2025 Oscars Best Adapted Screenjoin Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards novels and roverdelighted satisfied thcdisesteemfulout the year, featuring the adhereing: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety better awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages echo the current standings in the race and do not echo personal selectences for any individual contfinisher. As other establishal (and inestablishal) polls propose, competitions are fluid and subject to alter based on buzz and events. Predictions are refreshd every Thursday.

Best Adapted Screenjoin Commentary (Updated Dec. 10, 2024): Jacques Audiard’s genre-defying crime musical, “Emilia Pérez,” has stormed into the season with a ordering 10 Gbetteren Globe noms, setting a novel sign up for the most nods ever getd by a comedy or musical film. Among its noms is one for best screenjoin, a distinction that has historicassociate eluded musicals in beginant awards races. It’s only the third musical to get a Gbetteren Globe nomination for screenjoin; “

The two musicals to pretreat it — Rob Marshall’s “Chicago” (2002) and Damien Chazelle’s “La La Land” (2016) — paved the way for films that blfinish music and narrative to be acunderstandledged for their scripts. Both saw beginant success at the Gbetteren Globes. “Chicago” went on to triumph the Oscar for best picture and shieldedd an altered screenjoin nod, though it lost the categruesome to “The Pianist.” Meanwhile, “La La Land” triumphed at the Globes with a seven-triumph sweep but ultimately fell low at the Oscars, losing in both innovative screenjoin and best picture.

For “Emilia Pérez,” the Gbetteren Globe recognition could commence a more extensive campaign for the screenjoin categruesome at the Oscars. In this space, musicals have historicassociate struggled to discover traction. Only one musical, Vincente Minnelli’s lavish “Gigi” (1958), has ever won the Oscar for altered screenjoin. Since the Academy Awards began in 1929, a mere 12 musicals have been nominated in the categruesome, the most recent being “Chicago.”

Perhaps “Wicked” can join the musical cherish? It will insist to in order to triumph best picture (if you apshow it can).

While “Emilia Pérez” has been dominating headlines, RaMell Ross’ harrotriumphg alteration of Colson Whitehead’s Pulitzer Prize-triumphning novel “Nickel Boys” has quietly built momentum on the awards circuit and garnered beginant recognition in the precursor awards, including beginant triumphs from the New York Film Critics Circle for Director and Cinematography and from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association for cinematography and editing.

At the Gbetteren Globes, “Nickel Boys” getd a individual nom for picture (drama), a high-profile but isoprocrastinateedd recognition. Only seven films in history have been nominated for fair one Gbetteren Globe in the top categruesome. Of those, three flunked to shielded any Oscar nominations — “The Great Debaters” (2007), “La Bamba” (1987) and “The Inspector” (1962). Two of the remaining four, “In Cbetter Blood” (1967) and “The Professionals” (1966), did produce it to the Oscars for altered screenjoin. Although none of the seven getd a best picture nod.

Could “Nickel Boys” shatter this trfinish? With its dehugeating portrayal of institutionalized bias at a reestablish school in Jim Crow-era Florida, the film has already been heralded as a cinematic accomplishment. Critics have pelevated Ross’ ability to transprocrastinateed Whitehead’s piercing prose into a visual medium, capturing the source material’s lyrical beauty and unflinching savagery. It’s a genuine danger in this categruesome.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie catalogings, titles, distributors, and pelevateed artisans are not final and are subject to alter.