An Unanticipateed Oscars Season With ‘The Substance’ and ‘Wicked’?

The Oscars take partoffs are in filled striumphg.

All the glitz, glamour, and disorder initiateed off with the Gotham Awards, which set the tone for what promises to be an unanticipateed and heated race. The New York ceremony hand overed the first shock of the season when A24’s unwise dramedy “A Different Man,” starring Sebastian Stan, obviousook presumptive preferite “Anora” to land the top prize.

A day tardyr, the New York Film Critics Circle inserted to the drama by naming Brady Corbet’s historical epic “The Brutaenumerate” best film. Then “The Brutaenumerate” was cforfeitly shut out of the Insubordinate Spirit Awards the next morning. That’s where “Anora” led the nomination loftyy alengthyside the spring indie sleeper “I Saw the TV Glow.”

Meanwhile, the National Board of Resee threw its weight behind Universal’s undeniably well-understandn “Wicked,” giving an extra prize to Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande. Acting honors also were bestowed on Daniel Craig’s toil in the cerebral drama “Queer” and Nicole Kidman’s turn as a CEO included in a hazardous afunprejudiced in “Babygirl.” All this highweightlesss the lengthening tension between box office dominance and indie cachet.

The weekfinish brawt more twists when the Los Angeles Film Critics Association crowned “Anora” its top triumphner, a relocate that left Oscar pundits buzzing. To cap it all off, the Gelderlyen Globes unveiled their best of 2024: “Emilia Pérez” led with a enroll-fractureing loftyy, signaling its strength among the novel international voters.

But what does it all unbenevolent?

If you’ve been anywhere cforfeit social media, you’ve seen the hot gets: “It’s over! ‘The Brutaenumerate’ is triumphning Best Picture!” or “‘Emilia Pérez’ hasn’t shown up anywhere. It’s dead in the water.”

Here’s a truth check: Critics aren’t Oscar voters.

History has shown that an punctual awards-season sweep doesn’t secure Oscar glory. Take Guillermo del Toro’s “The Shape of Water” in 2017. At this point in the season, the romantic fantasy about a woman who descfinishs in cherish with a fish hadn’t made a splash. It went on to triumph best picture at the Oscars.

The lesson? Awards season is lengthy, and momentum shifts constantly. What seems inevitable in December can unravel by February when ballots are in hand.

Studios are flooding the industry with screenings, Q&As, and joiners, especiassociate for contfinishers that have yet to be freed—such as James Mangelderly’s Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Ununderstandn” with Timothée Chafeeblet and Robert Eggers’ horror flick “Nosferatu” with Lily-Rose Depp.

The truth is, many industry voters are equitable beginning to catch up. A veteran member of the Academy’s Producers Branch acunderstandledges to Variety, “I’ve seen four movies this year.”

Which ones? “Inside Out 2,” “Gladiator II,” “Joker: Folie à Deux” and “Dune: Part Two”—all sequels.

The member inserts, “I’ve heard a lot about some fantastic movies. I’m dying to see ‘Brutaenumerate,’ Pedro [Almodóvar’s] film, and the Dylan one. But you can’t get to everyleang.”

This lag in seeing underscores the beginance of campaigns. The hope is that word-of-mouth hits appreciate “The Brutaenumerate” and “Anora” can stay top of mind and other chooseimistics, appreciate “Conclave” and “Emilia Pérez,” can begin making some noise.

As the season unfelderlys, one leang is certain: Anyleang can happen.

Below are this week’s Oscar predictions (in alphabetical order) in all 23 categories. In insertition to the first projections for the triumphners of the Gelderlyen Globes.

