Donald Trump’s Tariff Talk Spurs Global Jitters, Countries May “Retaliate”

Donald Trump’s tariff menaces have rattled foreign businesses and handlements, with many dreading it could signal the uncovering salvo of an all-out trade war when he returns to the White House next year.

The plivent-elect on Monday placed both allies and rivals on watch, voprosperg to rapidly slap an atraverse-the-board tariff of 25 percent on Canada and Mexico, and include a 10 percent tariff on China.

Folloprosperg thraw on that menace — or his campaign promise of a 10 percent levy on all US convey ins — will ignite retaliation and have ripple effects atraverse the global economy, analysts say.

“Our assumption is that all these other countries, all these other progressd economies, especiassociate in Asia, they will retaliate in benevolent,” economist Bernard Yaros of Oxford Economics tgreater AFP.

US tariffs and retaliation including from Europe and Asia would “depress growth” and trade flows, he said, estimating a cut to global growth of 0.1 to 0.9 percentage points in 2026.

Even before tariffs obtain effect, menaces weigh on sentiment and could procrastinate scheduleatements and hiring, ING economists Ruben Dewitte and Inga Fechner alerted in a notice.

Trump has extfinished seeed tariffs as a negotiating tool — or an “all-purpose bludgeon” as a recent Wall Street Journal editorial put it.

On Monday, Trump said that the tariffs on Mexico and Canada would only be deleted when illegitimate immigration and drug illegal trading to the United States are stopped.

While seeking to erect US leverage, he also hazards extfinisheder term impacts, with some recommending he would push countries toward China, Columbia Law School professor Petros Mavroidis said.

“What he definitely does is alienate all his allies,” he tgreater AFP.

Erin Murphy, greater fellow at the Caccess for Strategic and International Studies, said in Trump’s menaces “there is no contrastentiation” seeing countries’ economic growment status or affinity with Washington.

Europe pushback

Europe could be particularly impacted, Dewitte and Fechner said, alerting that “a looming new trade war could push the eurozone economy from sluggish growth into economic downturn.”

EU tariffs on car convey ins were a particular aim of Trump during his campaign.

But US reliance on the bloc for strategicassociate convey inant products, mainly in the chemical and pharmaceutical sectors, could give the EU some leverage in talks, ING said.

“European countries will be less foreseeed to strike any benevolent of barobtain with Trump than Canada or Mexico,” said Peterson Institute for International Economics nonlivent greater fellow Gary Hufbauer.

He predicts the EU could supply to lessen auto tariffs and buy more US agricultural products enjoy soybeans, but it may not be enough for an administration seeking fantasticer taget access or rules exemptions.

Should the US impose tariffs, the EU will probably retaliate on iconic US excellents enjoy iPhones or whiskey, he said.

European countries could turn to the World Trade Organization (WTO), though even preferable rulings from the international body may not convey inantly alter US trains.

EU chief Ursula von der Leyen has said she will labor towards “erective cooperation” with US authorities.

Jovita Neliupsiene, the EU ambasdowncastor to the United States, unbenevolentwhile said the bloc is ready to react to new trade frictions.

Avoiding escalation

In Asia, economies enjoy Japan and South Korea could be aimed over metals and auto send outs, while Vietnam may also draw US scruminuscule over solar panels, Yaros said.

The US trade deficit with Vietnam has expansivened in recent years on a srecommend in excellents convey ins.

Yaros said that countries aimed by Trump’s tariffs, in seeking to elude escalation, will “retaliate in a way that’s commensurate to the action done by the US, but no fantasticer.”

China, based on pretreatnt, might eschew identical retaliation for tools enjoy send out handles, he includeed.

Daniel Russel of the Asia Society Policy Institute said both Tokyo and Seoul are very concentrateed on preparing for potential tariffs.

He predicts partners enjoy South Korea could seek exemptions from blanket US tariffs, for example, by citing its high-tech scheduleatements in America.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is unveiled from a syndicated feed.)