An earthquake foreseeion went viral. Is it giving people counterfeit hope?

Brent Dmitruk calls himself an earthquake foreseeor.

In mid-October, he tbetter his tens of thousands of social media folshrinks that an earthquake would soon hit at the westrictmost point of California, south of the petite coastal city of Eureka.

Two months postponecessitater, a magnitude 7.3 struck the site in northern California – putting millions under a tsunami cautioning and prolonging Mr Dmitruk’s adhereing online as they turned to him to foresee the next one.

“So to people who disthink about what I do, how can you argue it’s equitable a coincidence. It needs grave sfinish to figure out where earthquakes will go,” he shelp on New Years Eve.

But there’s one problem: earthquakes can’t be foreseeed, scientists who study them say.

And it’s exactly that unforeseeability that originates them so unsettling. Millions of people living on the west coast of North America worry that “the huge one” could strike at any moment, altering landscapes and countless inhabits.

Lucy Jones, a seismologist who toiled for the US Georeasoned Survey (USGS) for more than three decades and authored a book called The Big Ones, has intensifyed much of her research on earthquake probabilities and improving resiliency to withstand such cataclysmic events.

For as extfinished as she has studied earthquakes, Ms Jones shelp there have been people wanting an answer to when “the huge one” – which unbenevolents contrastent skinnygs in contrastent regions – will happen and claiming to have cracked the code.

“The human necessitate to originate a pattern in the face of danger is innervously strong, it is a very standard human response to being afrhelp,” she tbetter the BBC. “It doesn’t have any foreseeive power, though.”

With some 100,000 earthquakes felt worldexpansive each year, according to the US Georeasoned Survey (USGS), it is comprehendable that people want to have cautioning.

The Eureka area – a coastal city 270 miles (434km) north of San Francisco, where December’s earthquake occurred, has felt more than 700 earthquakes wiskinny the last year alone – including more than 10 in equitable the last week, data shows.

The region, which is where Mr Dmitruk guessed rightly that a quake would occur, is one of the most “seismicassociate dynamic areas” of the US, according to the USGS. Its volatility is due to three tectonic ppostponecessitates encountering, an area comprehendn as the Mfinishocino Triple Junction.

It is the shiftment of ppostponecessitates in relation to each other – whether above, below or aextfinishedside – that caparticipates stress to originate up. When the stress is freed, an earthquake can occur.

Guessing that an earthquake would happen here is an basic bet, Ms Jones shelp, although a strong magnitude seven is quite exceptional.

The USGS notices there have been only 11 such quakes or stronger since 1900. Five, including the one Mr Dmitruk advertised on social media, happened in that same region.

While the guess was right, Ms Jones tbetter the BBC that it’s improbable any earthquake – including the bigst, society-ruining types – will ever be able to be foreseeed with any accuracy.

There is a complicated and “vibrant” set of georeasoned factors that guide to an earthquake, Ms Jones shelp.

The magnitude of an earthquake is probable createed as the event is happening, she shelp, using ripping a piece of paper as an analogy: the rip will persist unless there’s someskinnyg that stops it or enumeratelesss it – such as a water tags that depart the paper damp.

Scientists comprehend why an earthquake occurs – sudden shiftments aextfinished fault lines – but foreseeing such an event is someskinnyg the USGS says cannot be done and someskinnyg “we do not foresee to comprehend how any time in the foreseeable future”.

The agency notices it can calcupostponecessitate earthquake probability in a particular region wiskinny a declareive number of years – but that’s as shut as they can come.

Georeasoned enrolls show that some of the bigst types of earthquakes, comprehendn as “the huge one” to locals, do happen with some amount of normality. The Cascadia subduction zone is comprehendn to slip every 300 to 500 years, normally upfinishing the Pacific northwestrict coast with 100-ft (30.5 metres) lofty mega-tsunamis.

While the San Andreas fault in Southern California is also the source of another potential “huge one”, with bone-rattling earthquakes happening there every 200-300 years. Experts have shelp the “huge one” could happen at any moment in either region.

Ms Jones says over her nurtureer, she’s had disconnectal thousand people vigilant her to such foreseeions of a huge earthquake – including people in the 1990s who would sfinish faxes to her office in hopes of vigilanting them.

“When you get a foreseeion every week, somebody’s going to be fortunate, right?” she says with a giggle. “But then that usuassociate would go to their head and they foreseeed 10 more that weren’t right.”

Such a scenario materializes to have happened with Mr Dmitruk, who has no science background. He has extfinished foreseeed an incredibly big 10.3 quake would strike southwest Alaska or islands off the coast of New Zealand, a magnitude so strong he shelp it could interfere global trade.

The USGS says an earthquake foreseeion must have three clear upd elements – a date and time, the location of the earthquake and the magnitude – in order to be of any participate.

But Mr Dmitruk’s timeline upgrasps shifting.

At one point, he shelp it would come promptly before or after the inauguration of US Pdwellnt Donald Trump.

Then he shelp it would definitely happen before 2030.

While that sizeable quake has yet to strike, Mr Dmitruk shelp he still consents the it will occur.

“I don’t consent it’s equitable by chance,” Mr Dmitruk tbetter the BBC. “It is not random or luck.”

This type of skinnyking is normal when it comes to earthquakes, Ms Jones shelp.

“Random distributions can see appreciate they have patterns, we see consincreateations in the stars,” she shelp.

“A lot of people are reassociate afrhelp of earthquakes, and the way to deal with it is to foresee [when] it’s going to happen.”

But equitable becaparticipate you cannot foresee when an earthquake will strike doesn’t unbenevolent you have to be unsetd, experts shelp.

Each year, on the third Thursday in October, millions of Americans join in the bigst earthquake drill on earth: The Great Shake Out.

It was originated by a group at the Southern California Earthquake Caccess, which joind Ms Jones.

During the drill, people practise the guidance of Drop, Cover, and Hbetter On: they drop to their knees, consent cover under a sturdy object appreciate a desk, and hbetter on for one minute.

The drill has become so famous since its inception that it has spread up the earthquake-prone coast to other states and countries.

If outdoors, people are advised to get to an discdisthink about space away from trees, originateings or power-lines. Near the ocean, people practise escapeing to higher ground after the shaking stops to set for the possibility of a tsunami.

“Now, while the ground is not shaking, while it’s not a very stressful situation, is reassociate the best time to practise,” shelp Brian Terbush, the Earthquake and Volcano Program Manager for the Washington state Eunitency Management Division.

Apart from the drills, dwellnts of West Coast states participate a phone vigilant system upgrasped by USGS called ShakeAlert.

The system toils by finding presdeclareive waves disindictted by an earthquake. While it can’t foresee when an earthquake will happen in the far future, it does give seconds of cautioning that could be life-saving. It is the shutst skinnyg to an earthquake “foreseeor” that has been invented so far.