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8 Predictions For January 2024’s Box Office


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Summary

  • The January 2024 horror film Night Swim may follow the success of last year’s popular hit M3GAN.
  • He Went That Way, a road movie and serial killer story, faces tough competition but may find appeal from its lead actors.
  • The Mean Girls musical, based on the popular Broadway play, is the most anticipated January release and has the potential to outperform the original film.

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There are eight major titles that are releasing in theaters which will make up the bulk of the January 2024 box office. Eleven major titles were released in December 2023 to wrap up the year in movies as awards season rapidly approaches. Some of these titles include Poor Things, Ferrari, The Boy and the Heron, The Iron Claw, Migration, Aquaman 2, and Wonka. A strong box office finish in December allowed for a $9 billion total in revenue, a landmark figure that 2024 is already projected not to surpass due to its fewer wide releases.

January is historically considered a slow month for the movies, as most of the films that are released in January are typically not among the best of the year. This is mostly due to the industry shifting focus on the best movies of the year before it and the fact that January movies often aren’t very relevant during awards season in any given year. Many of the December and Christmas 2023 releases will likely continue to drive box office performance throughout January, particularly Wonka, Migration, and Aquaman 2. Many limited titles will also see expanded releases in foreign markers in January such as Poor Things and The Boy and the Heron.

Related

25 Most Anticipated Movies Of 2024

There are plenty of major franchises, directors, and stars with films coming out in 2024, but these are Screen Rant’s most anticipated movies of 2024.

8 Night Swim

$42 – 56 million

Amélie Hoeferle in Blumhouse's Night Swim

Night Swim

Release Date
January 5, 2024

Director
Bryce McGuire

Cast
Kerry Condon , Wyatt Russell , Nancy Lenehan , Amélie Hoeferle , Jodi Long , Gavin Warren

Rating
Not Yet Rated

Runtime
116 Minutes

Writers
Rod Blackhurst , Bryce McGuire

Studio(s)
Atomic Monster , Blumhouse Productions , Universal Pictures

Distributor(s)
Universal Pictures

The first major horror movie of the year Night Swim will come out on January 5, 2024. January horror movie releases have historically done well in the past, particularly in the case of last year’s breakout hit M3GAN, which ended up being the third highest-grossing horror movie of 2023 with a total of roughly $95 million domestically. Night Swim could follow a similar route as M3GAN, especially considering the fact that both Blumhouse and Universal were involved in the film’s production. Night Swim stars Wyatt Russell and is written and directed by Bryce McGuire.

7 He Went That Way

$7 – 21 million

Zachary Quinto & Jacob Elordi in He Went That Way

He Went That Way

Release Date
June 9, 2023

Director
Jeffrey Darling

Rating
Not Rated

Runtime
95 Minutes

Writers
Evan M. Wiener

Studio(s)
Mister Smith Entertainment , Tea Shop Productions

Distributor(s)
Vertical Entertainment

Also coming out on January 5, 2024 is He Went That Way, an apparent hybrid of a road movie and a serial killer murder story. The film, starring Jacob Elordi and Zachary Quinto, is sure to draw fans of either or both actors to the theaters but sill likely have a tough time against the release of Night Swim as well as the rollover of the December movie slate. He Went That Way is based on a true story which could generate some natural appeal. However, without much of a marketing effort and a competitive theatrical market, the film could end up being brushed under the rug.

6 Mean Girls

$75 – 89 million

Regina and Karen surprised in Mean Girls 2024

Mean Girls (2024)

Release Date
January 12, 2024

Director
Samantha Jayne , Arturo Perez Jr.

Cast
Angourie Rice , Auli’i Cravalho , Jaquel Spivey , Reneé Rapp , Jon Hamm , Ashley Park , Jenna Fischer , Tina Fey , Tim Meadows

Rating
Not Yet Rated

Writers
Nell Benjamin , Tina Fey

Studio(s)
Broadway Video , Little Stranger , Paramount Pictures , Paramount Players

Distributor(s)
Paramount Pictures

Story By
Tina Fey

The most anticipated theatrical release of January 2024 is the Mean Girls musical, which is based on the popular Broadway play. While the original Mean Girls earned roughly $86 million domestically, the Mean Girls musical film has the potential to outperform it due to many factors including its already existing audience and the lingering hype from last year’s most portable movie, Barbie. Some estimates have Mean Girls surpassing the $100 million mark domestically, but its most significant figure will be whether or not it makes more than Tiny Fey’s original 2004 classic.

Related

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The recent success of musicals and a promising trailer are enough reasons to get excited about the new Mean Girls musical remake’s release.

