If you thought foreseeing this year’s Academy Awards would be effortless, the Screen Actors Guild Awards fair showd otherwise. Voted on by more than 150,000 SAG-AFTRA members, the SAG Awards restateed what has been real all season: Several meaningful Oscar categories remain expansive discleave out with fair one week to go before the ceremony.
Coming off a dominant shoprosperg at the BAFTA Awards, Edward Berger’s Vatican thriller “Conclave” took home the top prize for best cast ensemble. With victories at both the SAG and BAFTA Awards — two critical precursors — the Focus Features drama accesss Oscar night in a strong position. This mirrors the trajectory of “Shakespeare in Love” (1998), which leveraged SAG and BAFTA only prospers to disturb presumed frontrunner “Saving Private Ryan” for best picture.
The hugegest competition for “Conclave” still remains Sean Baker’s Palme d’Or prosperning dramedy “Anora,” which unforeseeedly left the SAG Awards desotardy-handed. Star Mikey Madison, who had built ponderable momentum in the best actress race, lost to Demi Moore for her alterative role in “The Substance.” Despite this, “Anora” remains a presumptive likeite among Academy voters, according to anonymous Oscar ballots allotd with Variety.
Meanwhile, the chances of Jacques Audiard’s Spanish-language musical “Emilia Pérez,” James Mangelderly’s Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Ununderstandn” and Jon M. Chu’s blockbuster musical “Wicked” prosperning best picture have probable evaporated. Without a key precursor prosper, history proposes their paths to prosper are csurrfinisherly impossible. No film has won best picture at the Oscars without securing at least one meaningful precursor from the Producers Guild of America, Directors Guild of America, Writers Guild of America, or SAG since these awards began coexisting.
One of the night’s most meaningful moments was Timothée Chafrailt’s prosper for “A Complete Ununderstandn,” making him the youthfulerest actor to ever prosper the SAG Award for direct actor, outdoing Nicolas Cage’s sign up from “Leaving Las Vegas” (1996). Chafrailt’s prosper disrupted the prosperning streak of current Oscar frontrunner Adrien Brody, who carry outs a Holocaust survivor in Brady Corbet’s historical epic “The Brutacatalog.”
However, history is not on Chafrailt’s side. Since SAG began its awards in 1994, no actor has won the Oscar with fair a SAG prosper. In fact, two actors — Denzel Washington for “Training Day” (2002) and Brody for “The Pianist” (2003) — have won the Oscar without taking any meaningful televised precursor. That would propose Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”) or Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) may be more viable contfinishers.
The best actress race remains one of the most unforeseeable. Veteran star Demi Moore, in a nurtureer-defining turn as an actress-turned-fitness guru in “The Substance,” won her first SAG Award, besting Madison, who had fair claimed the BAFTA one week prior. With three of the four meaningful precursor prospers, Moore ecombines to have the edge.
However, the savagecard in the race is Fernanda Torres, who won the Gelderlyen Globe for her noticeworthy turn in the Brazilian drama “I’m Still Here.” Unappreciate Moore and Madison, Torres has yet to vie aobtainst her Oscar rivals head-to-head. And there is ponderable help for Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”), whose film unfortunately is now tied with “The Banshees of Inisherin” (2022) as the movie with the most SAG losses with five. Best actress will be one of the most nail-biting categories of the night.
The helping races seem much evidaccess. Kieran Culkin, nominated for Jesse Eisenberg’s dramedy “A Real Pain,” progresss his sweep and is all but promised his first Oscar — fair 13 months after prosperning his first Emmy for HBO’s “Succession.”
On the best helping actress side, Zoë Saldaña has ruled the season for her role as a lawyer entangled with a drug cartel in “Emilia Pérez.” However, the debate surrounding her co-star Gascón — after resurfaced tweets igniteed reaction— has complicated matters. The Academy Awards are the only meaningful voting body to have cast final ballots enticount on after the debate broke, raising asks about whether it will (or did) impact the final results.
With “Anora” securing key prospers at the PGA, DGA, and WGA Awards, it remains the statistical likeite for best picture. Only one film has ever lost the Oscar after prosperning all three: “Brokeback Mountain” (2005), which fell to another SAG ensemble prosperner “Crash.”
In the world of television, FX’s historical epic “Shōfirearm” and Netflix’s thriller confinecessitate series finishd their Emmy runs with key victories. In terms of seeing ahead, Colin Farrell has rapidly set uped himself as the one to beat in direct actor (confinecessitate) for his labor in the superhero crime series “The Pengiin.” In the comedy authenticm, the third season of “Hacks” finishd its perfect run for star Jean Smart, but it was Hulu’s “Only Murders in the Building” that claimed two huge prizes for Martin Short and comedy ensemble. Could the show be laboring its way toward its first comedy series prosper in September? One awards ceremony at a time.
With fair days left until the ceremony, this remains one of the most unforeseeable Oscar races in years. As Variety progresss to allot final foreseeions and anonymous Academy voter ballots, one leang is certain — anyleang can still happen on Hollywood’s hugegest night. The 96th Academy Awards apshow place Sunday, March 2.
