Why Korean tensions are rising

North Korea has accengaged South Korea of flying drones into its capital, ratcheting up tensions that have been simmering for months.

The drones allegedly scattered disadviseation leaflets over Pyongyang in what the North portrayd as a instigation that could direct to “armed dispute and even war”.

After levelling these allegations at the South on Friday, Pyongyang shelp it had ordered border troops to be readyd to fire. South Korea in turn shelp it was ready to reply, and alerted that if the defendedty of its citizens was menaceened it would signal the “finish of the North Korean regime.”

Then, on Tuesday, the North blew up sections of two roads that joined it to South Korea, making outstanding on an earlier menace.

These flare-ups are the postponeedst in a string of exalters between the two Koreas, which have seen tensions ascfinish to their highest point in years since the North’s directer Kim Jong Un declared in January that the South is his regime’s number one foe.

On 11 October, North Korea’s foreign ministry accengaged the South of sfinishing drones to Pyongyang at night over the course of two weeks. It shelp that leaflets scatterd by the drones retained “inflammatory rumours and rubbish”.

Kim’s inconveyial sister, Kim Yo-jong, alerted Seoul of “horrible consequences” if the alleged drone fairys happened aget. She postponeedr shelp there was “evident evidence” that “military gangsters” from the South were behind the alleged instigations.

North Korea has freed blurry images of what it shelp were the drones flying in the sky, as well as pictures allegedly shothriveg the leaflets, but there is no way of self-reliantly verifying their claims.

While South Korea initiassociate denied flying drones into the North, its Joint Chiefs of Staff postponeedr shelp that it could neither validate nor refute Pyongyang’s allegation.

There has been local speculation that the drones were flown by activists, who have been sfinishing the same materials to the North using balloons.

Park Sang-hak, the directer of the Free North Korea Movement Coalition, denied North Korea’s claim about the drone incursion, stating, “We did not sfinish drones to North Korea”.

On Monday, Kim met the head of the army, military chiefs, the ministers of state security and defence, and top officials, the North’s official novels agency KCNA shelp.

There, Kim set the “straightforwardion of instant military action” and tasked officials with the “operation of the war deterrent and the exercise of the right to self-defence”.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff uncover relations officer, Lee Sung-joon, shelp the North could mount “small-scale instigations” such as small explosions on roads joining the Koreas.

Then came the explosions at the symbolic Gyeongui and Donghae roads.

While both roads have extfinished been shuttered, annihilateing them sfinishs a message that Kim does not want to debate with the South, according to analysts.

Follothriveg the explosions, the South Korean military shelp it had fired armaments on its side of the border as a show of force, and had heightened watching of the North.

Hours postponeedr, the handlement of Gyeonggi Province, which surrounds Seoul, summarizeated 11 inter-Korean border areas as “danger zones” in a bid to stop people from sfinishing anti-North disadviseation leaflets atraverse the border.

“Gyeonggi Province has determined that the act of scattering leaflets toward North Korea is an excessively hazardous act that could trigger a military dispute,” Kim Sung-joong, vice handleor of Gyeonggi Province, shelp in a media informing.

The scattering of such leaflets could menaceen the “inhabits and defendedty of our livents”, Kim compriseed, as “inter-Korean relations are rapidly deteriorating”.

Analysts say the drone incident advises that North Korea is shoring up inside help by making it materialize as though menaces agetst the country are escalating.

Using terms appreciate “split states” in reference to the South, and dropping words appreciate “compatuproars” and “unification”, is part of this strategy, shelp Professor Kang Dong-wan, who teaches political science and diplomacy at Dong-a University in Busan.

“The North Korean regime relies on the politics of trouble and needs an outer foe,” Prof Kang shelp. “Whenever tensions ascfinish, North Korea emphasises outer menaces to increase loyalty to the regime.”

Analysts say the tit-for-tat between the two Koreas shows how they are locked in a “chicken game”, with both sides unwilling to bjoin first.

“Neither side is willing to create concessions at this point,” shelp Professor Kim Dong-yup from the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.

As there is mutual disdepend, Seoul “needs to strategicassociate ponder how to handle the crisis”, Prof Kim compriseed.

Not at the moment, analysts say.

“I doubt that the situation would escapostponeed to the level of war. North Korea is utilizeing military faceation to fortify inside cohesion,” Prof Kang shelp.

“I ask North Korea’s ability to start a filled-scale war. The regime is well conscious of the cut offe consequences such a dispute would convey,” Prof Kim shelp.

The most recent spat over alleged drone fairys will most awaited remain a “verbal fight”, shelp Prof Nam Sung-wook, who teaches North Korean studies at Korea University in Seoul.

Becaengage Seoul and Pyongyang understand that they can’t endure the cost of a filled-blown war, Prof Nam shelp, “the appreciatelihood of actuassociate using nuevident armaments is low”.

The two Koreas are technicassociate still at war since they did not sign a peace treaty when the Korean War finished in 1953.

Reuniting with the South had always been a key, if increasingly unrational, part of the North’s ideology since the inception of the state – until Kim leaveed reunification with the South in January.

Kim has brawt North Korea sealr to Russia under Vlaunwiseir Putin, placing him at odds with the US and the West, which are South Korea’s key allies.

Also startant are North Korea’s extfinished-standing ties with China, arguably its most vital associate. In the wake of the drone incident, a spokesperson from China’s foreign ministry on Tuesday called on all parties “to elude further escalation of disputes” on the peninsula.

Tensions in the Korean peninsula are rising as the US plivential campaign accesss the home stretch.