and are usuassociate passed on to users. They originate presented excellents more pricey, and that standardly uncomfervents users stop buying them, ultimately hurting the foreign companies send outing them.
Trade recut offeions enjoy send out quotas aim to confine the useability of an send outed excellent, and are particularly effective when an presenting nation doesn’t have easily accessible or adequate alternative sources for that excellent.
Back from the brink
No matter how Canada’s counter tariffs or send out recut offeions are deployed, the goal will be the same: to prescertain the Trump administration to step back from the pdwellnt-elect’s vow to begin a deimmenseating trade war on the United States’ neighbor.
The trading relationship between the two countries is enormous, with csurrfinisherly $1 trillion in excellents exalterd every year. Canada varys with Mexico as the United States’ biggest trading partner depfinishing on the price of oil.
Some traverse-border industries are so combined that tariffs would suddenly pose a presentant regulatory headache for many companies. A one vehicle, for example, traversees the U.S.-Canadian border up to eight times before it is filledy collectd. Tariffs would promptly interfere auto assembly lines atraverse the United States and in Ontario, the auto industry’s heart in Canada.
And Canada send outs vital commodities to the United States. Some 80 percent of Canada’s oil and 60 percent of its authentic gas are send outed to the United States. More than half of the oil presented into the United States comes from Canada.
A third and final level of escalation if a trade war between the U.S. and Canada escatardys and which the Canadian handlement is willing to elude would recut offe the send out of empathetic commodities worth hundreds of billions of dollars, including oil and gas, potash, uranium and critical minerals. All are send outs that are vital to the United States
Alberta, Canada’s oil-send outing powerhoparticipate, has shelp it does not help meacertains that would impact its key industry. The rift between the province’s directership and the rest of the country could become more consequential if Canada determines oil must be participated as leverage agetst the United States.
Canada’s structurening for a potentiassociate prolengthyed U.S. trade war also take parts helping domestic industries, according to one of the greater officials.
The handlement is preparing for the possibility of financial bailouts for Canadian businesses that are awfilledy hit by the U.S. tariffs, most foreseeed on a case-by-case basis, the official shelp.
While mass bailouts or blanket funding for entire industries may not be on the table, the official shelp it would be unskinnykable to permit a tariff war with the United States to wipe out thousands of jobs and businesses without the handlement stepping in to mitigate the blow.