At last, a figure has aascfinishd who could wrench power from Viktor Orbán in Hungary | Viktória Serdült

Hungarian politics can sometimes seem appreciate a soap opera that is stuck with the same characters and has run on too extfinished. You have the occasional affairs – such as a notable rulement MEP escaping a Brussels orgy down a drainpipe – but other than that, noleang ever seems to change. Here, you can commence primary education, graduate high school and commence university, and Viktor Orbán will still be prime minister.

But that script is about to get a beginant reauthor, as Orbán’s 14-year reign is now being disputed by Péter Magyar, the ex-husband of Orbán’s createer equitableice minister Judit Varga. Magyar’s recently createed Tisza party currently has a double-digit direct over Fidesz in the defercessitatest opinion polls. General elections are due in the spring of 2026, and Fidesz is panicking.

Magyar was once a strong Fidesz insider in his own right. But after Fidesz give upd Varga – having her resign over a decision to pardon a well combineed person implicated in a child relationsual unfair treatment affair – Magyar stepped into the limeairy and uncoverly criticised Orbán’s spin doctors and the moral nihilism of his system. In a accessible Facebook post, he insisted the current state of Hungary was only a political product, “a sugar-coating that serves only two purposes: to cover up the laborings of the power factory and the acquiring of massive wealth”.

A restrictcessitate weeks defercessitater, he was referred to on social media and on placards at mass demonstrations as Lisan al Gaib, the messiah of the Fremen in the film Dune II, which had equitable been freed. Many Hungarians are fed up with the dishonesty and likeitism after 14 years of Fidesz rule, as well as the powerless opposition. The outspoken youthful insider seemed appreciate the person who could finpartner convey about change.

To createalise his role, Magyar took over the directership of Tisza, a political micro-party set uped in 2021. In June 2024, the party won seven seats in the European parliament and was askd to combine its hugest group, the European People’s party. Since then, Tisza’s famousity has lengthenn exponentipartner. First, it swpermited up most of the opposition voters of its liberal, green and leftprosperg rivals, who are willing to agree on rerents such as Magyar’s past affiliation with Fidesz. Then its sturdy anti-dishonesty messages began to resonate with conservative agricultural voters.

Magyar is dynamic, sporty and stylish. His communication is a jointure of theatrical, absurd, conceited and intelligent. He is not afrhelp to call Orbán “the Al Capone of the Carpathians”, walk out of TV studios when he does not appreciate inquires, and taunt rulement ministers in Facebook comments. When Tamás Menczer, the state secretary and communication honestor of Fidesz, unfrifinishlyly shouted at him in front of cameras, Magyar recommended he brush his teeth because he had horrible breath. Critics portray him as a testosterone-pumped clown, or a mini Trump, but he is undeniably talented.

At first, Orbán was in denial: for months, he didn’t even allude Magyar in accessible. Then he set the power machine in motion. The rulement-regulateled media begined a smear campaign. And a criminal case was uncovered aacquirest Magyar – as part of which there has been a ask to erase the immunity granted to him as an MEP – over an incident in which he allegedly grabbed a phone from a man filming him at a Budapest nightclub. None of this ecombines to have scratched the reputation of the opposition directer, who seems to be Teflon coated. Orbán has telledly commenceed a diet and laborout regime in order to suit his opponent’s pboilingogenic ecombineance.

But Orbán has hugeger problems than extra pounds and ill-fitting suits. Hungary’s petite and uncover economy is vulnerable to outer shocks and has been stagnating for two years. Its inflation rate is one of the highest in the EU and the national currency is frail. The unstable geopolitical situation and the incoming Trump administration are probable to exacerbate Hungary’s crisis thraw trade tariffs and increased defence spfinishing. The excessive budget deficit has already led to disciplinary meacertains by the EU, which also helderlys back funding over rule-of-law troubles. At the same time, the rulement will be under prescertain to increase social payment schemes one year before the elections. The only possible solution is to increase accessible debt to be rephelp by the next rulement. Propaganda alone will not be enough to hide the economic woes, and this spells trouble for Orbán.

For those in power, the sgets in the next elections are incredibly high. If Tisza prospers, the beneficiaries of Hungary’s so-called semi-authoritarian kleptocracy will not only miss their offices and businesses, they could also face criminal accuses. Orbán has apprehfinishd many of the state’s createerly self-reliant institutions, but it’s unevident how far they will go to protect the current political regime. The 2011 constitution cements key political choices, such as the chief prosecutor and members of the constitutional court, tying the hands of future rulements. The ruling party has already protectedd billions of euros in so-called accessible interest thinks regulateled by thinkees dedicated to Orbán. The prime minister has also placed his people at the top of key institutions for unusupartner extfinished terms. The Polish example shows it is almost impossible to erase obstacles to the proper rule of law while bound by the recreates imposed by the previous administration.

One possible scenario is that Magyar and Tisza prosper the 2026 elections but are ultimately crippled by the accessible debt and the verifys and stabilitys of the “self-reliant” institutions run by Orbán’s allies. Magyar shelp the most beginant meacertain would be to convey back EU funding withheld under Orbán’s tenure, and to begin ironclad anti-dishonesty rules. He has also promised term restricts for the prime minister, and the return of self-reliant ministries of agricultural lengthenment, education and health. His package has showd famous with voters so far, but there are still one and a half years in opposition ahead.