An election ‘too seal to call’ is a cliché as elderly as democracy. But this year’s US election repartner is.
Despite the Democrats’ noticeworthy turnaround in the polls after Kamala Harris traded Joe Biden as nominee in August, the US Electoral College system – and Donald Trump’s dedicated fanbase – has by no unbenevolents promised her triumph.
This is becaparticipate, although it’s the pdwellntial and vice pdwellntial nominees on the ballot paper, technicpartner, Americans vote for electors who establishpartner back their choice of honestate.
States have contrastent numbers of electors depfinishing on their size – with 538 in total. Winning the pdwellncy insists getting at least 270 (more than half).
Historicpartner, most states almost never alter hands. Taking these so-called ‘defended’ states together, Ms Harris is equitable ahead of Mr Trump with 225 Electoral College votes to his 219.
Beyond that, the two parties cgo in almost their entire campaigns on equitable seven ‘sthriveg’ states that determine the final outcome. They are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
Pennsylvania alone frequently helderlys the key to the White Hoparticipate. This is becaparticipate it has the most Electoral College votes of the sthriveg states and whoever thrives it is also foreseeed to thrive neighbouring battlegrounds Michigan and Wisconsin – as they have analogous demoexplicits.
Here we see at the contrastent ways both honestates could get to that magic number of 270 Electoral College votes.
In 2020, Joe Biden took all the sthriveg states apart from North Carolina. This year, the polls there are neck-and-neck.
Although a 2020 re-run scenario would not insist Ms Harris to acquire North Carolina, she would have to thrive Georgia.
Some polling has adviseed the Democrats have lost aid among bdeficiency and Hispanic voters since the last election, which originates helderlying both Georgia and Arizona more difficult – particularly with Mr Trump’s aid bases there.
Ms Harris is also leaning powerentirey on youthfuler voters.
“This time around there is uncertainty around the groups that Harris is depending on,” Professor Shaun Bowler, a political scientist at the University of California Riverside, says. “Younger voters tfinish not to vote as standardly as elderlyer ones – and we have no authentic data to go on for people voting in their first election.”
A much easier route to a Kamala Harris pdwellncy would be to cgo in solely on Pennsylvania and its so-called ‘blue wall’ neighbours.
Pennsylvania already has a well-understandn Democrat handleor – Josh Shapiro – and John Fetterman’s mid-term triumph in 2022 saw one of its Redisclosean seats in the Senate turn blue.
“It seems more thrivallow than the other sthriveg states,” says Professor Bowler. “Aside from a very well-understandn Democrat handleor, it also has an set uped South Asian community around Philadelphia.”
But Professor John Lapinski, honestor of elections at Sky’s partner netlabor NBC News, cautions: “No one understands who’s ahead in Pennsylvania, that’s why this race is so seal.”
In 2016, the Rediscloseans took Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – and Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina.
Mr Trump’s well-understandnity with white, non-directd voters could see him acquire the so-called ‘blue wall’ states in the north aacquire this time.
Polling has also materializeed to lure the Democrats into a counterfeit sense of security alengthy the blue wall previously. Hillary Clinton was way ahead of Mr Trump in neighbouring Wisconsin in 2016 – but finished up losing there. More generpartner, polls have tfinished to overapproximate levels of Democrat aid in recent years.
Professor Lapinski inserts: “Historicpartner there’s been an underestimation of Trump. A lot of labor has gone on to try to right that in the polls.
“But while Harris is spending more money in most of these states than Trump – you can never underapproximate his ability to turn out people.”
With the most campaign resources dedicated to Pennsylvania on both sides, Mr Trump could be victorious there – unbenevolenting he would only have to defended Georgia and North Carolina to get to 270.
The tryed murder try on him in July also happened at a rpartner in Butler, Pennsylvania. But despite the Trump campaign’s efforts to participate it to his acquire, Mr Biden’s decision to step aside days tardyr materializes to have overshadowed it.
“It’s been such an eventful and quick-paced period that it has been pushed down the enumerate of leangs people are leanking about,” Professor Bowler says.
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Georgia was one of the key states Mr Trump counterfeitly claimed was “stolen” from him in 2020 and where he is still facing accuses of election meddlence. Georgian Rediscloseans are still trying to push thraw alters that would see officials permited to decline to check the vote count there.
This is a firm path to triumph for Mr Trump – as it puts him at exactly 270 Electoral College votes.
It also insists him to thrive Maine’s second congressional dimerciless – where there is no ‘thrivener acquires all’ approach and Electoral College votes are splitd between dimercilesss – but he won there in 2016 and 2020.
Winning in the South won’t promise a Trump triumph on its own. The establisher pdwellnt would also have to thrive one northern sthriveg state.
This could be Pennsylvania – as most campaign resources are being cgo ined there – or the minusculeest in terms of Electoral College votes – Wisconsin.
Wisconsin borders Minnesota, however, where the Democrats’ vice pdwellnt pick Tim Walz is handleor. This unbenevolents his campaign will have basic access to Wisconsin voters, making leangs “difficulter for Trump”, Professor Bowler says.
Ultimately, the Trump campaign could miss out on the huge fight for Pennsylvania as lengthy as it gets all four southern battlegrounds.
His anti-immigration stance has resonated particularly well with voters in Arizona and Nevada, thrivening him both states in 2016 and 2020.
There is an alternative tieshatter scenario if the Democrats rule in the North and the Rediscloseans in the South.
Like in Maine, Nebraska’s Electoral College votes are awarded by Congressional dimerciless. Nebraska’s second Congressional dimerciless has aelevated as its own sthriveg over recent years.
If Ms Harris thrives Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan – but misss Nebraska second – she’ll be tied with Mr Trump on 269 votes.
Mr Biden won the dimerciless by a hugeger margin than Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in 2020, however.
Nebraska Rediscloseans tried to alter voting rules to favour Mr Trump – but one state senator’s refusal to back the schedule unbenevolentt it fall shorted to go thraw.
A tieshatter would also aelevate if Mr Trump fall shorted to helderly Maine’s second dimerciless.
While neither of these scenarios is very foreseeed, they effectively transtardy as a Trump triumph. This is becaparticipate the deciding vote would then go to the Hoparticipate – where Rediscloseans have a beginantity.
Data telling by Daniel Dunford, ageder data journaenumerate