5 The Beekeeper

$24 – 38 million

Jason Statham cocking a handgun in The Beekeeper

The Beekeeper

Release Date
January 12, 2024

Director
David Ayer

Cast
Jason Statham , Emmy Raver-Lampman , Josh Hutcherson , Bobby Naderi , Minnie Driver , Phylicia Rashad , Jeremy Irons

Rating
R

Writers
Kurt Wimmer

Studio(s)
Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer , MiraMax , Cedar Park Studios , Punch Palace Productions

Distributor(s)
Amazon MGM Studios

Also getting released on January 12, 2024 is Jason Statham’s latest action film The Beekeeper. Statham has a pretty consistent audience that will almost certainly show up to theaters, making it very likely that he will hit his typical range of anywhere between $24 million and $36 million domestically. Several of Statham’s previous movies fall within that range, including 2021’s Wrath of Man, 2011’s Killer Elite, and 2011’s The Mechanic. Statham is following up 2023 after appearing in Fast X, Meg 2: The Trench, and the box office flop Expend4bles.

4 The Book Of Clarence

$17 – 31 million

Lakeith Stanfield in The Book of Clarence

The Book of Clarence

Release Date
January 12, 2024

Director
Jeymes Samuel

Cast
LaKeith Stanfield , Omar Sy , Anna Diop , RJ Cyler , David Oyelowo , Micheal Ward , Alfre Woodard , Teyana Taylor , Caleb McLaughlin , James McAvoy , Benedict Cumberbatch

Rating
Not Yet Rated

Runtime
136 Minutes

Writers
Jeymes Samuel

Studio(s)
Legendary Pictures , Kilburn Lane

Distributor(s)
TriStar Pictures

The Book of Clarence appears to be one of the most original movies set to hit theaters in January 2024 and will also be released on January 12th. Based on the comical tone from its trailer, the Lakeith Stanfield movie could likely produce a similar box office result as another one of his more eccentric projects Sorry to Bother You, which earned roughly $18 million domestically. The film should also draw appeal from other notable actors such as David Oyelowo, James McAvoy, and Benedict Cumberbatch who round out the cast of the Jeymes Samuel (The Harder They Fall) film.

3 I.S.S.

$5 – 19 million

I.S.S. cast

I.S.S.

Release Date
January 19, 2024

Director
Gabriela Cowperthwaite

Cast
Ariana DeBose , Chris Messina , Pilou Asbæk , John Gallagher Jr. , Costa Ronin , Maria Mashkova

Rating
R

Runtime
95 Minutes

Writers
Nick Shafir

Studio(s)
LD Entertainment

Distributor(s)
Bleecker Street

A dystopian outer space sci-fi thriller starring Ariana DeBose is set to release on January 19, 2024. The film depicts the hypothetical situation in which the United States and Russia engage in a global war causing mass destruction on Earth, forcing a group of Russian and American astronauts to fight for control of the International Space Station. While the premise does sound gripping and the trailer is certainly intense and engaging, I.S.S. likely won’t be a major hit at the box office this month. The notable space film Moonfall from 2022 was a box office disaster upon its February release.

2 Miller’s Girl

$21 – 35 million

Cairo and her friend talking on the bed in Miller's Girl

Miller’s Girl

Release Date
January 26, 2024

Director
Jade Bartlett

Cast
Martin Freeman , Jenna Ortega , Gideon Adlon , Bashir Salahuddin , Dagmara Dominczyk , Christine Adams

Runtime
93 Minutes

Writers
Jade Bartlett

Studio(s)
Point Grey Pictures

Distributor(s)
Lionsgate

One of the biggest question marks of the January 2024 box office is Miller’s Girl starring Jenny Ortega and Martin Freeman. The film, which will be released on January 26, 2024, tells the story of a student and a teacher who form a complicated relationship outside of the classroom. It’s difficult to predict how much of Ortega’s massive fanbase will turn out to theaters to see her play the boundary-pushing writing student named Cairo Sweet. Ortega’s fans could certainly make a big show of support by seeing Miller’s Girl in theaters in response to her recently withdrawing from the hugely successful Scream franchise.

Related

How Much Older Martin Freeman Is Than Jenna Ortega: Miller’s Girl Age Gap Explained

Miller’s Girl focuses on a complex teacher and student relationship and there is a significant age gap between Martin Freeman and Jenna Ortega.

1 Sometimes I Think About Dying

$12 – 26 million

Sometimes I Think About Dying

Sometimes I Think About Dying

Release Date
January 26, 2024

Director
Rachel Lambert

Cast
Katy Wright-Mead , Daisy Ridley , Dave Merheje , Parvesh Cheena , Marcia DeBonis , Meg Stalter , Brittany O’Grady

Rating
PG-13

Runtime
91 minutes

Writers
Kevin Armento , Stefanie Abel Horowitz , Katy Wright-Mead

Studio(s)
Sweet Tomato Films , Page Fifty-Four Productions , Point Productions , Mirror Image Films

Distributor(s)
Oscilloscope Laboratories

In what could be the most unexpectedly good movie of January 2024, Sometimes I Think About Dying will be released on January 26, 2024. The film actually premiered at the Sundance Film Festival in 2023 and will be released for the first time in the United States this month. Daisy Ridley gives a tour-de-force performance in this character study about a woman named Fran who struggles to find joy in anything. Sometimes I Think About Dying has been celebrated for its sobering look into depression and the blandness of everyday life, making it a sleeper pick at the January 2024 box office.

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