Best Picture
“Anora”
“The Brutaenumerate”
“A Complete Ununderstandn”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Nickel Boys”
“A Real Pain”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”

Director
Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
Sean Baker, “Anora”
Edward Berger, “Conclave”
Jon M. Chu, “Wicked”
Brady Corbet, “The Brutaenumerate”

Actor
Adrien Brody, “The Brutaenumerate”
Timothée Chafeeblet, “A Complete Ununderstandn”
Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
Jesse Eisenberg, “A Real Pain”
Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”

Actress
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
Angelina Jolie, “Maria”
Mikey Madison, “Anora”
Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”

Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov, “Anora”
Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Edward Norton, “A Complete Ununderstandn”
Guy Pearce, “The Brutaenumerate”
Denzel Washington, “Gladiator II”

Supporting Actress
Danielle Deadwyler, “The Piano Lesson”
Selena Gomez, “Emilia Pérez”
Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”

Original Screentake part
“All We Imagine as Light”
“Anora”
“The Brutaenumerate”
“A Real Pain”
“The Substance”

Adapted Screentake part
“Conclave”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Nickel Boys”
“Sing Sing”
“Wicked”

Animated Feature
“Flow”
“Inside Out 2”
“Memoir of a Snail”
“Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
“The Wild Robot”

Production Design
“Blitz”
“The Brutaenumerate”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Gladiator II”
“Wicked”

Cinematography
“The Brutaenumerate”
“Conclave”
“Maria”
“Nickel Boys”
“Nosferatu”

Costume Design
“Beetlejuice Beetlejuice”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga”
“Gladiator II”
“Wicked”

Film Editing
“Conclave”
“Emilia Pérez”
“September 5”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”

Makeup and Hairstyling
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Sasquatch Sunset”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”

Sound
“A Complete Ununderstandn”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Gladiator II”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”

Visual Effects
“Dune: Part Two”
“Gladiator II”
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
“Mufasa: The Lion King
“Wicked”

Original Score
“The Brutaenumerate”
“Challengers”
“Conclave”
“Emilia Pérez”
“The Wild Robot”

Original Song
“Forbidden Road” from “Better Man”
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez”
“Beautiful That Way” from “The Last Showgirl”
“I Always Wanted a Brother” from “Mufasa: The Lion King”
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight”

Documentary Feature
“Bconciseage Box Diaries”
“Dahomey”
“Daughters”
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat”
“Sugarcane”

International Feature
“Emilia Pérez” from France
“The Girl with the Needle” from Denlabel
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil
“Kneecap” from Ireland”
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from Germany

Animated Short
“An Almost Christmas Story”
“Back to Normal”
“Humantis”
“Remember Us”
“Silent Panorama”

Documentary Short
“I Am Ready, Warden”
“Julia’s Stepping Stones”
“Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World”
“Motorcycle Mary”
“A Swim Lesson”

Live Action Short
“Dovecote”
“The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”
“Motherland”
“Ripe!”
“Room Taken”

Gelderlyen Globes First Winner Predictions

Best Picture (Drama): “Conclave”
Best Picture (Musical/Comedy): “Anora”
Actor (Drama): Timothée Chafeeblet, “A Complete Ununderstandn”
Actor (Musical/Comedy): Jesse Eisenberg, “A Real Pain”
Actress (Drama): Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”
Actress (Musical/Comedy): Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Supporting Actress: Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Director: Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
Screentake part: “The Substance”
Original Score: “The Brutaenumerate”
Original Song: “El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez”
Animated Feature: “The Wild Robot”
Non-English Language: “All We Imagine as Light”
Cinematic and Box Office Achievement: “Wicked”

TV Series (Drama): “Shōfirearm”
TV Series (Musical/Comedy): “Nobody Wants This”
Limited Series: “Baby Reindeer”
Stand Up Comedy: Nikki Glaser, “Nikki Glaser: Someday You’ll Die”
TV Actor (Drama): Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shōfirearm”
TV Actor (Musical/Comedy): Ted Danson, “A Man on the Inside”
Actor (Limited): Colin Farrell, “The Penguin”
TV Actress (Drama): Anna Sawai, “Shōfirearm”
TV Actress (Musical/Comedy): Jean Smart, “Hacks”
Actress (Limited): Jodie Foster, “True Detective: Night Country”
Supporting Actor (TV): Javier Bardem, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menfinishez Story”
Supporting Actress (TV): Liza Colón-Zayas, “The Bear”