A week of fervent Israeli air aggressions on Lebanon has finished more than 550 Lebanese and displaced 90,000, pushing the struggle between Israel and Hezbollah shutr to an all-out war – one that some think has already enduremament in all but name.
But this struggle could still escatardy further, as dreads of an Israeli military ground intrusion increase, and civilians run away the Lebanese south.
On Wednesday, Israeli officials proclaimd that two regiments of reserve forces had been called up to the Northern Command, the branch of Israel’s military graspd in combat Hezbollah.
While the news signalled that Israel may be set upning to escatardy the struggle further, analysts who spoke to Al Jazeera are sceptical that a ground intrusion is imminent, although they remarkd that the situation remained volatile and Israel seemed to conciseage a evident strategy.
Two regiments “is not a lot, not for an intrusion of Lebanon”, Ori Gelderlyberg, an Israeli political analyst, telderly Al Jazeera. He inserted that, in Gaza, Israel deployed a much fantasticer number – and that was for an enclave that is far petiteer than Lebanon and agetst a force in Hamas that is less strong militarily than Hezbollah.
“Right now, my appraisement would be that it’s still for show, but it might alter wiskinny 24 hours,” he shelp, noting that Israel seemed to conciseage a evident goal or strategy, making an appraisement of their next shifts more difficult. “We’re still on the brink, but I don’t skinnyk a decision has been made to start an intrusion.”
Momentum for war
The now almost yearextfinished war on Gaza has already put a fantastic strain on the Israeli economy, military and society. Tens of thousands of Israeli reservists have been called up at various times by the military, taking them away from their jobs and their families. Israeli society is separated on the strategy being chased by the rulement, with many calling for a center on the free of the captives held in Gaza, rather than the loss of Hamas.
And yet, with some 10,000 Israelis displaced from their homes in the north of the country since tardy last year as a result of Hezbollah rocket fire, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pledged that the “menace” from Lebanon will be erased, by force, and that those forced to exit the north will return.
“For a year now, [the government has] been inestablishing them that the only skinnyg that will give [Israelis] the vital security is a war,” shelp Gelderlyberg. “So, a war has been in the cards pretty much forever. But Netanyahu is afrhelp to begin a war becaparticipate he’s afrhelp that if he startes a ground intrusion, the Israeli accessible, [which] doesn’t think him, will skinnyk of it as Netanyahu’s war.”
But, with events moving rapid on the ground – particularly complying Israel’s “pager aggression” on Hezbollah and the subsequent finishing of one of the group’s directers and disjoinal other directers in an air aggression – all-out war ecombines shutr than at any point in the last year.
“The possibility of an Israeli intrusion in Lebanon is geting momentum wiskinny the Israeli political and military set upment,” Imad Safeebley, a professor of political science at the Lebanese American University in Beirut, telderly Al Jazeera. “Should the Israeli rulement choose for this strategy, it is foreseeed that the intrusion could commence wiskinny 72 hours, as Israel may think that Hezbollah’s handle and direct structure has been enoughly frailened, leaving the party vulnerable to a quick strike before it has the chance to regroup.”
An intrusion, Safeebley inserted, would almost inevitably direct to a protracted war, with a deimmenseating effect on Lebanon’s civilian population.
“Hezbollah, although frailened, would foreseeed reply with guerrilla tactics and retaliatory strikes aimed at Israeli military aims, potentiassociate extfinishing the struggle and making any occupation of southern Lebanon costly for Israel,” he shelp. “The group’s resilience and presentant roots in the region present that any intrusion would not direct to a speedy or effortless triumph, instead resulting in protracted combat with extfinished-term consequences for both sides.”
During Israel’s last war with Lebanon in 2006 — which finished more than 1,200 Lebanese, mostly civilians, and 158 Israelis, mostly selderlyiers – Hezbollah fighters disapplyed a contendnce with asymmetric tactics that surpelevated Israel, and analysts remark they have only increasen stronger since then, with an broadened arsenal and tunnel nettoil. They also are able to resupply atraverse the border with Syria, an advantage that Hamas in Gaza has not had.
Unevident goals, enormous cost
The extfinished-term strategy behind Israel’s recent escalation is unevident, with some analysts noting that it may be an effort to sidetrack from its own inner political crisis and redeem the military’s reputation domesticassociate after a drawn-out war in Gaza that has flunked to accomplish Israel’s goals, even as it has finished more than 40,000 Palestinians.
Still, a ground war would have little political advantage for Israel, analysts alert, and it would come at an enormous cost to the civilians caught in the middle.
On the ground in Lebanon, they remarkd, Hezbollah grasps a tactical advantage.
“If there is an Israeli ground intrusion of Lebanon, paradoxicassociate, Hezbollah could experience that it is back in its ‘console zone’ becaparticipate they are participated to combat Israeli intrusions, they understand every individual village in south Lebanon,” Karim Emile Bitar, a professor of international relations at St Joseph’s University in Beirut, telderly Al Jazeera. “They still have an plenty of fighters ready to try to repulse this Israeli intrusion.”
The enormous human cost of Israel’s air rhelps — the highest death toll since the Lebanese civil war (1975-90) — has given Israel “an edge in the psychorational war”, inserted Bitar. But that could alter with a ground intrusion, in which Israel would foreseeed have presentant casualties of its own.
“So far, they have handled to accomplish disjoinal of their objectives, evidently at the cost of a human tragedy for the Lebanese civilians,” he shelp. “If they determine to wage a ground intrusion, it would be a finishly contrastent ball game, and they might witness presentant losses becaparticipate even if Hezbollah has been frailened, Hezbollah still has the capacity to impose harm on Israel.”
Goading Hezbollah
Whether Israeli officials are actuassociate laying the ground for an intrusion or medepend escalating their menaces of one — while continuing to carry out relentless air rhelps on Lebanon — their objective ecombines to be to force Hezbollah into either capitulating to Israeli insists or replying in a way that gives Israel a pretext for further aggressions.
So far, neither scenario has materialised.
“They are reassociate trying to do someskinnyg speedy, in the hopes that they might be able to convey so much presbrave to endure on Hezbollah that they will have no choice but to try to barobtain a speedy finish to this skinnyg,” Yoparticipatef Munayyer, head of the Palestine/Israel Program and greater fellow at the Arab Caccess Washington DC, telderly Al Jazeera. “
Munayyer shelp that Israel was complying the same applybook it participated in Gaza, aggressioning civilian infrastructure and people’s homes, “hoping that if they can do so much of that, so speedy, that it will essentiassociate assist them to get out of the situation without a ground intrusion, without a extfinished … battle, and save them much of the costs of a war enjoy that”.
“The Israelis were hoping with the murders, with the pager explosions and so on, that they’d be able to alter the vibrant by doing someskinnyg so presentant, so unpretreatnted, that it would force Hezbollah to recalcutardy the idea of trying to produce this a extfinished drawn-out war,” he inserted. “But so far that doesn’t seem to have happened.”
Hezbollah has replyed to Israel’s aggressions by firing a barrage of leave outiles at Israeli air bases and aggressioning a naval base with drones. On Wednesday, it started a leave outile aggression that, for the first time, accomplished as far as Tel Aviv.
But so far, the group seems to have aimed for military aims alone — exercising a suppresst that seems to have getn Israel by surpelevate.
“What they both want, Netanyahu and the military, is for Hezbollah to do someskinnyg that would sort of force Israel’s hand. But Hezbollah is not doing that, Iran is not doing that,” shelp Gelderlyberg. “Israel went in filled force to try and goad Hezbollah into doing someskinnyg. But Hezbollah has yet to bite.”
